Cruz is likely to block Trump on a second ballot at the GOP convention

Washington Post ^ | 04/13/2016 | Ed O' Keefe

[SeekAndFind]

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz is close to ensuring that Donald Trump cannot win the GOP nomination on a second ballot at the party’s July convention in Cleveland, scooping up scores of delegates who have pledged to vote for him instead of the front-runner if given the chance.

The push by Cruz means that it is more essential than ever for Trump to clinch the nomination by winning a majority of delegates to avoid a contested and drawn-out convention fight, which Trump seems almost certain to lose.

The GOP race now rests on two cliffhangers: Can Trump lock up the nomination before Cleveland? And if not, can Cruz cobble together enough delegates to win a second convention vote if Trump fails in the first?

Trump’s path to amassing the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright has only gotten narrower after losing to Cruz in Wisconsin and other recent contests, and would require him to perform better in the remaining states than he has to this point.

In addition, based on the delegate selections made by states and territories, Cruz is poised to pick up at least 130 more votes on a second ballot, according to a Washington Post analysis. That tally surpasses 170 delegates under less conservative assumptions — a number that could make it impossible for Trump to emerge victorious.

[Mechanicos]

yeah saw that, However, he would be in one hell of a good position as Governor of a State that benefited from favors owed by a president who ran on a platform of bringing manufacturing back to America.

All he has to do is drop out, not even endorse...

[Mechanicos]

Again you miss, what happens if Kaish is not running (incapacitated) before the convention. Delegates then become either unbound or are allocated to the remaining.

[mkjessup]

Geez, where is my pic of trump with his tiny hands and pacifier in his mouth? You can ignore the punditry, many whom have said if he does not win 1237 Cruz wins in the second round. We won’t know until June 7th.

Geez, why doesn't FR have a *SPAM* folder for your drivel?

Oh well, ol' Bertha needed cleaning anyway:

[Hawthorn]

>> Cruz and Trump are both imperfect but they agree far more than 80% of the time <<

I don’t see it. Not at all. The two gents agree on securing the border, and they agree that Obamacare needs to be replaced — although they don’t agree on the details of a replacement..

But where else do they agree?

As far as I can tell, they don’t agree on tax policy, not on trade policy, not on eminent domain, not on bankruptcy, not on the role of the free market, not on the importance of the Constitution, obviously not on the rule of law, not on NATO, not on the nuclear triad, not on the rules of civility and “presidential” behavior, and not on the need for a potential POTUS to have a serious and deep understanding of the issues.

So out of 13 issues that I mentioned, the two men would seem to agree on only two. Therefore, in terms of the “raw” percentages, giving equal weight to each issue mentioned, they would seem to agree on 6.5% of the issues.

Or if we take my 13 issues and assign a triple weight to the issues of border security and Obamacare, with a unit weight assigned to each of the other issues, Mr. Trump and Sen. Cruz would seem to have an “agreement index” of only about 35%.

Still, if you can change the model or the issues or the weights — and thereby come up with a radically different score — I’d be most interested to see your calculations.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Trump is clearly ahead and the likely GOP nominee. He just needs to step up his game or it will be a landslide for the Clinton Crime Family.

[Hawthorn]

>> Since when is second place winning? <<

Since when did majority rule become obsolete?

[Religion and Politics]

I'm thinking Cruz's second ballet efforts ultimately will be a good thing. We don't know what is going to happen, and we know Cruz is smart, so he will use his leverage to his advantage. What others want him to do with his leverage is to #NeverTrump, but I have never read Cruz himself as a #NeverTrump person.

If Cruz figures the optics of "stealing" the nomination look too bad and the result also being a fractured party, then he may do the John McCain and make friendly with Trump and actually deliver him the second ballot and semi-unite the GOP. It isn't like Cruz is going to be accepted inside the secret circle anyway, so he would not be fearful of being ostracized or something. Plus, it would be perfectly consistent with what he has said all along.

So I think it is good for Cruz to get as much influence as he can, and for Trump as well. Hopefully Trump can win first ballot, but if a second ballot, I think Cruz is smart enough to figure out that now is not his time. Unless, of course, he pulls off some stunning victories at the voter box in the next few weeks.

[Pollster1]

The real strategy is to get delegates selected that are loyal to you. Courting them afterwards is not very effective.

That is not always possible. The state party chooses the delegates in some states. It would be nice if a few of the chosen delegates actually liked Trump. Jeb/Carson/Rubio chose a few of them who are now unbound. It would be nice if a few of those unbound delegates actually liked Trump now. Choosing your own delegates is better, but it is not always an option.

[aragorn]

Comments like “Sleazy tRump” or “Lyin Ted” are not helpful for electing a pro-gun, anti-AMnesty, anti-Obamacare candidate in November.

Thank you!!!

I agree, and just shake my head at the level of "discussion" that this site has sunken to. How in the world do supporters of one candidate or the other expect the support of "the other side" in the general after having been so hateful to them? Disagreement is one thing, vitriol and disparagement something else.

[Hawthorn]

>> With their total control of the rules committee both Trump and Cruz <<

They may not have that kind of complete control. Each of the 56 delegations will appoint two reps to the Rules Committee. But even where Trump or Cruz received the most votes in a state’s or territory’s primary/caucus, it doesn’t necessarily follow that the delegation itself would be pro-Trump or pro-Cruz.

Also, even if the pro-Trump and pro-Cruz Committee members should have an overwhelming majority of Committee seats, it doesn’t follow that the two factions would work together in lock step. They might hate each other so much that a small minority of non-Trump, non-Cruz members could hold the balance of power on certain critical votes.

Moreover, even if the Rules Committee keeps Rule 40 as currently written, there still may be votes on the floor for candidates who aren’t formally nominated, because the Rule is simply silent on this matter. Then it would be up to the Chair (Paul Ryan) to rule how such “informal” votes should be counted.

Ditto for second and subsequent ballots, where Rule 40 is still silent. So rulings from the Chair and/or rules changes, voted by the Convention sitting as a Committee of the Whole, could go in just about any direction.

Get your popcorn ready!

[Jim Noble]

can Cruz cobble together enough delegates to win a second convention vote if Trump fails in the first?

Don't be ridiculous.

All those "Cruz delegates", once they are unbound on a second ballot, will turn into Romney delegates.

Face it. Nobody - but Nobody - likes the guy.

[Pollster1]

http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Ted_Cruz.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump.htm

Trump opposes late-term abortions and wants to stop funding for Planned Parenthood. Cruz opposes all abortion and wants to stop funding for Planned Parenthood. They are not identical on that issue, but they are close.

Trump wants to reduce spending and use the debt limit for leverage. Cruz agrees. They disagree on some points in the “budget and economy” area, but there is also significant agreement.

Trump strongly supports the death penalty and paid for a full page NYT ad in support of it. Cruz strongly supports the death penalty and won a case he argued in front of the Supreme Court to execute a murderer who was a Mexican citizen.

Trump supports school vouchers and opposes Common Core and the Department of Education. Cruz wants to abolish the Department of Education.

Trump is now strongly pro-gun, and Cruz has always been strongly pro-gun.

There is a lot of overlap between Trump and Cruz, in particular on key issues.

Some of the issues you mention (eminent domain, bankruptcy, and the rules of civility and “presidential” behavior) do not strike me as central for a presidential selection, especially the behavior when at least some of that is a showmanship tactic for the free press attention to his campaign. Others (tax policy, trade policy, NATO, and the nuclear triad) do not strike me as critical issues at this point in our history.

The most important question for the next eight years is how much of Obama’s destructive legacy a real president can actually dismantle. In that area, Trump and Cruz seem pretty close.

[Hawthorn]

>> The most important question for the next eight years is how much of Obama’s destructive legacy a real president can actually dismantle <<

Couldn’t agree more!

>> In that area, Trump and Cruz seem pretty close <<

Mr. Trump gives so few specifics, and he evinces so little understanding of many important issues, that I find it impossible to agree on that point.

But thanks anyway for your thoughtful thoughts!

[DoughtyOne]

Like Trump, the media had really done a number on the divisive Reagan in 1980. Trump’s numbers now are similar to Reagan’s then.

Which person do you think had/has higher negatives, Carter or Clinton?

Trump us going to literally destroy her.

It won’t even be close.

[Mechanicos]

That’s funny. You really believe the GOPe NeverTrump Party insider delegates are going to support Cruz at the Convention.

If they were all in for the Establishment’s NeverTrump tool like you imagine he would not have lost the South and barely won his home State.

[DrewsDad]

In most states, the delegates to their convention vote for the national delegates or at least vote to approve (or reject) the report from a nominations committee with a slate of delegates. If a campaign is organized and has their supporters there, then they can influence the selection.

For those states that limit the grassroots influence, you move to change the rules on how the delegates are selected through the rules committee.

[Pollster1]

Mr. Trump gives so few specifics, and he evinces so little understanding of many important issues, that I find it impossible to agree on that point. But thanks anyway for your thoughtful thoughts!

I believe Cruz would go to Congress with several lists of specifics. Pass this bill repealing Obamacare effective the end of 2017, with no replacement. Pass this budget with zero funding for Planned Parenthood, effective immediately. Pass this bill raising funding for border security and ICE deportations and streamlining or eliminating frivolous appeals, starting in 60 days so they have time to plan and to ramp up.

I believe the Trump approach would be very different. My hope is that Trump would say "pass bills within these broad parameters", without caring about the details. He would sign even bad bills that only get part of the job done and then say "that's not enough, go back and do some more to secure the border or to cut federal funding for abortion". I agree that Trump has less understanding than Cruz on many issues, and I'm okay with that if he can demonstrate the ability to hire the right people in the political world (a weak area for him so far).

I'm okay with both approaches.

[DrewsDad]

Part of the process is the discernment to only vote for delegates that are loyal to your campaign and not part of the GOPe that might backstab you.

Selecting the Rules Committee members from each state is critical here as well.

[NKP_Vet]

O’Reilly is predicting Cruz/Kasich will be the team to lead the GOP forward. Both are so loved. One an illegal alien posing as a US citizen, the other a democrat posing as a republican.

[Tammy8]

If Cruz ends up being the nominee on the 4th or 10th or 100th ballot wouldn’t he still need votes in November? Or is he such a political genius he thinks he can win with the lowest turnout in history?