Posted on 04/15/2016 2:18:24 PM PDT by No Dems 2016
Donald Trump is poised to run away with next week’s Republican primary in New York, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist poll shows.
The New York businessman leads his closest rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, by 29 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters, 54% to 25%, the poll finds. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is a distant third, as the top choice of 16% of likely Republican voters.
The results for Mr. Trump mirror a survey released earlier this week by the Journal, NBC News and Marist that also showed the Republican front-runner with 54% support. The biggest potential development to come from the latest batch of data is the emergence of Mr. Kasich as the clear second-place alternative to Mr. Trump.
“If there’s someone to watch in the closing hours, closing days, it’s Kasich,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. He said the Ohio governor seems to owe his rise to Cruz voters, because support for the Texas senator recently has trailed off while support for Mr. Trump has not diminished.
With the front-runner holding such a big lead, suspense in the contest focuses more on the size of Mr. Trump’s expected winning margin than on whether he will claim victory. He needs to eclipse the 50% threshold in as many of New York’s 27 congressional districts as possible to collect the lion’s share of the state’s 95 delegates.
-----
Among Republican primary voters, Mr. Trump performs slightly better in and around New York City than he does upstate, but he exceeds the 50% mark in both regions.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Cruz can help make that happen by announcing May 1st that he is throwing in with Trump.
He won’t drop out before Indiana which is May 3. After Cruz loses Indiana he will withdraw, IMO. This is about winning and at some point Cruz has to win stuff. Right now he is only winning small states with a handful of votes. That is not a path to winning the general.
The totals after 4/26 will be
20 biggest electoral vote states
13 Trump
2 Cruz
1 Kasich
4 remaining CA, IN, WA, NJ.
There is one national candidate there. It isn’t Ted Cruz.
You want to take a look at CDs 9 and 10 in Brooklyn with large Orthodox Jewish populations. Cruz's best hope. Arguably CD 24 upstate.
Really, if Trump doesn't get 80% he should just drop out and endorse Jeb Bush.
+1
after Tuesday the bandwagon effect will kick in and this race will be over
[...rigged CO outcome.]
Yes indeed, it was rigged by the rino liberal GOP, the cohorts of the dem-rino leftist liberal one party government politicians and their evil minions in the lamestream media. And it is getting worse and worse and real conservatives are being persecuted and disenfranchised in America now. They know most dems and rinos are becoming one party under the obamanation of America’s desolation and love it that way.
The name "Waterloo" comes to mind.
People forget, the race is all about the DELEGATES!
Ted doesn’t need to win elections at this point, he just needs to concentrate on collecting the delegates...
http://www.drbongo.com/play/vbA
Not really. Winning enough delegates gets you to the dance. Alienating too many people on the way to winning enough delegates could only be a productive, smart strategy to the most strange, insular principled conservative.
And Cruz’s excuse in Texas (where more than half the voters voted against him) was?
Ted wins in states where few or no one actually votes. He’s good at that. Same thing in Wyoming:
The Wyoming Republican Party delegate selection plan is more like Colorado’s than anything else. Registered Republicans with lots of time and money to follow each step of the lengthy process are more likely to be activists within the state party than general republicans interested in the presidential race. That has an impact on turnout and eventually the outcome of the delegate selection process. This grants the state party much more control over the process.
But this caucus is less open then Colorado. Wyoming Republican delegates will be bound to the presidential candidate to whom they have pledged heading into the conventions where those delegates are chosen. By having only approved committee vote for the delegates, the party is ensured their choice as opposed to the popular vote.
Note: It’s interesting how some states changed their rules to exclude lots of voters: The last polling (summer) in Wyoming had Jeb Bush in the lead. Bush-Cheney-> Wyoming! ... Realizing they nearly lost 2012 to Rick, they decided to play a much different game for 2016.
2012 Primary Election results
Mitt Romney.........822.......38.99%.... 11
Rick Santorum......679.......31.93%...... 8
Ron Paul...............439.......20.83%...... 6
Newt Gingrich.......165.........7.83%...... 2
Others.....................9..........0.43%...... 0
2016
275,000 Registered republican voters
980 Committeeman choose the delegates.
.03 % of the eligible voters choose the President
34% Cruz, 4% Rubio, 4% Trump
final results yet to come
No Sir!
I wouldn’t go to the dance with a lyin’-cheatin’ kinda guy.
Not to worry about elections; just collecting delegates.
It's a voters vs process argument, and you're going to lose that one every time.
But look at the delegate count in Texas: 104 Cruz, 48 Trump and 3 Rubio. So say again who got trumped?
Sorry, just my sense of humor. It’s the only was I see Cruz getting many more delegates-—poaching unearned ones.
He’s won so many caucuses with little or fractional of percentages that it boggles my mind that that is seen as winning among his supporters.
Got to hand it to TeamCruz they used a lot of target marketing software to pinpoint the narrow groups that he would appeal to and got him in position.
Cruz ‘s wins in relation to registered state republicans: Colorado = .06% , WY = .03%
Forgive me!
However, I do have some basis for believing you were serious. Thursday on Rush, a Colorado caller made the argument that the convention charade was an excellent idea, because voters were too stupid to make the right choice.
It was the most honest rationale for the Colorado GOP tactics that I've heard.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3421451/posts
and post #23
We believe the delegates were already pre-slated for Jeb.
No way were they going to let other voices be heard, the delegates belong to the party.
Santorum won in 2012. They back-stabbed him and gave Romney most the votes.
With Jeb gone, the current Cruz delegates are merely placeholders until the party picks their man in Cleveland.
As a matter of fact, in early March Ted Cruz asserted this was the only way to win. To win with the voters. (Recall he said it in the context of encouraging others to drop out and let him be the only alternative to compete directly with Trump--but he was explicit in saying it was the only way to beat Trump).
Now we have his supporters and him in a very awkward moral dilemma. They can either stand by the almost universally accepted principle that delegates ought be faithful to the voter's choice, just as we expect electors to vote faithfully in the general election, or they can continue to offer rationalizations for why this principle does not apply, and even make out that it a sign of virtue, of competence and a "good ground game" and "taking advantage of the rules" to undermine this principle.
But the moral position they take is one that nobody takes except for the special purposes of supporting a losing candidate. One can talk till they are blue in the face, but they are talking against common sense. To switch out delegate loyalty is to cheat the voters. Period. No refutation can be valid. If one loses touch with a moral principle so obvious as this, one ought not to claim they are a principled conservative. Its embarrassing to see.
That’s an excellent an non argumentative way of explaining what has occurred and how Ted is so duplicitous. The more I learn about him, the less I like. I think that based on all the expensive internal polling that he has hired, that he has always known that he would have a remote chance of winning.
I note that he was not intently campaigning in The South and stayed out of Florida for the most part. His plan has been to target small caucus states and manipulate the vote. The state parties that are corrupted would have been assisting Jeb, then Rubio, now by default Cruz. Actually there is no way they will allow him the nomination. Why risk having an unqualified candidate on the ballot when it is guaranteed your opponent will attack and eliminate him.
He’s not likable and will lose all the battleground states that are essential. Cruz has no path to victory, he’s merely the candidate elect saboteur.
Still, I will support Cruz if he somehow gets the nomination, because these disappointing moral failings are tiny in comparison to the gross un-American flaws of the democrat side.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.