Posted on 06/26/2016 3:33:18 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Putting Hillary over the 50% mark will be a big deal for her campaign to tout on the media trail, and a twelve point deficit is a rather glum number to saddle Trump with. And despite the sampling used (which we’ll get to in a minute) this is the same poll that had Trump up by 2 a month ago. Still, the methodology matters and this one will be open to some of the same questions. .
The survey was conducted June 20-23 and we’re going to see some of the same issues raised about this poll as with the Reuters one. The sample size is fine, at roughly 1,000 respondents, but the demographics are rather dubious. They included 36-24-33 Democrats, Republicans and independents for the full sample and 37-27-30 DRI among registered voters. Even granting the Democrats a built-in party advantage for the general election, that’s a pretty wide spread in Clinton’s favor.
You can also draw comparisons between the ABC survey and the new Wall Street Journal / NBC poll which came out at the same time.
This one has a far more balanced spread in terms of the sample rates, was held during the same time period and used the same number of respondents. (The WSJ poll reflects a roughly D+4 spread while ABC’s is up around a dozen.) but it’s still essentially within the margin of error, showing a very tight race. And people are noticing the disparity of of the party split between the two polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
The media love to stroke themselves with this sort of thing, but there’s only ONE poll that makes any difference at all, and that’s the election.
Her supporters are upside-down and backwards. But seriously, I do think an indictment would not necessarily hurt her in the polls. She would spin it as a witch hunt (okay, she'd probably call it something else), and come out of the news stronger. Bill Clinton came out of impeachment, stronger. Who knew, being a convicted liar under oath is a badge of honor. I will remember that, should I find myself asked to give truthful testimony. The ends justify the means ... and that, as the say, is that.
"Mrs. Clinton’s lead fell to one point, at 39% to Mr. Trump’s 38%, when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are part of the mix. With both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump saddled with low approval ratings, voters seem to be looking for alternatives. Together, Mr. Johnson and Ms. Stein were the choice of 16% of those who took part in the survey."
The headline number is of the 2 way race. But it's not a 2-way race. It's a 4-way race, with the Greens and Libertarians. I doubt Johnson will win 10% in November but I'd be surprised if he doesn't do better than the 0.99% he won last time.
What I carry away from this is that at -1% Trump is doing amazingly well, considering the kind of week he had.
(If the Democrats are really 54% of voters now, I'm going to quit working and wait for all my free stuff to arrive.)
I agree with everything you said. It’s hard to be here in Florida and see Trump get pounded with negative ads all day every day; Then watch the Rino’s and MSM collude against him.
Personally, I think he has made a few mistakes the past 2 months. He let the IG report go without jumping all over her for it; instead he was entangled in the “mexican judge” bs. He handled it wrong; he never mentioned La Raza, and he paid the price. Also, in spite of what many think about spending ad money in June, I think he is mistaken not fighting back on those attack ads. They are very effective in a state like Florida and they will leave a mark.
He really needs to get it in gear from here on out. And he is going to need a lot of money. The MSM is not going to give him the free earned media he had in the primaries; and he has no control over it. They can shut him out and will; they will talk about what they want to talk about.
In a perfect world, every one of his 13 million primary voters would donate $20 and put $260 million in his campaign tomorrow. I think he also needs to write a very big check himself. It’s one thing to fight a smart, frugal campaign; it’s quite another to go up against $1-2 billion with one hand tied behind your back.
I thought the title of the piece was a shame, given everything he wrote about the polls. Click bait I guess.
It looks like pajama boy.
The Reagan-Carter contest was “too close to call” going into the 1980 Presidential election.
Yes, we know that.
Trump is a VERY smart guy people have the attention span of a knat!!! Trump WILL start In on her in Sept. When people are paying attention!!! All of the money she and her pacs are spending NOW is wasted let them blow the money people of today with ALL of the devices they have don’t retain any info for long!!! Trump will go after her unmercifully and his money will be spent wisely at the RIGHT TIME!!!
After 2008 and 2012 you can't trust the "All the polls are fixed" people
Really, are things so quiet that we are looking at polls in June.
They don’t matter until Labor Day.
Well then. There goes the election.
Excellent analysis on your part. We pooh pooed the polls in 2008 and 2012 at our peril. We have to assume Trump is trailing and do everything in our power to vote Trump into office. 2016 is the last chance to save America as a sovereign republic.
30% of the sample is Independent?
BS.
Most so-called independents are liberals who want to appear as intellectuals.
Therefore this poll is really sampled 2-1 libs over republicans.
Also, having maintaining in polling and survey validity and reliability, please consider the goals and agenda of those poll creators. If they don’t like the profile they hear on the phone then they hang up on them. Nowhere is the record of how the sample was formed? Number of phone calls? Number of dems who hung up on them? Number of Rs who hung up on them? Proof of one’s voting registration in the party they named? They handpicked their sample, shaped and massaged it to their liking...
The only poll I like is a Pole from Warsaw.
They lie lie lie lie lie lie
From Faux Non-news
And brexit who vote remain, no doubt!
when did bernie conceed??
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