Posted on 04/13/2016 5:09:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz is close to ensuring that Donald Trump cannot win the GOP nomination on a second ballot at the party’s July convention in Cleveland, scooping up scores of delegates who have pledged to vote for him instead of the front-runner if given the chance.
The push by Cruz means that it is more essential than ever for Trump to clinch the nomination by winning a majority of delegates to avoid a contested and drawn-out convention fight, which Trump seems almost certain to lose.
The GOP race now rests on two cliffhangers: Can Trump lock up the nomination before Cleveland? And if not, can Cruz cobble together enough delegates to win a second convention vote if Trump fails in the first?
Trump’s path to amassing the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright has only gotten narrower after losing to Cruz in Wisconsin and other recent contests, and would require him to perform better in the remaining states than he has to this point.
In addition, based on the delegate selections made by states and territories, Cruz is poised to pick up at least 130 more votes on a second ballot, according to a Washington Post analysis. That tally surpasses 170 delegates under less conservative assumptions — a number that could make it impossible for Trump to emerge victorious.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
If my memory is correct, in 2012 Santorum dropped out when he reached the point where he needed 75% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. Cruz needs somewhere in the high 80% range now. The numbers only get worse for Cruz after next Tuesday. Will be interesting to see how Cruz handles that challenge.
Has there been any discussion of a Ballot #1 Trump victory based on:
1. Trump/Kasich Ticket. Kasich withdraws and delivers enough Ohio delegation votes to get to 1237.
2. Trump/Rubio Ticket. Rubio delivers.
Or a
3. Cruz Ballot #1 victory with Cruz/Kasich and SOS Rubio.
While the votes may not be there for #3 they are almost certainly available for #1 an #2.
And, if #1 or #2 is actually available and Trump is ready to push the button could we have:
4. Cruz withdraws and we have Trump/Cruz on the first ballot.
Ted Cruz has 28% of the primary vote right now. The only percentages lower than that by a winner were back before every state even had votes.
Cruz winning would be the ultimate pyrrhic victory. He'd inevitably lose in November, and never be relevant in presidential politics again, be in 2020, 2024, etc. Cruz would forever be that guy that overturned the will of the people and allowed Clinton into the White House.
Not necessarily. Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from a first ballot victory with bound delegates only. A first ballot victory counting unbound delegates who vote Cruz is a possibility too (okay, it's not going to happen, but it's theoretically possible).
A second ballot victory with Rubio delegates (if they are bound on the first round, a still undecided question, but unbound on the second as most will certainly be) and unbound Kasich delegates is completely possible if the delegates Cruz is courting are being honest about their intentions.
I'm not going to comment on how likely delegate honesty is, because I have not been present for those discussions, but I am more than a bit worried that Cruz is being set up. I'm also more than a bit hopeful that Cruz is successfully setting up the establishment and he's going to use his ground game and careful study of the rules to beat the insiders that we all want to see defeated.
The best answer is for Trump to score a first round victory with bound delegates. Failing that, Cruz may have a real chance for either a first or second round victory under the rules that govern the convention. As long as the nominee opposes Amnesty (i.e., Trump or Cruz), and the party unifies (a concern that requires an end to the Trump-Cruz wars), the outcome will be far better than a Hillary victory in November.
won’t need to. Trump wins on the first ballot.
So much for Cruz wanting to unify the party.
And the globalist oligarchy whores in media continue to do their masters’ bidding in whipping fools into frenzies, so the divisive agenda stomps onward ...
Since when is second place winning?
when you adhere to 184 year old rules when selecting a candidate for the highest office in the land...
Stop babbling you old fool.
There won’t be any second ballot. When Slick Teddie is eliminated next Tuesday the mask will be off and there will be no rationale for his candidacy. New York will be the end of him and the clearing of the road for Trump’s first round win.
Mitt Romney in 2012: 52.13% of the primary vote
John McCain in 2008: 47.32% of the primary vote
George W. Bush in 2000: 62.00% of the primary vote
Bob Dole in 1996: 58.82% of the primary vote
Where are trumps numbers
Cruz joins Kasich in mathematically elimination on April 26. From there, he will need to explain to the electorate why he's still running, tell them he's trying to force a contested convention, because that will be the only way he can hope to win at that point.
Nope. Delegates are bound to vote for their candidates on the first ballot.
2. Trump/Rubio Ticket. Rubio delivers.
Same as # 1. Plus Rubio is already formed an alliance with Cruz in some states. Rubio likes Sleazy tRump like he likes plison.
If Trump is within 100 or so delegates then Trump will make a deal with Rubio or Kasich to be the VP and take his 100+ delegates to obtain the nomination.
Kasich isn’t pretty and Rubio is a squirrel but if it gets the nomination it may be necessary
Fantasy/Hope
Then the demodogs will challenge Rubios eligibility and he will be forced to withdraw. Trump replaces Rubio with a better option
IF memory serves, Trump is co-owner in lots of businesses. Co owner. These still need to trun a profit for Trump to continue in co-ownership so there is a limit to what he could do with these businesses regarding ‘courting delegates’.
It's also going to shoot up after New York votes.
Cruz will be mathematically eliminated in 6 days. NY shuts him out from attaining 1237 ... and his support will then tank.
Cruz’s support is already tanking. He’s abandoned the northeast. Hardly campaigned there at all while he trails Kasich in many states. Monday he was in California. Today Indiana. Nothing says winner in Ted Cruz. He’s running scared and all but his deluded Cruzers can see it.
Another inarticulate trump Kool-Aid drinker moron. Well done there little mac.
That's true as long as he is a candidate. If he withdraws his candidacy as Rubio did it may no longer apply. It depends on the Ohio rules and they vary from state to state. Florida delegation voters are pretty much free as I understand it.
Yes, Rubio is with Cruz. Today. If Trump offers him the VP and he can deliver then all bets are off. But, of course, that discussion may well have already happened and the Kasich discussion likewise.
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