Posted on 06/27/2016 8:47:46 AM PDT by Maceman
The conservative blogosphere is lighting up again with accusations of polling bias against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in his race against Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. However, Trump supporters should avoid giving into this temptation to assume unfavorable results must be biased results. Clinton really is leading Trump, and by nearly 6 percentage points.
The blogospherian argument goes something like this: Clinton is leading Trump by 5 to 7 points in certain polls because the pollsters oversampled or over-weighted Democrats by about 5 to 7 points. If the polls are “corrected” to include fewer Democrats then the race is actually tied, they say.
For instance, one blogger argues that a recent CBS News poll inflated the number of Democrats in the poll, comprised of 28 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. Citing one pollster’s calculation, she thinks party identification in the United States is closer to parity, with 28 percent Republicans and only 29 percent Democrats rather than a seven-point Democratic advantage. She reasons that if you erase the partisan gap that would erase Clinton’s six-point lead over Trump.
For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
Correct, but turnout will determine the difference between D+6, where Hillary! wins and R Even or D+1, where the Republicans win.
The tipping point because the Is lean Republican will be around D+2 or D+3.
Emily Ekins is Cato...
And also do not forget the massive voter fraud factor.
Or it could be the Media is trying to bait the nevertrump crowd into turning the convention into a clusterf&#k.
I believe the polls are biased, and I believe Trump still has to convince the country he is a fine alternative to Hillary.
That is how Reagan won, by reassuring and persuading people. Emphasis on reassuring.
Plus also Hillary is not as popular as Obama was.
Trump understands that wasting money to refute everything she says is a waste at this juncture - it will just start a recycle loop of she said/he rebutted. The last 6 weeks will be crucial and have more lasting effect.
I agree, and this isn’t the same country it was when Reagan was elected. People always believe the poll results they like and disbelieve the ones that don’t suit them.
I don’t know anyone who is voting for Hellary.
Gallup reports the partisan split in America as 46 D 40 R and 14 I.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
Also, there are several months left to peel away more Democrats and placate more NeverTrump Republicans.
Of course the MSM is trying to demoralize us. But they can do it with lies or truth. In this case it is prbably true. I hear the enthusiasm for Donald diminishing. Big time and reluctantly in most cases.
They oversample Democrats because the elections oversample DEAD people
This fact of more Democrats than Republicans kind of gels with me.
I grew up hearing that Republicans don’t win without Democrat votes. Reagan was a nice example. And, Republicans have won plenty.
The numbers therefore, are not that alarming. It’s more about whom they poll and where they poll that can cough up biased numbers.
For example they probably poll heavily more blacks since the blacks are heavy voters, and probably poll hand picked regions, and hand picked counties in those regions, perhaps.
Anyway, who’s listening to Lefty writers and TV pundits?
The Lefty media is still actually filming TRUMP in living color and on Live TV, so what TRUMP is saying is getting out there even on CNN and MSNBC, and what he says is interesting, and, it’s resonating. Hillary is filmed also, but they show her looking like a whale in hiding, rising up to spray off boring insults and sinking back under water for days.
In a way, except for the pundits, the Left media is not helping Hillary on film. She is shown always as the bore she is. TRUMP remains brilliant and persuasive with his common sense positions and they are showing plenty of TRUMP energy.
The polls were right in the last 2 elections. Why should this election be any different?
I think with Trump at the campaign helm, the efforts to true the vote will be more competent than they were under Mitt or McCain.
Then there are those who register opposite Democrat, but vote Republican, because lying to a Democrat pollster is your honorable duty.
If the polls are not biased then why don’t they include the breakdown of respondents. Blanket numbers are meaningless.
Suppose they polled only at 3:00PM just who would their respondents be? What would that poll show?
Polling a high percentage of dumo’s would most certainly skew the outcome. Beside the polls are made for a news purpose only or to push the vote one way or another.
When I see main stream media run polls that are D+ 18% and 17% over R, and I see almost a 15% spread between female v. male voters, it’s tantamount to outright lying. This person doesn’t know what the heck she is talking about.
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