Posted on 05/05/2016 12:22:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate - women, millennials, independents and Latinos - make him the initial November underdog.
As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats. Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.
With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic - enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence.
Nevada, for example, has proven hostile to Republicans in the last two presidential elections thanks to a rapidly growing non-white electorate. However, some early polling shows Trump performing better with whites there than previous GOP nominees. Still, we are skeptical Trump can ultimately win there.
| Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Toss Up | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 STATES | 2 STATES* | 6 STATES | 4 STATES* | 2 STATES | 2 STATES | 19 STATES | ||||||
|
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maine-AL (2)
Maine-01 (1)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Mexico (5)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12) |
Maine-02 (1)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
|
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
|
Iowa (6)
Nebraska-02 (1)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
|
Arizona (11)
Georgia (16) |
Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)
|
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska-AL (2)
Nebraska-01 (1)
Nebraska-03 (1)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3) |
||||||
|
190 votes |
27 votes |
87 votes |
44 votes |
27 votes |
21 votes |
142 votes |
This is just one estimate, but analysis is welcome.
The key is Florida. Trump needs a popular running mate from Florida. Hate to say it but he needs Rubio.
WAY too early for Mr. Cook.
Any and all analysis of this type, regardless of result is BS at this point.
Ignore the horse race analysis until after the conventions and after Labor Day.
Trump and Rubio combined got more primary votes in Fla than the witch and the commie. But the witch got more than Trump. Trump should make a deal with Rubio. Something like this: Trump promises to be a one termer if Rubio jouns the ticket.
I use the Windows Snipping Tool to grab the Cook Report image and then upload the image to tinypic.com. Tinypic will give you a link to the image that you can then embed in a standard HTML image tag. Pretty easy actually.
And the pundits have been so spot on this election cycle
PS in 1980 Reagan was a guaranteed loser to President Carter
They WISH!
Remember Charlie Cook is a Democrat operative.
“The key is Florida. Trump needs a popular running mate from Florida. Hate to say it but he needs Rubio.”
Rubio LOST Florida, didn’t he? NONE of us needs Rubio! He is wholly owned by the open border lobby!
As a long time Floridian, and one who helped get Rubio elected to the Senate....you are wrong about Rubio being popular in Florida.
The only places Rubio is a little popular is in states other than Florida, only because they know VERY little about him OR they have lots of folks who are in favor of amnesty.
Remember, Donald Trump won the Florida Primary and took every county but 1. Miami/Dade the liberal capitol of the Sunshine state went to the amnesty candidates.
IMO, Rubio as VP will NOT help at all!
Need to see exactly how many votes Rubio pulled out of Miami-Dade.
That is the only place Rubio is helpful, but it is the 1st or 2nd largest vote base.
Rubio got 600,000 votes in Florida. You understand that the person with the most votes wins, right? Doesn’t matter anyway, Trump understands it.
That might imply Kasich is a better VP choice, helping to capture OH.
First, this should not be ignored. Trump had to do a lot of work to win the primaries in so many states. The upcoming election is not magic, where Trump can coast until November and win. Trump has to work even harder for a win in the general election.
Second, this article is not decisive. This is not based on recent polls, and the polls they have are old and not representative of reality. Trump is not guaranteed a loss just because of this dated analysis.
Rubio pulled 660k votes in Florida with 120k in Miami-Dade to 40k for Trump. Moreover Rubio is attractive to young voters and Hispanics. If Trump wants to win Rubio is his bet bet. If he wants to lose he can run with Pat Buchanan.
Rubio got 120k votes in Dade compared to Trumps 40k.
“Rubio got 600,000 votes in Florida. You understand that the person with the most votes wins, right? Doesn’t matter anyway, Trump understands it.”
Stop being a smart ass.
Trump beat the crap out of Rubio in Florida! 45.7%
1,077,221
Rubio 27%
Rubio was the homeboy and couldn’t win! RUBIO is a trojan horse. The man shouldn’t be in the COUNTRY much less the Senate or anywhere in this government. And IF you know what Rubio is, you’re one too for even offering him up for anything!
The Rubio deception
https://klsouth.wordpress.com/2014/07/19/refresher-rubios-deceptions/
What TRUMP understands, but you seem to ignore, is RUBIO and the people, Conda/Norquist who OWN him IS THE ENEMY.
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