Posted on 04/18/2016 2:48:49 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
If there’s one thing Trump knows better than just about anybody, it’s how to make a deal. It’s a skill that’ll come in handy in Cleveland.
As pundits and political prophets focus on deciphering the vagaries of “delegate math” leading into July’s Republican convention in Cleveland—how many delegates do you need, how do you secure them, how do you keep them—stories abound about how the party establishment is plotting to deny Donald Trump the nomination.
The prevailing theory is that the grand poobahs of party discipline will pursue a three-step strategy. First, they’ll use Ted Cruz as their Trojan horse to ensure Trump falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed on the first ballot. Then they’ll pivot to stop Cruz from emerging on the second and third ballots. And finally, they’ll implant their own choice as the consensus unifier—John Kasich or Marco Rubio or Scott Walker, now that Paul Ryan has demurred.
There’s just one little problem with this scenario: Donald Trump gets it. He knows the cabal is laying in wait to use the soon-to-be-infamous rule 40(b)—a nominee must have the majority of voting delegates in at least eight states—to validate the coup despite 16 million voters who by then would have pulled the Trump lever over the others.
(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...
The GOPe doesn't want Cruz. When they turn on him Trump will make him an offer he can't refuse.
How confident are you in Cruz's ability to win? What states will Ted win that Romney lost?
I keep asking this, and Cruz supporters have all refused to give a specific answer. It's as if they know that Cruz doesn't stand a chance.
>> The GOPe doesn’t want Cruz. When they turn on him Trump will make him an offer he can’t refuse.
That doesn’t make sense. Assuming for the sake of argument that the GOPe is merely using Cruz... they won’t have any reason to turn on him until after he has defeated Trump, and at that point it’s too late for Trump to make him an offer.
>> How confident are you in Cruz’s ability to win?
I am as confident in Ted’s ability to win as I am in Hildebeast’s ability to lose. Which is to say, VERY confident.
>> What states will Ted win that Romney lost?
That is a fair question.
Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, maybe Virginia, Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa, likely Ohio.
Plenty of EV. Even if I’m wrong about a state or two.
Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, maybe Virginia, Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa, likely Ohio.
Of the states you list that have voted Trump won Nevada, Michigan, Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire. Kasich won Ohio, Cruz came in third. The last time Maine voted Republican was 1988. Your prediction is wildly optimistic.
>> Your prediction is wildly optimistic.
And yours is, of course, pessimistic because you’re on the other side.
Nevertheless, those are our opinions and we’re each entitled to his own.
In less than seven months we shall know, if GOD lets us live that long.
Hey, at least you were at long last able to wring an answer out of a Cruz supporter. :-)
Cruz blocks Trump from locking up the nomination with 1237 before the convention. At some point Cruz realizes that the GOPe isn't going to give him the nomination. That's when Trump gives him a call offering the VP slot if Cruz unites with Trump to stop the GOPe.
To prevent this the GOPe will string Cruz along as long as possible. Trump will have to act fast, and Cruz will have to be ready to make a deal or they both lose everything.
>> Cruz blocks Trump from locking up the nomination with 1237 before the convention.
Check.
>> At some point Cruz realizes that the GOPe isn’t going to give him the nomination.
There is no shadowy GOP-E involved; there are delegates voting.
Trump has no motivation to offer anything to Cruz on the first ballot; he may win all the marbles on ballot #1. Game over.
If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot (note that Cruz can’t because of bound delegates), then the shoe is on the other foot. Cruz has no motivation to negotiate with Trump because he has everything to gain on ballot #2 (and nothing, really, to lose).
HOWEVER...
I’ll grant that depending on what the 2nd ballot looks like, at that point they may have reason to negotiate. The nature of that negotiation is anyone’s guess. When you think about it, this is WHY they have a convention, with multiple ballots and progressively unbound delegates.
>> That’s when Trump gives him a call offering the VP slot if Cruz unites with Trump to stop the GOPe.
... or even the other way around, depending on how ballot #2 goes.
~~~~~
Putting aside the friendly rivalry for a moment — this is going to be a darned interesting convention no matter how it turns out! One like I haven’t seen my whole life, and I’ll bet you haven’t either.
Unless Trump gets to 1237 before it starts, that is. Then it’ll be dull. :-)
FRegards
I'm assuming the GOPe has no intention of giving the nomination to Cruz, and that their campaign to line up loyal GOPe delegates has been more effective than Cruz's effort to do the same for himself. Based on the relative size of their respective power bases that's the safe bet.
... or even the other way around, depending on how ballot #2 goes.
Most of what you say is reasonable. But Trump will never accept second place to Cruz or anyone else.
That’s your opinion and you’re stickin’ to it!
It’s certainly a reasonable one with plenty of evidence to support it.
Mine differs though. We shall see...
Yup.
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