I'm assuming the GOPe has no intention of giving the nomination to Cruz, and that their campaign to line up loyal GOPe delegates has been more effective than Cruz's effort to do the same for himself. Based on the relative size of their respective power bases that's the safe bet.
... or even the other way around, depending on how ballot #2 goes.
Most of what you say is reasonable. But Trump will never accept second place to Cruz or anyone else.
That’s your opinion and you’re stickin’ to it!
It’s certainly a reasonable one with plenty of evidence to support it.
Mine differs though. We shall see...