Cruz is likely to block Trump on a second ballot at the GOP convention

Washington Post ^ | 04/13/2016 | Ed O' Keefe

[SeekAndFind]

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz is close to ensuring that Donald Trump cannot win the GOP nomination on a second ballot at the party’s July convention in Cleveland, scooping up scores of delegates who have pledged to vote for him instead of the front-runner if given the chance.

The push by Cruz means that it is more essential than ever for Trump to clinch the nomination by winning a majority of delegates to avoid a contested and drawn-out convention fight, which Trump seems almost certain to lose.

The GOP race now rests on two cliffhangers: Can Trump lock up the nomination before Cleveland? And if not, can Cruz cobble together enough delegates to win a second convention vote if Trump fails in the first?

Trump’s path to amassing the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright has only gotten narrower after losing to Cruz in Wisconsin and other recent contests, and would require him to perform better in the remaining states than he has to this point.

In addition, based on the delegate selections made by states and territories, Cruz is poised to pick up at least 130 more votes on a second ballot, according to a Washington Post analysis. That tally surpasses 170 delegates under less conservative assumptions — a number that could make it impossible for Trump to emerge victorious.

[fooman]

Not Rubio. The facts are just not there.

[SmokingJoe]

That’s like saying Obama runs the DOJ.

[Liz]

THIS JUST IN: Ted Cruz's and Marco Rubio's supporters have
teamed up in Arkansas to pack the state delegation with individuals
who'll turn against Donald Trump in a contested convention in Cleveland.

==========================================

Oh, wait a sec......I hear Arkansas delegates are getting mailings.....about all
the amenities at Mar a Lago. Amazing what a flight in Trump’s plane and a
night at Mar a Lago might do for a delegate's attitude.

How you gonna keep a delegate in a Canuck's camp
after they've been wined and dined in Palm Beach?

[fooman]

Well said.

[Blue Turtle]

Rulz are rulz - he’s not cheating, he’s winning!! WOO HOO. (sarcasm)

[plewis1250]

Think again.

Until someone hits 1237, it ain’t over.

[Trump-a-licious]

Cruz = Shmooze = GOPe is likely to block ...

fixed it ...

[fooman]

Will be interesting to see if that turns into a full blown alliance.

Kasich visibly winced when asked if he would be trump’s vp.

[JEDI4S]

Like Reagan/Bush.

VooDoo Bush was tapped to bring the party together.

Same here.

At some point most will realize that Trump/Cruz is the only ticket that can win the general, save the Senate and send some reinforcements to the House.

But in the meantime....enjoy the “DONNYBROOK”.

Jedi.

[Hawthorn]

>> That will be a hollow victory after which Trump voters sit it out <<

Some will, to be sure. But the questions is, “How many?”

The only survey on the matter I’ve seen said that about 30% of Mr. Trump’s voters would not support a GOP nominee other than their current favorite.

So if the GOP electorate is about one-third of the total national electorate, then the failure to nominate Mr. Trump could translate into a potential GOP loss of about 10% of total national vote — votes that otherwise would be in the GOP column.

Now, if that 10% of voters decided all to vote for the Dhimmis, they would seem to give Hillary or Bernie or Uncle Joe a 20% advantage over the GOP.

But if those disaffected Trumpidians decided either (a) to sit it out, or (b) vote third party, then the net advantage accruing to the Dhimmi nominee should be around 10%.

In the former case, the Dhimmis win hands down. But under the second assumption, I’d say the GOP nominee would have a fighting chance — albeit a long, hard slog.

[SmokingJoe]

The state rules are very clear, Ohio's delegates are bound to Kasic for the first round of voting, irrespective of Kasic drping out before the convention:

Here’s what the Ohio Republican Party Rules say about the delegates:

ARTICLE X, Section 1(d) – The winner of the 2016 Ohio Presidential Primary shall be awarded all 66 delegates and 63 alternates to the Republican National Convention whether the delegates are at-large or awarded by Congressional district.

Brittany Warner, Communications Director for the Ohio Republican Party, told Conservative Review that the delegates remain bound only for the first ballot.
Warner also confirmed that the first ballot binding must be for Kasich, and no one else. Warner said, “what you questioned yesterday[regarding delegates going to Trump] is not correct. As the rules state, the 66 delegates will go to the winner of the Ohio primary (John Kasich).”

- See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/03/upon-exiting-race-kasichs-ohio-delegates-are-not-bound-to-trump#sthash.QRJjxF3v.dpuf
- See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/03/upon-exiting-race-kasichs-ohio-delegates-are-not-bound-to-trump#sthash.QRJjxF3v.dpuf

[DrewsDad]

The real strategy is to get delegates selected that are loyal to you. Courting them afterwards is not very effective.

[driftdiver]

oh cmon, Cruz should be helping Trump. Anything else is unfair@!!!!

[mac_truck]

That’s like saying Obama runs the DOJ.

[driftdiver]

Yep, which has been Trumps purpose this entire time. Disrupt and generate chaos.

[SPRINK]

Trump has 37.01% right now, which, last I checked, is higher than 28%.
It’s also going to shoot up after New York votes.
___________________________

true, but Trumps would be by far the lowest in modern history.

[DoughtyOne]

Trump has 42% more delegates than Cruz.

That is before the New York / New England primaries.

The guy is getting 10-20,000 people out to OVERFLOW rallies, and you think he needs to learn how to to run a legitimate campaign.

It sounds as if you think Trump is losing.

Ted’s propagandists have really done a number on you.

The sooner you come to realize that, the better for you.

[driftdiver]

You can add never been bankrupt and never been divorced to that list.