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The Unfavorability Illusion
Scott Adams' Blog ^ | April 26th, 2016 @ 9:58am | Scott Adams

Posted on 04/27/2016 6:47:10 AM PDT by snarkpup

Now let’s talk about Trump’s sky-high unfavorability rating that hovers around 70%. Trump haters use that figure as their last hope. No one can get elected with such high negatives, they say.

That is cognitive dissonance. And it is one of the cleanest examples you will ever see. I’ll tell you why.

...

When the race gets down to a clean Trump versus Clinton contest, and people realize there are no other options, the comparison changes. Trump wins the matchup against “crooked Hillary” with ease, based on skill, not policies. You haven’t even imagined that contest yet. Your brain won’t let you.

Trump does NOT win against your imaginary unicorn candidate that is a conflation of good qualities from other people. But that unicorn won’t be running against him.

You’re already hearing the word “landslide” applied to the upcoming Republican primaries. By October you will hear that Trump is “running unopposed” for all practical purposes.

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.dilbert.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; dilbert; donaldtrump; election2016; hillaryclinton; megynkelly; newyork; presidentdonaldtrump; scottadams; tedcruz; trump
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To: Biggirl

Option 4: Vote Hillary

She’ll probably end up with 80%+ of his voters who actually intended to vote.

They are socialists and Hillary remains their best bet. Most will get over their butt hurt and vote for her, but many who have to go to some effort to register, absentee ballot, etc. won’t bother.


41 posted on 04/27/2016 11:13:34 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: SampleMan

It is at best 50-50, she is not liked by them, but that is an observation.


42 posted on 04/27/2016 11:17:51 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: PapaBear3625

It’s not either or, it’s hierarchy of needs. Crime is important to women and their security, but again, affording basic necessities for single women, particularly those with children, is paramount.


43 posted on 04/27/2016 11:34:11 AM PDT by twister881 (Politics)
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To: PapaBear3625

I’m also not surprised. She knows his record, apparently.


44 posted on 04/27/2016 12:26:34 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: kingu

Cruz.


45 posted on 04/27/2016 12:27:17 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: cuban leaf

And your thoughts on Senator Cruz’s impending announcement of Carly Fiorina as his VP choice?


46 posted on 04/27/2016 12:33:58 PM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: kingu

I heard the speech on the radio on the way home. The guy would NOT shut up!


47 posted on 04/27/2016 5:10:19 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: kingu

So out of curiosity, who is your candidate for November’s national elections


One that is all of the things you mentioned, but the two most important to me, and that you didn’t mention:

1. Will eliminate Obamacare.
2. Will phase out alcohol in gasoline.


48 posted on 04/27/2016 5:13:54 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: babygene

I’m not cuban. I like cuban cigars. ;)


49 posted on 04/27/2016 5:14:34 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: Lucas McCain

You’re only pretending to be a strong conservative. Your kind of thinking gave us Obama.


You are projecting and your post is irony. Those that strongly support Trump tend to be coming from the same emotional place as those who strongly supported Obama. That is actually the main problem I have. It is not with Trump. It is with, not all, but is with the more rabid, emotional supporters. I’ve heard them on talk radio. They can’t justify their vote for him and are “talked down off the ledge” every time I hear them. Well, sort of. They admit things like , “well, gee, I guess the other R candidates are against opening the borders too. But, like, he’s gonna build a wall and make Mexico pay for it!”

I feel bad for them, but the difference between them and the Obama supporters in 2008 is that they cower and admit they don’t really know what they thought they knew. The rabid obama supporters, when exposed, simply went off on expletive laced rants.


50 posted on 04/27/2016 5:19:10 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: Mollypitcher1

Nice to see your public display of STUPIDITY!


Nice to see your public display of ad-hominem.

Does anyone have an original idea here?


51 posted on 04/27/2016 5:22:10 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: JerseyDvl

You and your wife are trolls and sellouts who only get in the way of Making America Great Again so just opus out and leave the heavy lifting to REAL AMERICANS. Later Traitor.


Seriously? What happened to civility on this site. If you disagree with me, fine, but the name calling is simply way too DUesque.

I believe FR is above that. We’ll see, I guess.

There really has been a change in the level of discourse since I joined in 1998. That is disappointing, but the web has changed a LOT in 18 years, in a lot of very good ways.


52 posted on 04/27/2016 5:25:07 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: cuban leaf

Perhaps he could do something about those issues when he shows back up at the senate. Though I imagine that his attention will likely be focused on retaining his senate seat once the presidential campaign is over with.


53 posted on 04/27/2016 5:31:28 PM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: cuban leaf

Obviously you prefer Hillary so don’t try to pretend you’re conservative.


54 posted on 04/27/2016 5:34:09 PM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: Mollypitcher1

Obviously you prefer Hillary so don’t try to pretend you’re conservative.


Really? Sounds like you have me all figured out. FWIW, I got her to actually make eye contact with me when she took her health care gauntlet to Seattle in the early 90’s. I was able to get into the section close to her that was supposed to be her supporters. I’ve been following her escapades since Bill became the D nominee.

And I used to work at Fort Knox, where we had training on NIPR vs SIPR. She needs to be in prison on the email thing alone.

Regarding me “wanting” her to be president, the only way I’d want her to be president is in the vein of, “in a democracy you not only get the government you want. You get the government you deserve.” If the country deserves her, it will get her. Otherwise it wouldn’t. But I put my confidence in no man. Rather, it is in the Lord. He is in control, though his MO is to let a people suffer the consequences of their bad choices, giving them an opportunity to turn to Him.

Hopefully we’ve done that and will dodge the Hillary bullet.

But if you notice my tag line, I don’t really worry too much about the election. A hint of why is in my vanity from June of 2014:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3170217/posts


55 posted on 04/27/2016 5:45:53 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: kingu

Perhaps he could do something about those issues when he shows back up at the senate


Not if Hillary of Trump is the president. Neither of them want to stop either. Look up Trumps comments about where health insurance should go in the future. Juxtapose his position against Cruz’s words AND actions.

One of the things Cruz did that I LIKED was letting the government shut down. He was looking to the long game, not the quick win. The quick win is dangerous. the D’s got it with Obama. His election has decimated the D party. IOW, It is not just important to win. You must win with the right candidate or, as the D’s learned, in the long run you lose.


56 posted on 04/27/2016 5:48:37 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: cuban leaf
Trump is about my forty-fifth choice in a field of seventeen. I don't like him. I cannot abide his incivility and rudeness and atrocious language nor the utterly impolitic and discourteous behavior of his enthusiasts. I think of Trump as a slightly reformed Manhattan liberal and that is no compliment.

OTOH, I am conservative and generally stubborn. I refused to vote for Moral Monster Mitt Romney last time because he was certainly the worst "Republican" ever nominated for POTUS and the purest creature of undiluted evil. Whatever Trump may be, he is NOT Romney. Likewise he is not Hitlery. Other than 2012, this is the worst choice of probable nominees in my rather long lifetime.

I take it that you and your wife have reasons rooted in morality, taste and actual conservatism for determining to never vote for Trump. Your final voting decisions are obviously yours to make and not really any of my business other than that the results of this election will affect us all. In that spirit, I offer the following: 1. We are conservatives and will still be conservatives when this fiasco is over When the landscape is littered with millions of disappointed and broken broken Trump loving hearts whether via losing to Hitlery or by failing to meet the impossibly high hopes of his emotionally intoxicated enthusiasts, we will still be here to clean up the mess.

2. I will vote for Trump IF and only IF he is the nominee of the GOP. Unless the GOP manipulates the nomination into the hands of the unknown corporatist scum, I will not vote for Trump as a third party candidate because he would then be clearly a spoiler and nothing more. I still prefer Scott Walker if the nomination becomes his.

3. All that having been said, and with a background as one of the most persistent Trump critics here, I wil concede to him that I do trust him on certain issues enough to vote for him as the nominee:

a. He will stop the shameful neglect of elderly and disabled veterans, an issue where he has apparently put his personal money where his mouth is; b. The Right to Keep and Bear Arms as outlined too strongly on his campaign website EVER to go back; c. He has to be more likely (even if by accident) than Hitlery to appoint acceptable SCOTUS and other fedjudges (my issues here being RTKBA, Right to Life and Social Conservatism generally), understands that pro-life is a third rail for any Republican who deviates. I don't think he is actually a pro-lifer but, as Calvinist Henry of Navarre said: Paris is worth a Mass;

d. He will certainly beef up the military BIG TIME after its neglect in recent years although he might be reluctant to deploy the military when necessary or desirable;

e. He is quite likely to put the military back in the hands of social normalist military men and to purge the Obozo menagerie;

f. Some hope that he will make competent executive department appointments dedicated to a more beneficial and constitutional path for our country;

g. He will not be perfect even if elected but he would be a LOT more perfect than Hitlery and, in this sad year, that will have to suffice.

Whatever you and your beloved decide, may God bless you and yours!

57 posted on 04/27/2016 6:00:51 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society: Rack 'em Danno!)
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To: cuban leaf

Sorry for all the paragraph failures in #57. Old fumblefingers strikes again and is too old and lazy to re-format. The substance is there nonetheless.


58 posted on 04/27/2016 6:04:35 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society: Rack 'em Danno!)
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To: BlackElk

Thanks for that well documented response. I will tell you the thing that concerns me most about trump. Actually a main thing and a secondary thing.

Main thing. The world is at a precipice as it stands. The situation is very similar to the late 1930’s. There are a lot of desperate nations out there. Meanwhile, Trump is a bull in a china closet when it comes to Geopolitics. My concern is he could be the catalyst that results in a major attack from another country ON the US.

Secondary. He is no conservative and I’m concerned that if he gets the nomination he will intentionally make himself unelectable OR he will actually get the white house and expose that he is, relative to his rhetoric, even more of an empty suit than Obama. It took two terms of Obama to give someone like Trump even a chance at this. It is beyond risky. And as I point out in my primary concern, this is not a “we’ve got nothing to lose” proposition. We actually have quite a bit to lose.


59 posted on 04/27/2016 6:10:22 PM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: cuban leaf
Also in addition to #57:

h. He will build the Wall but we will pay for it;

i. He will slam the door shut on Islamic immigration from the Middle East, saving untold numbers of American lives from the lunatics who would have come in with them;

j. I suspect he will be a tough practitioner of a largely (at the moment) undefined foreign policy, that he will expect other nations to defend themselves for a change, eschew "nation building," drive fuel prices downward by not propping them up, tell the UN to fry ice, junk at least some trade deals, put a stop to Iran's nuclear weapon ambitions or to Iran as is Iran's choice, etc.

60 posted on 04/27/2016 6:16:35 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society: Rack 'em Danno!)
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