Posted on 04/25/2016 5:34:36 AM PDT by xzins
Poll, Date, Sample, MoE, Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Spread
RCP Average 4/18 - 4/22 -- -- 39.3 33.0 19.3 Trump +6.3
CBS News/YouGov 4/20 - 4/22 548 LV 6.6 40 35 20 Trump +5
FOX News 4/18 - 4/21 602 LV 4.0 41 33 16 Trump +8
WTHR/Howey Politics 4/18 - 4/21 507 LV 4.3 37 31 22 Trump +6
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
1. The MOE isn't great in any of them.
2. LV isn't that helpful in Indiana which is an OPEN primary, so Trump's crossover democrats and independents are not captured.
3. Indiana is 'winner-take-all' -- and it appears that it is 'plurality' takes all.
4. The 'winner take all' is divided between state delegates and congressional district delegates. There are 27 state delegates taken by the plurality winner. There are 3 for each of the 9 congressional districts to the plurality winner.
Indiana is an open primary and these polls focus on likely voters....I am mistaken above because this doesn’t say likely republican voters. My mistake. Sorry.
Don’t worry. The numbers will shift further in Trump’s favor after tomorrow. Also the poll doesn’t take into account the below:
A Tsunami Sensor off the coast of New Jersey detected a possible Event. NASA says the Event was the result of an object striking the water at roughly 14,000 mph. There is speculation that the object was the Ted Cruz Campaign.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3424308/posts
It’s the only one coming up where Cruz has a snowball’s chance - he and the other loser are teaming up to save the GOPe...
If Trump wins Indiana. It is over. He will win the nomination.
Since Cruz traded Oregon Washington and New Mexico to Governor Kaysuck for one last stand in Indiana, may the best man win
Decisively
Kasich will essentially shift his focus from Indiana to Washington and Oregon, in the hopes that Cruz can get enough of his support to beat Trump. Consequently, Cruz has apparently agreed to back off Washington and Oregon so that Kasich can beat Trump in those states.
This is utterly deplorable and I hope the voters of Indiana see through this parlor trick and vote for Trump instead. If Trump gets the 57 delegates in Indiana (on top of the 100+ he'll get for sure tomorrow night), he will be on glide path for getting the needed 1237.
If the voters want this garbage over, then they’ll vote for Trump. If they want it to continue with a war at the convention, then they’ll vote for Cruz.
Cruz and Kasich are too late to take Kasich’s name off the ballot.
Also, these polls do not account for how they look at Trump crossover voters. They look simply at likely voters. I assume they ask if they are likely voters in the republican primary. Depending on how they ask the question, they likely are not getting a measure of Trump’s crossover support.
And the MOE is pretty high. 4 to 6 points is huge and unnecessary.
Since Cruz traded Oregon Washington and New Mexico to Governor Kaysuck for one last stand in Indiana, may the best man win
*************
Even as seriously dumbded down as we’ve become I find it hard to believe that the voters of the above states will willingly play along with this farce. I’ve been around a long time and nothing comes close to this absurdity.
That's not for another week. He's having a lot of rallies in states that are coming up tomorrow, some of which show promise for overwhelming victories. Best way to make Kasick and Cruz look like losers.
Just a guess.
Cruz already tried this “strategic” voting with Rubio in FL. Didn’t work. Trump won every county but one.
With the Northeast primary tomorrow, he’s concentrating there. He’ll be in Indiana probably first thing Wednesday would be my bet.
But, if he buries Cruz in the Northeast primary like he did in the NY primary, then that is probably the most important campaigning that could be done regarding Indiana.
If you dishearten your opposition and get them to stay home because their cause is hopeless, then that’s a very significant bit of campaigning.
I agree absolutely.
Trump can win without Indiana, but if he does win Indiana, then he is unstoppable getting to 1237.
Plus, 3 weeks of momentum on his side will swamp the field out west. I would no longer count on even Nebraska if I were Cruz. Why would a Nebraska voter go out to vote for a guy who didn’t even have a chance?
Trump is primed to win all 5 primaries tomorrow, some, or maybe all of them with over 50 percent of the vote. That, along with his big win in NY, will have a major impact on all the remaining primaries.
The Cruz-Kasich announcement that they are losers who are now teaming up just to stop Trump, will also have an impact, positive for Trump, negative for Cruz-Kasich. Few want to vote for a pair of sour grape losers.
That is the GOPe at work. All voters are pawns in their game. It is not that a voter supports Cruz or Kasich it is who the GOPe supports that matters. If one as a voter in Indiana supported Kasich you are now to support Cruz. If one is a Cruz supporter on social issues in .washington, Oregon and New Mexico, those issues no longer matter and the vote should now go to Kasich.
The only person not treating the people as pawns is Trump.
Kasich dropping out should have some effect on this.
What pisses me off to no end is them pulling this crap now, while so many people like me have already gone in and voted.
If they can pull this s$%^ last second, how about letting us have a redo as well who voted in good faith.
If I had voted for Cruz and found out later that he was in the tank with Kasich, it would really make me question who he really had been all along.
Anybody who believes it will stay this way after Affirmative Action Teddie’s 3 or 4 third place finishes tomorrow please raise your hand....... I’m waiting....... Okay never mind.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.