Posted on 05/05/2016 12:22:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate - women, millennials, independents and Latinos - make him the initial November underdog.
As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats. Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.
With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic - enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence.
Nevada, for example, has proven hostile to Republicans in the last two presidential elections thanks to a rapidly growing non-white electorate. However, some early polling shows Trump performing better with whites there than previous GOP nominees. Still, we are skeptical Trump can ultimately win there.
This will be a problem in all the battleground states:
Reposted today:
More Florida voter fraud? 3000 registrations list UPS stores as residence (Vote Twice!)
May 5, 2016 4:29:52 PM EDT · by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies · 1 replies
Allen West ^ | April 26, 2014 | Allen West
5/4/2016, 1:36:27 PM · 506 of 581
Red Steel to mountainfolk
It was Fox News, Fox & Friends who brought up the NE Oswald picture. They asked Trump a direct question.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3427382/posts?page=506#506
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It was Cruz the day he lost Indiana when he blamed Trump whe he said Trump unsolicited for bringing up the National Enquirer article. No it was Brian Kilmeade who asked Trump a direct question about it. You have to go to the original sources to get the news when they talk about Trump, and not some idiotic Lib and Con media doing anti-Trump articles who have axes to grind.
Wrong, he had 30K less, sorry.
But he was still competing with many candidates, so not apples to apples.
Jacksonville is a military town and recently voted in a conservative mayor. Also remember the Cuban community is apt to be feeling betrayed by the democrats actions with regards to Cuba. I have no doubts about Florida going to Trump.
If the survey is wrong about Florida it is likely to be wrong about other States as well.
Calling the Trump campaign staff; priority to deal with.
Good grief. This seems to be the dream result for Democrats. Where’s the science behind this?
Let me know their response, there is much more trouble where that came from.
TKU
Come on buddy wake up.The voters of florida didn’t even want rufeeo by over a million votes.
Great Charlie Cook has called the election so I guess we don’t need to bother voting.
I saw that too and called bullshit.We just didn’t vote for romnuts like we were told to do.
Another Republican consultant? Lord you people are dense.
I don’t think Bernie voters will go Hillary.
Biggest question is how many stay home?
Next question is will Philadelphia have 130% turnout?
Currently polling spells doom. However it’s very early. It’s time to open a can of whoopa$$ on Mrs. Clinton. Make that an entire case.
I agree about Rubio...only solid choice. But I think Trump will carry Florida anyway.
Rubio is an empty suit who is not popular here in Florida.
Actually Broward and Leon counties are much more Democrat voting than Miami-Dade. Otherwise you are spot on. No to Rubio.
Cubans are a minority of the state’s Hispanic population now. Orlando are moving left due to huge influx of Puerto Ricans.
Thanks for letting me know. I knew Broward and Leon were a lot liberal, but still thought Miami-Dade was top on the list.
I believe Marco Rubio is most likely thinking about what job he could possibly get in a Trump administration. If that is true he would be wise to give Trump a call and come out in unity of the party move, and urge his delegates to support Trump. Rubio, Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns and I believe their won delegates are still bound to them.
Obama won Broward by 260,000 votes, Dade by 210,000 votes and Leon by 35,000 votes. In those three counties Rubio got 50,000 more votes than Trump and in Dade 70,000 more. That’s the reality.
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