Additional Reference / Covers Delegates Allotted to Date
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Posted on 06/08/2016 8:45:37 AM PDT by drop 50 and fire for effect
Out of curiosity, I compared GOP and Dem turnout in the primaries and the general election in the last dual contested primary year, 2008 with this year primary results.
While this is not a true statistical model, and relies on incomplete Wikipedia data, it provides a sense of enthusiasm gap between the two parties.
2008
GOP Primary Vote 20,039,034 (36.12% of turnout)
Dem Primary Vote 35,442,193 (63.88% of turnout)
In the General election, Obama won 53.65 over McCain's 46.31%.
2016
GOP Primary Vote 28,836,337 (50.67% of turnout, an increase of 8.7M voters)
Dem Primary Vote 28,072,793 (49.33% of turnout, a decrease of 7.3M voters)
My take on this is while the focus of the media has been on Trump's periodic verbal diarrhea, the real story is the collapse of Democrat enthusiasm. While Sanders supporters are vocal, they are a minority in thier own party, and Hillary gets the majority of a shrinking pie.
I also suspect that while a lot of GOP voters don't like Trump, they will turn out for him and against Hillary. (Full disclosure- I am not a Trump supporter, but I consider him the cauliflower (edible but nasty) to Hillary's hemlock, and will vote for him in November.)
I am interested in other people's interpretation of these numbers. While the electoral vote matters in the end, popular vote winners only lose the EV if the election is very close.
As for the Berned Bernie supporters I think a sizable number of them will move to Trump. I'm not talking about the brain dead millennials, but the rank and file democrats who voted for him because they are as fed up with the DC establishment as Trump's supporters are. It's all anecdotal, I admit, but I can't tell you how many voters I saw interviewed on news shows who said they were trying to decide between Trump and Bernie. With Bernie gone I'd bet that 10-15% of his support migrates to Trump. I also think that the same number will just stay home.
Donald Trump might be God’s mercy to an entertainment-addicted society. If it has to have snow-cones of spectacle offered to it in order to come into a half-sensible tent, then it will.
We can’t keep up like this long term, but something has to be the turning point.
On the surface, those numbers would point to a Trump landslide in November. But other interpretations would include:
1. Republican turn-out was so high because it was heavily contested, with 17 candidates initially. Plus, once it was narrowed, there were enough zealots for each of the candidates remaining, that it drove continued high turnout. When it narrowed to 2, the pro-Trump and anti-Trump passions were high, as were those for/against Cruz (but to a lesser extent). That kept turnout high, as the contest went on so long.
2. On the Dem side, you have the “vote for any female” block that’s been just waiting for this historic moment, so “H” got some number of enthusiasts out for her. But I think those same folks will turn out in the same numbers in November, so the lower overall turnout doesn’t bode well for her. Bernie’s was truly a movement about socialism, and the continued economic ills Obama’s “leadership” created. These malcontents are convinced of a zero-sum game: they’re facing hardships because the rich people, or something. In fact, the Dem’s entire appeal to this mass is that all ills are traced back to the greed of the 1%. But NEITHER of these groups are large in number, and the bulk of the Dems look at the current party make-up and say “that’s not me, and that’s not who I am” - so they stayed home. This should also continue in November.
So the real questions to me are:
- how many newly created and highly-motivated pro-Trump voters will there be?
- how many of the anti-Trump Repubs from the primaries will hold their nose and vote anti-Hillary (for Trump)?
- how many anti-Hillary Dems will vote for Trump?
- how many on both sides will stay home?
- wildcard: will Hillary face indictment?
I think there is more excitement and support for Trump (net of the small but vocal “never Trump” crowd) than Hillary’s “first woman president” group.
I think the Bernie supports will split - some supporting any Dem (including Hillary) before any Repub (regardless of Trump). Others, and in large numbers, will never vote Hillary - or any other ESTABLISHMENT candidate. Here, Trump could snare some defectors. But the big message here is that pro-Bernie will NOT mean pro-Hillary.
Finally, there are more registered Dems than Repubs now than in 2008 and 2012 - both in real numbers, and a percentages of voting-age people. That’s a real, structural deficit that has to be overcome by the other facts, above.
Trump in a squeeker - unless he does something monumentally stupid.
What muslim or other 3rd world dictator will shake her hand, let alone respect her as a POTUS? THAT is a key to why she must not win. That and her purposeful dissolution of the US...TPP.
Then, there’s the military.
We will be Venezuela.
Additional Reference / Covers Delegates Allotted to Date
Click on the graphic for the source. You can right click view, to see a larger version of a specific graphic.
My take is Hillary only needs 765,000 fraudulent votes to become the next dictator.
I disagree that sander's supporters just gave up on that news. They are slavishly obsessed and are convinced that they are dead right. That would drive a stronger turnout not weaken one.
IMO it isn't over. They will not quit, just change direction, It's a classic revolutionary's tactic.
As someone else pointed out, the judge would fail the jury test due to his associations....
Racism covers any disagreement with liberals or membership in the wrong social group.
Trump cannot win in Cali because the huge number of illegals there will be herded to the polls and they have LEGAL access to the election vy virtue of the fact that they can legally vote in California for state and local issues and candidates. All those things are on the same ballot with Presidential and Congressional election choices. The registrars in Cali tell the registering illegals to go ahead and vote the whole ticket because “who will know?”
Have you considered the possibility that some of that $$$ was spent to dissuade people from voting?
Absolutely, the money is spent to influence voting by the swayable. Convincing them to not vote is still convincing them one way or the other. But I think maybe the biggest reason is that most folks just don’t care. And maybe things would actually be worse if more people voted. Supposedly the 10% of dumbest voters decide elections, the ones that vote one and then another for reasons that they usually can’t explain coherently. So if more people voted, maybe the swing voter % just goes up.
Freegards
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