Posted on 06/08/2016 8:45:37 AM PDT by drop 50 and fire for effect
Out of curiosity, I compared GOP and Dem turnout in the primaries and the general election in the last dual contested primary year, 2008 with this year primary results.
While this is not a true statistical model, and relies on incomplete Wikipedia data, it provides a sense of enthusiasm gap between the two parties.
2008
GOP Primary Vote 20,039,034 (36.12% of turnout)
Dem Primary Vote 35,442,193 (63.88% of turnout)
In the General election, Obama won 53.65 over McCain's 46.31%.
2016
GOP Primary Vote 28,836,337 (50.67% of turnout, an increase of 8.7M voters)
Dem Primary Vote 28,072,793 (49.33% of turnout, a decrease of 7.3M voters)
My take on this is while the focus of the media has been on Trump's periodic verbal diarrhea, the real story is the collapse of Democrat enthusiasm. While Sanders supporters are vocal, they are a minority in thier own party, and Hillary gets the majority of a shrinking pie.
I also suspect that while a lot of GOP voters don't like Trump, they will turn out for him and against Hillary. (Full disclosure- I am not a Trump supporter, but I consider him the cauliflower (edible but nasty) to Hillary's hemlock, and will vote for him in November.)
I am interested in other people's interpretation of these numbers. While the electoral vote matters in the end, popular vote winners only lose the EV if the election is very close.
At the chance of being called a racist, my take is that
race played a larger role than today’s feminist role.
Get ready for your next “historic” president.
I do not believe they will cross over to Trump. It is not in their genes.
hillary-dillary was always the presumptive dhimmi nominee. The numbers reflect the prevailing attitude by leftists to that proposition.
In the general however you’ll see the gap made up with dead votes for sHrillary!
It’s like America was falling all over itself to prove it wasn’t racist, even though the first “racially special” candidate would probably have been beat out by 9 out of 10 otherwise Constitutionally qualified people of that same, er, people group chosen from the Chicago phone book.
An America focused on the superficial had a bogosity foisted on it.
Trump is striving to win in both worlds. He is the bread and the circuses all in one.
The smart ones will who are versant on the TPP.
I dunno; Trump tacks well into changing winds. I think Trump could come up with a “Hillary and the Democrats really screwed you” appeal and peel off at least some of the Bernites.
“At the chance of being called a racist, my take is that race played a larger role than today’s feminist role.”
Well if it is racist to state the facts, then I suppose its racist, but in your defense, a lot and I do mean a lot of people that supported Oblahblah did so only because of the color of skin and with no knowledge of qualifications, background, or intentions for the country.
A lot of people that voted for him to be “historic” aren’t necessarily “feeling it” for her Thighness - Thankfully.
Not to sound proverbial, but I think this election represents a true turning point. I had thought, and it still can happen, this would be a Trump landslide. But after watching the pounding he has been taking the last few days by not only the media, but his own party, I think he can prevail but it will be a very tough slog. He is shining the lights on the cockroaches in our country...the media, the establishment, the free traders and those that want to see the demise of the United States through open, unfettered illegal immigration with no borders, and they don’t like the spotlight. Many of the aforementioned are being taken out of their cushy, comfort zone. As they say, you know you’re over the target when you receive the most flak, and Trump is taking, and has taken, and incredible amount of incoming. It will take all of our support and pressure to bear to make sure he crosses the finish line in November.
Nothing racist about it.
Female politicians are old hat. Thatcher, Gandhi, Merkel, Bhutto, Gillard, et al.
We’ve had female governors everywhere and in Congress, as the wizened Feinstein and Pelosi demonstrate. Hillary is (or appears) as old as they so the Female Factor has even less impact due to her haggard features, sausage fingers, Dutch Boy haircut and shapeless Mao suits. The only thing remotely feminine about her is that icepick-frequency voice. She and her team know it’s a huge turnoff and she strains mightily to keep it in a low register but that’s impossible to do when shouting. And she does a lot of shouting.
At some point a basic trust factor has to kick in as a voter asks ‘Would I trust this person to take $10 to the store for a gallon of milk and to return the change?’ In the case of Obama and many socialists the voter might even believe that the candidate would get the milk but return the entire $10. But even so-called pro-Hillary voters know that Hillary’s first thought would be to abscond with the money, forget the milk and blame the voter for asking in the first place.
Supposedly the last time 65% of eligible US voters voted in national elections was back in 1908, less for state and local. It hasn’t broken that since, a lot of them being below 55%. At least by any thing that I have seen.
Nobody really seems to care that millions and millions in campaign money is spent to convince the swayable to vote one way or the other, and we still haven’t broken the bottom line 65% eligible voter turnout in 108 years. That is pretty amazing to me. I wonder if active primary races translate to higher general election turnout, and if this cycle will have better turnout in the general.
Freegards
There’s definitely a difference in enthusiasm with the Republican’s benefiting this time. Other than the hardcore Demobots that pull the lever every election, many of the others will stay home and not vote for Biden.
Listen....people.....Bernie Sanders got set-up, and royally screwed by Hillary Clinton, the Democrat Establishement Political Party and the Associated Press (AP). They all were in full cahoot mode, and teamed up to release a bulletin, the night before the big Tuesday POTUS Primaries, annoucing that a number of Democrat “Super Delegates” has publicly declared their support and votes for Hillay Clinton to become the Democrat, POTUS nominee!!!
This underhanded effort had the effect of causing many Bernie Sanders supporters, to stay home and not vote on Primary election day, when Sanders needed the votes most urgently. The underhanded back room charades, of the crooked, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat party & the Associated Press, caused Sanders to get a weaker turnout of voters, then he expected.
Bernie & you supporters of “The Bern”, you all need to come to the grip of reality...that you have been used and abused and, actually have had votes withheld from your candidate, Sanders....wake up, fools, Hillary Clinton and her most evil cohorts, have done you all, in!!! Go Figure!!!
We have not had a candidate present such circuses as Donald. Some people may want to vote for him just for the entertainment value. (Yes, he has a lot more than circuses to offer, but sometimes the party of the Big Tent needs a carnie barker to get people to come into it.)
The enthusiasm is entirely attributable to Trump.
Still he has a tough slog and is running in an environment where the Left has won the last two presidential elections without breaking a sweat.
He’s going to be under the microscope while Hillary will get a pass. That’s just the way things are.
In a word, to win in November, Trump is going to have to work harder than he’s ever worked in his entire life. We’ll see how much he really wants the job soon enough.
So he’s going to be the entertainer under the microscope.
America has gotten superficial, easily amused. A lesser man would disdain the scene with contempt. But Donald isn’t wasting that opportunity.
I’ve noticed that today, there is a definite lack of news articles predicting tonight’s outcome.
I guess they are all holding their breath, waiting to see if their ‘tactic’ was successful.
Being on reality TV and pro-wrestling for years might be the only way to get people who never engaged in voting to pay attention in 2016. He certainly has a leg up in name recognition. We’ll see if it’s a massive turnout, I think maybe a lot of folks are paying attention that never did before. This might be the only time where a big turnout is going to be good for our side, maybe.
Freegards
Your assessment on the CA. vote is EXACTLY correct!!! Bernie and Shillery both in my area last week, Bernie drew 10,000, Hillary 400 in a high school gym!!! I hope the Bernie supporters are PISSED enough to have a protest vote for Trump!!!! If Trump gets just 4% of them to switch he WILL win the election!!! Trump will NEVER get CA. he NEEDS to concentrate on FL. MI. OH. WI. PA. if he can pull those states the election IS HIS!!!!
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