RNC member: Trump can win with 1,100 delegates

Washington Examiner ^ | 4/13/16 9:05 AM | Pete Kasperowicz

[nralife]

Republican National Committee member Randy Evans said Wednesday that Donald Trump would likely be able to secure the Republican nomination if he captures anything more than 1,100 delegates, short of the 1,237 delegates needed for a simple majority.

"If Donald Trump exceeds 1,100 votes, he will become the nominee even though he may not have 1,237," Evans said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

Evans' comment is good news for Trump if it's a sentiment shared by other RNC members, since Trump is at risk of falling short of a majority of delegates by the time of the convention in July. But Evans also warned that if Trump slips much more, the nomination would likely fall to someone else.

[kabar]

950 will probably be closer to the mark by then. 1000 will be real tough.

I was being a little too optimistic. I will say between 930 to 950. I expect Trump to get 75 of NY's 95 delegates. Of the 172 at stake on April 26, I expect Trump to receive 60% of them.

According to various sources, Trump has 742 to 757 delegates now. Add about 180 from NY and April 26th and you get 922 to 937.

Trump will pick up a sure 51 from NJ on June 7 and at least 100 of CA's 172. He will also pick up a significant number of delegates from IN, WV, and OR. Trump will have no problem easily surpassing 1100 delegates and it should be closer to 1200 even assuming Cruz takes MT, SD, and NE.

The dynamics of the May and June primaries could change significantly in favor of Trump if the perception is that Cruz is just trying to be a spoiler and split the party. He will be trailing by a lot in votes, states, and delegates.

[Cboldt]

-- I link to Colorado due to the amount of vitriol from Trump and others toward that particular state party. --

There is a disconnect within the Trump campaign on that point. Trump is peddling a political message of "voter disenfranchisement," which is generally taken as absence of caucus or primary. This message is a simple sound-bite message that easily resonates with the public. It's a political message, and a falsehood! But hey, it works. It probably helps his chances, hurts Cruz's chances, and it also undercuts the RNC/GOP. All of those ultimate goals are ones he holds, so he isn't cutting against his various missions.

Manafort, on the other hand, says there is no problem at all with the Colorado system or the Colorado rules. The issue as Manafort presents it is that the rules were not followed. That is a more complex claim, probably has multiple instances of alleged dirty trickery, not all following the same pattern. The reality doesn't fit into a political sound-bite message, but he (Manafort) or a person working under his direction will make the appropriate challenges, which will be dealt with either according to the rules, or according to the desired outcome - just like every other decision made in politics and in law.

I suspect Trump knows what the real issue is, and is deliberately making life difficult for Priebus and the power-brokers in the Colorado GOP. Put 'em on the defensive. Certain individual people will NEVER work in Trump's favor. He knows that, and he has to smoke them out before he isolates them from power, if he can.

[CSM]

I see 1100 as a bubble number. However, the reality is that anything shy of 1237 puts us in an anything can happen situation.

[euram]

That tells me that Trump will have to have at least 1300 delegates to win.

[kabar]

Cruz will win on the second ballot and the GOP will be pulled further to the right than most of you will have dreamed possible a year ago.

Pulled to the right? Not on trade and immigration. Cruz will show his true colors if he gets the nomination. He will tow the GOPe line, otherwise he would never get the nomination. He is a pawn of the GOPe.

[WENDLE]

Bound delegates can’t vote unless their man is nominated . No nomination without 8 state majority-— EVER. Rules are rules. Explain this “plucking” again. You actually only count those qualified ( having a nominated candidate) to vote in calculating the “majority”. With 400 bound and unable to vote, only 1037 need to push Trump over the Top! Rules are Rules.

[CSM]

“This is just a bad precedent.”

Well, this precedent was set over 150 years ago.

[only1percent]

If Trump gets his polling with Clinton to even, sure. If the polls look like they do now? 1,100’s not the number, 1,237’s not number ... it’s more like 1,450, to allow for 200+ Cruz loyalists who will be pledged to Trump but will vote to unbind the first ballot.

[CSM]

“Trump has said that there are a number of GOP players who can’t publicly support him, but will”

I guess that makes him a trojan horse establishment shill....

[kabar]

This is what the guy running the convention said:

"So let me speak directly to the delegates on this: If no candidate has a majority on the first ballot, I believe you should only choose a person who actually participated in the primary. Count me out," Ryan said. "I simply believe that if you want to be the nominee — to be the president — you should actually run for it. I chose not to. Therefore, I should not be considered. Period.

Ryan is saying that all 17 candidates who entered the race have a shot. The Hell with Rule 40B, which could be changed at the whim of the delegates. Based on my long experience with GOP politics, I posit that most of the delegates are not Trump or Cruz supporters. They are GOPe types. That is how most of the delegates are selected. They are long time party apparatchiks who are rewarded by being delegates to the national convention. Usually, it is a time to party and have fun.

[Marcella]

“Just like Trumps kids are too lazy to register to vote, Whining Donald it too lazy to read & learn the different state primary rules.”

Rules mean things. Here is another example of rules:
Did you see the news report/film of the Colorado man who burned his Republican registration due to supposed “rigged” treatment of his being a state delegate when he couldn’t get into the state convention as a delegate? He said he would never be a Republican again. This film was shown on major TV stations. Here is what actually happened:

The Republican rules in Colorado are a voter can go to the precinct convention and perhaps get chosen as a delegate to the county convention. At the county convention, one may be chosen to be a delegate to the state convention.

This man went to the precinct convention and was elected to be a delegate to the county convention. HE DID NOT GO TO THE COUNTY CONVENTION. So, he shows up at the state convention claiming to be a delegate. That is what actually happened in this case.

Those rules are the same as Texas except Texas has a primary election and Colorado doesn’t. In Texas, vote on primary day and attend the precinct meeting at the end of voting day and perhaps get selected to attend the county convention. I ran county conventions for years. Delegates are selected there as delegates to the state convention. At the state convention, delegates are selected for the national convention.

Rules mean things.

[StAnDeliver]

"Robot, oh Robot, where for art thou?"

Exclusive: Marco Rubio rejected 'unity ticket' with Ted Cruz

“Among the Cruz supporters who have been vocal about forging an alliance has been Doug Deason, son of billionaire megadonor Darwin Deason, who has deep connections in the Charles and David Koch fundraising network.

On March 2, the day after Super Tuesday, the younger Deason reached out to Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe. By that time, Deason had been talking to a number of major Rubio donors, but now wanted to go to the official campaign to pitch the unity-ticket idea.

In an interview, Deason recalled telling Roe he wanted to call Marc Short, a senior Rubio adviser and former operative for the Koch-founded Freedom Partners political operation. After Roe didn’t object, Deason connected with Short and gave him his pitch.

Rubio wasn’t interested.

'Rubio was too pompous to act on it. He believed his own internal polls and there was no swaying him away from staying in the race through the Florida primary,' Deason said."

[StAnDeliver]

"He is NOT saying Trump wins with 1100, he is saying if he comes in with 1100, he will get an additional 137."

A distinction without a difference...

[kabar]

The rules can be changed at any time. That is the rule.

In the beginning was the word, and the word was changed.

[CSM]

“If Trump falls short of a majority of delegates, he will cut a deal with Kasich, Rubio... or Cruz.

One of the three will agree to release their delegates on the first ballot in exchange for the VP spot.”

That is a felony. You aren’t really advocating that are you?

The fact of the matter is that bound delegates can’t “be released” on the first ballot. The scenario you describe may happen in private and lead to a Trump win on subsequent ballots, but it CAN’T happen on the first ballot.

[Cboldt]

-- I guess that makes him a trojan horse establishment shill... --

The "establishment shill" label inevitably attaches. Some existing elected politicians are going to support (or at least put on a good act of support) the presumed and eventual nominee, no matter who it is.

The "trojan horse" aspect attached to Cruz before Jeb, Rubio, etc. came aboard the Cruz-train. I suppose he could still be a trojan horse, just working against the establishment camp instead of against the insurgents's camp.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

‘I wonder how not being able to get 1237 is going to affect Cruz when that reality hits.’

Cruz won’t let us see him ‘bleed’, but like the devil, his time is running short.

[WENDLE]

We just disagree as to delegate numbers loyal to Trump or scruz on the floor . We both agree that rules are rules and there is good old 40b designed to screw millions of Ron Paul votes from even nominating their candidate. Change requires 50%+1 0f the convention delegates. I say that will never happen. You say it will because Trump/Cruz don’t have the votes? Good luck with that. together TODAY!! they have 1300 but what ever.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

I remember when holdout conservatives kept splitting the ‘anti-Romney’ ticket. This is essentially the same as the Santorum phase of the primary. Trump is the last one to defeat the Establishment.

Remember that phase? Other conservatives clinged to their little gains and refused to let Santorum overtake Romney.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Quoting kabar, an experienced DC lobbyist:

‘Based on my long experience with GOP politics, I posit that most of the delegates are not Trump or Cruz supporters. They are GOPe types. That is how most of the delegates are selected. They are long time party apparatchiks who are rewarded by being delegates to the national convention.’

Entire post is worth reading.

FRegards ...