Trump Soars in Latest CA, NY, CT, MD, PA Polls [California: Trump 49% Cruz 31% Kasich 16%]

24hgold.com ^ | April 18th, 2016 | Mish

[GonzoII]

	Trump Soars in Latest CA, NY, CT, MD, PA Polls
	Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of recent polls in five states. Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries did Trump lose ground. State by state, lets take a look. California In  the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 28 percentage points over Cruz, up from 9-10 percentage point in the two preceding polls. This was barely enough to tip the state to Trump’s category from Cruz in Silver’s Secret Sauce methodology, but in Polls only things are looking might good for Trump. Nate Silver’s Polls Only California Forecast....

[matt04]

I live in ct. I get the feeling that many people who claim to be un decided are leaning towards trump because the get quiet when he comes up. They know if they say they support trump the open minded libs will call them bigots, racists etc so just stay quiet.

[Frederick303]

Here in eastern PA

Contacts with folks in NJ and NY seem to indicate Trump is very popular a the moment.

I notice he has tailed off his more over the top statements and is not responding that much to personnel attacks. Makes Trump seem better to a lot of folks that had problems with his style.

Most folks I know that are pro trump seem to be primarily motivated by three stances, in the following order:

1) US economic nationalism.
2) Get rid of the illegals.
3) Take care of vets and keep US out of middle east wars.

Here on the east coast it seems to sell to both whites and blacks, I would not be surprised if Trump was able to get 20~25 percent of the working black vote come November.

The worst thing against Cruz I note, at least that I have heard, is his suggestion that the retirement age should be raised to 70. Maybe 1 out of 10 folks not sitting at a desk can keep working to that age. It effectively means a reduction is benefits to those in the manual labor trades.

Does not go over well at all with working blue collar folks. Especially when it comes from a lawyer who worked his entire career in government, doing quite well off of the government teat.

[SandRat]

CA, NY, CT, MD, PA, all LibTurd Butt Hole States

[Monitor]

California, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

The cradles of conservatism, home to Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Chucky Schumer (D-NY), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Christopher Murphy (D-CT), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), Robert Casey (D-PA), and Pat Toomey (R-PA).

[SamAdams76]

I agree. California primary is still about 7 weeks away. A lot depends on how the upcoming races go. If Trump is blowing it out and piling up delegates in the meantime, then the "go with the winner" effect is in full play.

If Cruz manages to keep things close, then we have a different ballgame.

Interestingly, this will be the first time in decades that a California primary will have an impact on the nomination. Usually the nomination is decided well before California. This year, California will very likely have the ability to put Trump over the 1237 he needs. If Trump comes into California after a string of strong performances, I think California will come through for him and put him over the top.

[DoughtyOne]

Nooooooooooooooooooo! Cruz is going to win California! Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

the huge manatees

[SamAdams76]

You are right about PA having most of their delegates unbound but I think a strong Trump victory there next week will help make up some minds at convention time. So I think it’s important for Trump to have a decisive victory in PA.

[GonzoII]

"California, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

The cradles of conservatism... "

"CA, NY, CT, MD, PA, all LibTurd Butt Hole States"

It begs the question: Why did Ted lose the South and Trump win it?

[DoughtyOne]

Oh, so Ted doesn’t want to win them. Good to know.

Could you shout that a little louder.

The good citizens of those states need to know.

Maybe you could coin a phrase like, “New York Values” and shot it out real loud.

Thanks in advance.

[DoughtyOne]

Oh, so Ted doesn’t want to win them. Good to know.

Could you shout that a little louder.

The good citizens of those states need to know.

Maybe you could coin a phrase like, “New York Values” and shot it out real loud.

Thanks in advance.

[HamiltonJay]

Exactly, its no coincidence at all that Trump’s numbers went up and Cruz’s went down nationally after WI.

The GOPe there gave him a win, a strong win, but it also removed anyone from the Cruz camp that was supporting him because he claimed he was an outsider who would stand up to the establishment.

It is insane that anyone, including Cruz himself, believes that he can walk out of the convention as the nominee. If the GOP think they have a coup on their hands now, try and use parliamentary procedures to deny Trump the nomination should he come up a handful of votes shy, and you will see the GOP literally end as a party in any meaningful way for at least a generation.

If you had another candidate close, you might get away with it, but the reality is, Trump will have between 1/3 and 1/4 more delegates than Cruz, and probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 to 5 million more actual votes... any attempt to deny the nomination, no matter how technically allowed, will wind up destroying the party.

Watching the GOPe dealing with what is going on is literally watching systemic insanity. Every argument made that they are only out to protect their power, and not interested one iota in the fate of this nation or her people is being borne out with ever move they make wit this anyone but Trump nonsense.

No wonder they haven’t been able to win the popular vote, with the sole exception of a sitting wartime president, and even then only by less than 2.5% of the vote, in nearly 3 decades. They truly are insane and self absorbed.

[CapitalistCrusader]

Our neighbors and good friends are a police officer and his wife. Both died-in-the-wool NE democrats. The wife in particular. She actually wrote in Nader in 2000. Anyway, they both hate Hitlery and think Sanders is off his rocker. Both will vote for Trump if he's the R nominee. Both have said that there is no way they could vote for Cruz and would not vote if Cruz is the nominee.

That is very telling to me.

[Zathras]

I am seeing the same thing in MN
People go quiet when Trump is mentioned.
No chance Trump will take MN but supporters don’t want their cars keyed or homes burned.

[GizzyGirl]

Anyone else out there seeing the same?

You bet! Everywhere I go in Fairfield County, CT I find the working class all set to vote Trump! I just hope they are registered for participation in the primary, not just the general! I plan to be first in line when the doors open!

[freddy005]

“Our neighbors and good friends are a police officer and his wife. Both died-in-the-wool NE democrats. The wife in particular. She actually wrote in Nader in 2000. Anyway, they both hate Hitlery and think Sanders is off his rocker. Both will vote for Trump if he’s the R nominee. Both have said that there is no way they could vote for Cruz and would not vote if Cruz is the nominee.
That is very telling to me.”
_______________________________________________________________________________________

I’m getting the same thing up here.....Several people that have voted Dems in the past three or four elections that can’t bring themselves to vote for Hillary (and know that Bernie WON’T be the Dem nominee) have said that they will either NOT vote in November or “might” vote for Trump (”if he tones it down”) but have ALL said unequivocally that they would NEVER vote for Cruz. Make of it what you will....

[HamiltonJay]

“CA, NY, CT, MD, PA, all LibTurd Butt Hole States”

So, if that’s the excuse Trump is leading among REPUBLICAN voters in these states... what’s your excuse for Trump sweeping the entire south? Are you going to argue that AL, AK, LA, NC, SC, MO, GA, TN, KY, FL, VA, MS, OK, AZ etc are all LibTurd butt hole states???

This the kind of idiotic nonsense that shows exactly why Cruz is where he is. CA, NY, CT, MD and PA have a combined population of nearly 83 MILLION PEOPLE! So for you to broad brush them all as just a bunch of libturd states is beyond moronic. 83 MILLION PEOPLE are not all liberals, neither are the states they live in.. just because the GOP hasn’t put up a candidate that can connect with the majority of folks that live there in nearly 3 decades or more doesn’t mean that the states are progressive liberal.

Have you learned NOTHING from Cruz’s “New York Values” comment? Just because a state may not majority vote your way does not mean the state is nothing but folks on the other side... a lot of money, brain power and other things support the conservative cause in all those states you just paint brushed like a moron.

Cruz couldn’t even win the south! And no republican can win without the south... yet you want to bash Trump? Idiotic.

[HamiltonJay]

In PA alone more than 100,000 people have changed parties just to be able to vote for Trump in the primary. Cruz and the GOPe are morons....Trump is the first person in 3 decades that has shown he has the potential to grow the base... but they’d rather hold onto their power than recognize what they have been doing for decades isn’t working.. because for them it has, they’ve padded their pockets, and that’s all that matters.

Seriously people wake up.... The GOP has not won a popular election with the sole exception of the re=election of a wartime president, and even then couldn’t even win by 2.5% of the vote, in 28 years!!!! 28 YEARS!!! What the GOP has been doing isn’t working if they desire to ever wish to actually win again. Now they have a person that is clearly growing the base, and they are more interested in protecting their golden goose than recognizing the reality.

[wardaddy]

YouGuv has an error history in the 3s

About average reliability

Per 538

[thoughtomator]

The primary drivers of Trump’s appeal are the trio of policy areas - foreign policy, trade policy, and immigration policy - that no amount of voting, petitioning, or other within-the-system actions by the citizenry has been able to affect.

On these issues (and many others) nobody consulted us, and if asked we’d have wanted exactly the opposite of what political leaders are trying to accomplish. As the crises caused by the mishandling of these policy areas come to a head, it is becoming clear to more and more regular Joes that we don’t have a representative system of government at all.

[SaxxonWoods]

Each successive media-imagined Trump collapse ends sooner than the last.