Posted on 04/28/2016 8:35:24 AM PDT by mandaladon
Cruz and allies have five days to stop Trump
When Ted Cruz unveiled Carly Fiorina as his running mate on Wednesday, and when he struck that alliance/truce with John Kasich on Sunday night, they were from a position of weakness – not strength. The reason: If Cruz and the “Stop Trump” movement don’t win in Indiana on May 3, they’re done. It’s that simple. After Trump ran the table in Tuesday’s primaries, including getting at least 35 of the 54 Pennsylvania unbound delegates (and that number could go above 40), a win in Indiana – even by a single point – would put him on a glide path to 1,237 delegates. So those are the big stakes for next week’s primary in the Hoosier State. But you have to give the Cruz campaign credit: Given that must-win situation, they’re trying every trick in the book (early VP pick, alliance) to win. But when you throw that “Hail Mary” and the pass falls incomplete, the game is usually over.
How Trump can get shut out of Indiana but still get to 1,237
But here’s the thing: Even if Trump gets shut out in Indiana, he still has a viable path to 1,237. Trump is currently sitting at 991 delegates after Tuesday. Now consider the following contests:
Indiana: 0/57 Nebraska: 0/36 West Virginia: 34/34 Oregon: 14/28 Washington: 22/44 California: 120/172 Montana: 0/27 New Jersey: 51/51 New Mexico: 10/24 South Dakota: 0/29
So if you add up those numbers with Trump’s current delegate haul, you get 1,242 – five more delegates than the 1,237 he needs for a majority on the first ballot. Here’s the current delegate math:
Trump holds a 427-delegate lead over Cruz
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
The thing is, I wasn’t even touting Trump, just saying that it looked like Cruz was finished, and that naming a VP candidate in the wake of Tuesday’s dismal performance looked kind of silly. I get the impression that if two or more people do an “@troll” on your posts, NR will just ban you, no questions asked, no matter what your posting history shows. I think that is an abomination. It gives way too much power to a handful of hotheads.
I read your comment about Fiorina and keeping face and, well...
A thought hit me about why would you want to keep that face and I chastised myself for being mean and petty...
:)
Good post! Kudos!
“That’s Funny, I see Cruz picking Fiorina as a way to LOSE GRACEFULLY and still keep face.”
I wonder if Cruz will blame Fiorina if it turns out bringing her onboard made his poll numbers tank...?
People don’t vote for VP or McCain would have won.
> Cruz just now was introducing Carly saying how qualified she is to bring back jobs
Yeah, as long as you’re not white and from India.
I don't know? For some unknown reason Cruz's superpack gave Fiorina $500,000. Maybe they also wanted to demonstrate to their donors that this money was not completely wasted? With Cruz without some type of hidden motive things often do not seem to ad up. I am just glad that someone finally got the word to Glenn Beck that he needed to back off.
When Cruz and his GOP leadership allies took Wisconsin and then managed to steal Colorado and Wyoming it looked like they had a chance to derail Trump. But at this point it has all morphed into some type of deranged misadventure. Cruz is only in his mid 40s and is a very talented up and comer. At this point he needs a way out to salvage what is left of his career. Maybe as you say, “Cruz picking Fiorina” is “a way to LOSE GRACEFULLY and still keep face.”
...it won't end well.
At least 140-150. A Fox poll of California from last week has Trump at 49, Cruz at 22 and Kasich at 20.
That’s before the five state drubbing on Tuesday.
If I had a sponsor, I would challenge any one of them to a debate on whether or not Donald Trump is genuinely Conservative--more genuinely Conservative than those nominally conservative detractors;--and expect an easy win.
To understand why it is clear to me that Donald is for real, here: Trump: Metaphor For American Conservatism.
You would not have been banned from the NR website, if the pathetic poseurs taking the magazine to ruin, actually could argue their claims convincingly. They cannot! Therefore they dare not actually engage in a reasoned two way conversation.
Trump will win big in Indiana. Everyone now knows that Cruz is in the same boat as Kasich, having to win more delegates than there are available. His whole alliance with Kasich, and his Fiorina pick both reek of desperation. Trump has the momentum, having won 6 of the last 6 primaries with vote totals well over 50 percent. Most people like voting for a winner, and Cruz is definitely a loser.
The more he opens his mouth, the more people get turned off. This morning was over the top. I am so disgusted by this snake oil salesman.
“Cruz picking Fiorina” is “a way to LOSE GRACEFULLY and still keep face.”
I can find NO other plausible or Logical reason to pick her, unless he plans on Offshoring His Campaign.
Don't want to stoop to psycho-babble; but, really, such obsessive behavior directed at someone who is drawing millions of new people to the Conservative side, reflects at the least extreme paranoia, if not actual insanity. That is, when it comes from those claiming to be "Conservatives."
I was up to my eye-balls in 1964 in the Goldwater campaign; and am used to the anti-Conservative behavior of Republican "me too" types. But this self-destructive, obsessive, behavior among those who have long posed as Conservatives is virtually unparalleled in our political history.
You’re better off here, anyway ;)
Trouble with that strategy is the yuuuge 5 state loss just BEFORE the desperation move of choosing Snarly. Still you could be right. I have not found the "genius" to be particularly bright.
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