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Why Trump is still likely to fall 52 delegates short of nomination.
NYPost ^ | 4-20 | Liam Donovan

Posted on 04/21/2016 5:33:24 AM PDT by dennisw

But it’s probably not enough as he tries to secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before reaching the GOP convention in Cleveland. The most likely scenario will have Trump getting about 1,185 delegates. Here’s why.

New York marks a crucial geographic segue in the race, as the calendar turns away from the Ted Cruz-friendly interior and into Trump’s mid-Atlantic wheelhouse. With 156 bound delegates at stake next Tuesday, the test for Cruz and John Kasich will be how many they can pick off.

You can start by penciling in 39 delegates for Trump as the likely statewide winner in Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland. Exceeding the 50 percent mark in Connecticut would mean another 13 delegates that would otherwise be split among the field.

And Trump can expect to win about half of Rhode Island’s 19 proportionally allotted delegates. The rest will be awarded to the respective winners of each congressional district.

The best delegate-poaching opportunity for Kasich comes in the affluent Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC, where polls show Trump dead last behind Cruz. Winning three or four districts between the Beltway and the Connecticut Gold Coast would be a big success. The best news for Trump opponents is that the single biggest trove of delegates will be the 54 unbound Pennsylvanians elected independently of candidate affiliation or obligation. While many have pledged to support the winner of the state or their district, all would be in play in Cleveland, a wrinkle that complicates Trump’s path.

The Mountain West has been inhospitable terrain. The Pacific Northwest states split their delegates proportionally. And even West Virginia, in the heart of Trump’s Appalachian sweet spot, has a delegate system so complicated that he may come away shortchanged.

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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To: bray

No, I don’t like Trump or Cruz. They are both dishonest and creepy. The only reasons I’m voting for Cruz over Trump in the primary is his high conservative scorecards and his support for Israel.


21 posted on 04/21/2016 6:06:20 AM PDT by llmc1
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To: Kozak


No they aren't. Haven't you been reading Jim R's posts?

[/s]
22 posted on 04/21/2016 6:08:51 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: TomGuy
It's Trump after next Tuesday

He dominates the popular Vote and delegates and people will watch Cruz into Third place for a month won't accept Cruz as the nominee.

#Never Trump has now become # Never GOP.

23 posted on 04/21/2016 6:14:11 AM PDT by scooby321
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To: dennisw

I got 5 out of 6 numbers in the lottery. Surely, they should just give me the money because I was really close to getting all 6 numbers!


24 posted on 04/21/2016 6:19:22 AM PDT by Hatteras
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To: llmc1
To me, it looked like he has no intention of deporting

At least he isn't changing that policy. He's already said:

"The fence will have a beautiful, wide gate".

"I'll expedite the return of the 'good' ones".

25 posted on 04/21/2016 6:19:56 AM PDT by norwaypinesavage (The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones)
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To: dennisw
NY state has a population of 20 million and gets 95 delegates
Rhode Island has a population of 1 million and gets 19 delegates?
Something is not right here.
26 posted on 04/21/2016 6:21:03 AM PDT by jpsb (Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied. Otto von Bismark)
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To: petercooper
"Enough of these sates with complicated delegate nonsense."

Good managers can deal with reality rather than whine about changing it.

27 posted on 04/21/2016 6:22:26 AM PDT by norwaypinesavage (The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones)
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To: dennisw
The most likely scenario will have Trump getting about 1,185 delegates.

If that's the case, then he's the nominee and Ted and Kasich should stop their negativity and start the healing process so we can focus on Hillary. No way Trump does not become the nominee if he gets 1185.

28 posted on 04/21/2016 6:24:11 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: llmc1
I didn’t see the whole thing, but I saw him support pervs (Jenner) using bathrooms of the opposite sex

It's like he wants to lose. What could be conservative about this? I'm eager to hear the Trump supporters take on this.
During an NBC Today town hall Thursday, Donald Trump said he had no problem with transgender people using whatever bathroom they chose and that a controversial North Carolina bathroom law has caused “a lot of problems” unnecessarily.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/donald-trump-transgender-people-should-be-allowed-to-use-bathroom-of-their-choice/
29 posted on 04/21/2016 6:25:55 AM PDT by mlizzy (America needs no words from me to see how your decision in Roe/Wade has deformed a great nation. -MT)
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To: dennisw

Well ... it’ll be something interesting to watch regardless of who you support, that’s for sure.


30 posted on 04/21/2016 6:34:32 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: norwaypinesavage

The system is rigged against Trump and Cruz. The thing is Cruz figured out how to beat them at their own game and Trump didn’t. Cruz played within the rules and Trump just whined about them and enough people fell for the sob story that he just may get his way by pouting rather than fighting and working smarter.


31 posted on 04/21/2016 6:36:21 AM PDT by buckeye49
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To: Hatteras

I agree that you should get the money. But, if you don’t get it, it’s rigged!

There will be blood in the streets if you aren’t awarded. No one else got 5 correct.

It’s mathematically impossible for anyone else to win - so 5 out of 6 should be sufficient.

Oh, wait a minute, this isn’t politics, it’s about money. So I guess the rules will have to prevail, unless they are changed to allow your victory.

Hatteras: please pardon my sarcasm upon your sarcasm. I wish you well, my FRiend.

Gwjack


32 posted on 04/21/2016 6:43:02 AM PDT by gwjack (May God give America His richest blessings.)
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To: dennisw

Looking at Cruz’s action I believe he is now going to go scorch earth on Trump to destroy him in the general to assure a Hillary win in November. Maybe he is thinking 2020 is his year. He’s a young guy. Trump’s not.


33 posted on 04/21/2016 6:45:08 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Ted Cruz's antics show he is playing for 2020 against Hillary)
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To: jpsb
Furthermore, from my reading of the Rhode Island delegate allocation scheme, it's almost pointless to even have an election there.

The delegates will be split three ways without much of a difference between them.

34 posted on 04/21/2016 6:52:24 AM PDT by TontoKowalski (You can call me "Dick.")
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To: mlizzy

“It’s like he wants to lose.”

I honestly think he’s torn. Sometimes he has the attitude of “I don’t need this, I’d rather just run my business.”


35 posted on 04/21/2016 6:58:44 AM PDT by llmc1
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To: mlizzy

Nitpicking over social issues is what dooms all Republicans in the national election. People don’t want to obsess over these things when the country is going to hell. While I don’t agree with him, it’s a minor issue that can debated after we stop illegal immigration and bring back jobs.


36 posted on 04/21/2016 7:00:37 AM PDT by baxtelf
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To: petercooper

“Enough of these sates with complicated delegate nonsense.”

Me, I am a states-rights guy, especially for a private organization.

You and I may disagree with their methods, but it’s their business.

In particular, a later primary in a small state is expensive and usually irrelevant. If they chose a cheaper method that generally works, that’s their call.


37 posted on 04/21/2016 7:02:07 AM PDT by TheThirdRuffian (RINOS like Romney, McCain, Trump, and Kasich are sure losers. No more!)
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To: dennisw

It’s going to be very difficult to stop him if he’s only 52 short of a majority.


38 posted on 04/21/2016 7:12:39 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: dennisw

If he continues to support men using girls bathrooms, locker rooms etc he will fail by one hell of lot more than 52.

Better another illegal alien than a faggot lover!


39 posted on 04/21/2016 7:17:25 AM PDT by The_Republic_Of_Maine (politicians beware)
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To: llmc1
I didn’t see the whole thing, but I saw him support pervs (Jenner) using bathrooms of the opposite sex and wants to change RNC platform on abortion to include rape and incest.

Why do you think Donald Trump is motivated to change the pro-life RNC platform?

Because his pal Roger Stone was the co-founder of Republicans for Choice dedicated to the destruction of the pro-life plank. Roger hated the fact that Eagle Forum had successfully protected the plank and even made it stronger. This is one of the reasons Stone was working with Ed Martin, the new president of Eagle Forum, precisely to get rid of the pro-life plank.

According to Roger's interview in the March 2016 GQ magazine, Roger is still having regular conversations with Trump even though Stone is running a SuperPac that benefits Trump, which is against Federal campaign laws.

Trump is doing Roger's bidding and if Trump has his way our pro-life plank is at stake.

40 posted on 04/21/2016 7:38:28 AM PDT by Slyfox (When someone tells it like it is, is it the truth?)
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