The Rule: First Candidate to 1,237 Wins

Townhall.com ^ | April 12, 2016 | David Limbaugh

[Kaslin]

I have been concerned for some time that forces supporting Donald Trump have intentionally been laying the groundwork for claiming that Trump will have been cheated if he doesn't earn the GOP nomination.

When this primary season began, few people gave Ted Cruz a snowball's chance to be in serious contention, but he has repeatedly demonstrated just how much people underestimated him.

He not only is the most informed and consistent on policy but also has assembled a grass-roots organization whose sophistication makes Obama's then-cutting-edge 2008 campaign look like 1990.

Cruz has been ganged up on from the beginning but has outlasted the vicious charges and is now on an upward arc. He is the only candidate who has survived the damning mini-labels of Trump that helped undo Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and others.

But Trump is no dummy, either. By relentlessly bellowing "Lyin' Ted," he planted seeds for defamatory remarks against Cruz in case the tide of the campaign would tilt in his favor, as it appears to have done.

Cruz is systematically fulfilling the prophecy he made that he would begin to defeat Trump as the field narrowed, when people would focus more on the contrast between him and Trump. Since Rubio dropped out, Cruz has won far more delegates than Trump, whose negatives are through the roof, especially with women.

Cruz is also mopping up delegates in caucuses and primaries in the various states because he is more prepared, more organized and more committed -- and because he is humble enough to know he has to attend to details in every aspect of this campaign. And the delegates who Trump claims are being stolen are choosing Cruz because they see him as the more presidential and reliable of the two.

Yet Trump-favoring media and commentators, as if on cue, spread the canard that Cruz is strong-arming delegates and "stealing" them. That some are receptive to this is a testament to the effectiveness of all the previous slanders against Lion Ted Cruz.

Many Trump supporters seem to think they have an exclusive claim to angst against the ruling class. They alone are "we the people." They alone are entitled to their nominee, especially because he has a lead in the delegate count.

I've had many suggest that at such time as it becomes mathematically impossible for Cruz to win a majority of delegates going into the convention, he should withdraw -- "because he can't win." Moreover, the people have spoken, they say, and they support Trump, so everyone must get out of the way -- rules be damned.

I assume that many of these Trump supporters are green about the process and are just overly eager for their guy, but others know better. For the incontrovertible fact is that the rules for a century and a half have provided that a candidate must get a majority of delegates to win.

That threshold happens to be 1,237 delegates. No one has ever credibly suggested that a candidate with a plurality of delegates must be anointed as the nominee. Those now arguing this are the ones wanting to suspend the rules, not those who support the time-honored rule. If this thinking had prevailed in 1860, Abraham Lincoln would not have been nominated that year. He was a distant second to William Seward on the first ballot and prevailed on the third ballot.

The delegates of most states are pledged to a certain candidate for the first ballot -- and some through the second ballot -- but afterward they are released to vote for whomever they choose on subsequent ballots.

Unhappily for the Trump camp, Trump is, according to renowned statistician Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, the weakest GOP front-runner in modern history. Also, even people who have voted for him in earlier states may very well have buyer's remorse at this point.

But Team Trump, sticking to its message that Trump is inevitable, has adopted another clever tactic in trying to establish a fallback narrative in case he fails to reach 1,237 before Cleveland. The Trump folks spawned the conspiracy theory that Cruz is colluding with the establishment in the states to deny Trump the nomination. This dovetails with their consistent theme that Trump is the only outsider in the race.

But in fact, the party hasn't united around Cruz. Most establishment people probably prefer Cruz over Trump, but it's not because he is any less anti-establishment or less of a threat to business as usual in Washington. It's because they fear that Trump is volatile, unpresidential and authoritarian and know that Cruz is the only one who can beat him.

Over the weekend, Cruz continued to outwork, outmaneuver and outshine Trump, especially in Colorado, where Cruz won all 34 delegates. Immediately, the Trump forces cried that they were cheated out of the process. The implication is that "Lyin' Ted" broke the rules and "stole" the delegates. But there was no cheating. As FiveThirtyEight also reported, Trump "slipped up in Colorado. ... Instead of putting together a top-notch convention team, Trump's campaign was a mess." Ari Armstrong, a Colorado Republican who participated in the caucuses, wrote, "The simple fact is that the Republicans in my precinct caucus mostly disfavored Trump, and evidently that is true of most other precincts as well." And though Trump blasted the GOP's delegate rules Sunday and said a "corrupt" system is robbing him of delegates, NBC analysts say Trump has benefited more than Cruz "under the party's arcane rules for allocating delegates," having been awarded 45 percent of the delegates despite having won just 37 percent of all the votes.

Trump is not entitled to the nomination unless and until he reaches the magic number, and neither is Cruz. It is sad that some who are claiming their votes don't count are the same ones who are saying Cruz votes shouldn't count -- that Trump should be anointed now or when it becomes mathematically impossible for Cruz to win on the first ballot.

Team Cruz is not suggesting we twist the rules but insisting we adhere to them. Let's all agree to honor and play by the rules and recognize the winner of a majority of delegates when that moment occurs.

[fortheDeclaration]

The spirit of the primaries is that onece a candidate knows he cannot reach the majority of the candidates, he drops out.

The fact that Kasich and Cruz have no intention of doing so (Cruz will be mathematically eliminated in a few weeks) shows that they do not understand the purpose of primaries.

According to the logic of the Cruz supporters, no candidate should ever drop out and should remain in to stop the frontrunner from getting the required majority of delegates so there will be a convention fight.

Preparing for a convention battle while plotting to keep the frontrunner from getting the majority of delegates is not following the spirit of the primaries, but is underhanded.

[fortheDeclaration]

If he falls short because Cruz plotted to keep delegates away from him Cruz has violated the spirit of primaries.

If Cruz and Trump were running neck and neck that would be one thing, but Cruz will be mathematically eliminated in a couple weeks and is only trying to stop Trump from getting the majority so he can fight it out in the convention.

[fortheDeclaration]

Only because Cruz didn't follow the spirit of the primaries and plotted a convention fight.

Candidates do not scheme just to keep the other guy from getting the majority when they know they can't get it.

Don't complain if Cruz manages to steal the nomination from the frontrunner and we Trump supporters tell Cruz to take a hike.

[fortheDeclaration]

The primaries are run to prevent convention fights, not have them.

For candidates to be plotting and scheming a convention battle against the frontrunner is unethical, something you Cruz supporters can't grasp since you are power mad, like Cruz.

[fortheDeclaration]

Yes, and then the Cruz supporters will be exposed as the frauds they are.

Cruz isn't running a campaign to win the majority of delegates, he is running a campaign to stop Trump from doing so and then steal the nomination at the convention!

This is not the way the primary system works, it is manipulation of the rules while ignoring the spirit behind the rules.

[fortheDeclaration]

Try selling that garbage to the Trump voters, we aren't buying it.

If Cruz did win the nomination with his dirty tactics, he won't have us to vote for him.

So don't whine about Hillary getting elected, you guys made a choice to run a scorched earth policy and Trump supporters will be gone.

Cruz will never be elected without Trump supporters votes.

Of course the GOPe could care less, since they are happy with Hillary and will regain control of the Party apparatus after using Cruz as their tool.

[Hoodat]

If Cruz did win the nomination with his dirty tactics

By 'dirty tactics', do you mean showing up at the caucuses, having supporters successfully campaign for convention seats, having those supporters show up at the convention, and persuade others at the convention to vote for delegates that will back Cruz in Cleveland? Dirty tactics?

[dead]

Geez, why the flop-sweat panic from Team Trump?

Play by the rules, strategize, plan, build your position, get smarter as the game progresses, be proactive, be flexible and quick on your feet. Think. Don't whine or cry or try to change the rules late in the game.

What kind of leader whines about his opponent beating him in accordance with the established rules?President Crybaby, and the contest is still active.

[fortheDeclaration]

We're not in a panic at all!

We are disgusted at the Cruz campaign and it's supporters who justify it's underhanded attempt to highjack the nomination.

In a couple weeks Cruz will be exposed again as a loser with the voters and will be mathematically eliminated from getting the majority of delegates, but he won't drop out since he is not concerned with the majority of delegates he is only concerned with making sure Trump doesn't get that number.

Trump supporters see right through the contemptible strategy of Cruz and the GOPe to negate the votes of the millions of Trump voters.

[fortheDeclaration]

By 'dirty tactics' I mean using the Party establishment to make rules that the average GOP voter has no idea about and avoid voting at all!

The dirty tactics are to stop Trump from getting the majority of delegates using any means to do so, even though Cruz himself won't get the number either.

No primary has ever been run like this, where two candidates who have no chance of winning the majority of delegates stay in the race just to stop the frontrunner from getting the number!

And then you think we Trump supporters are going to vote for Cruz?

Cruz is acting like a true Harvard trained lawyer, using the rules to circumvent the spirit of the primaries, where voters decide who the candidate should be.

[VerySadAmerican]

No. Spoken like an American voter who can vote for whomever he wants. Or not vote.

Just like you can vote for whomever you choose. But I would like you to answer one question. If Cruz gets the nomination and if he beats Hillary, what will you say when he signs an amnesty bill? And don’t give me the “I don’t answer hypothetical questions” crap. It’s a simple question that you know is not only a possibility but a probability because the gopE will own Cruz lock, stock and Canadian barrel.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Yes and if Cruz really had a chance he would be running his campaign in a straightforward manner as is Trump and all the other candidates. None of which have been accused of dirty trix.

Come April 19th Teddy will start the long goodbye which will hopefully turn into the short goodbye.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Never mind that Trump doesn’t get 1237. He deserves the nomination because he has called more people names and his followers have insulted more people than anyone else.

[Hoodat]

By 'dirty tactics' I mean using the Party establishment to make rules that the average GOP voter has no idea about and avoid voting at all!

The Party establishment didn't make the rules - rules that have been in place since 2004, nor did Ted Cruz have any influence over them. And the only ones here having no idea about Colorado's delegate selection are members of the Trump campaign.

No primary has ever been run like this

That would be because it isn't a primary. It's a caucus.

Colorado adopted caucuses for the purpose of restraining establishment power. The national GOP wanted Colorado to bind their delegates. The Colorado GOP refused.

So nothing dirty occurred in Colorado. Ted Cruz did exactly what he was supposed to do under their convention system. Ted set up an organization there many months ago. Donald Trump did not. Ted Cruz got delegates elected. Donald Trump did not.

Instead of falsely characterizing Ted Cruz as using 'dirty tactics', you should instead question Donald Trump for using 'no tactics'. It's hard for Trump to win any delegates when his team doesn't show up.

[HarborSentry]

Not really. Just rioting. Sadly, it seems to work for the lefties.

It’s an important point, though. We will need that alternative once enough illegals have the vote.

[Jack Hammer]

When the rules are not fixed, but can be changed at the whim of Washington insiders, then everyone is clueless.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

I think the Lefties are just waiting for the “go” signal from Obola to initiate the usual alternative of fascists.

The trick at that point will be to out-fascist them.

[fortheDeclaration]

The entire Colorado system is set up to deny the average voter any input and to be dominated by insider's.

No wonder the GOP is so weak in that State.

[Cboldt]

I know that conventional wisdom is that 1237 wins, but that rule isn’t carved in stone. The party is allowed to erect whatever hurdle it wants, 60%, 65%, some arbitrary fraction would be permissible.

[fortheDeclaration]

When I was speaking of the primary, I wasn't speaking of Colorado in particular but the how we choose the GOP nominee.

The primary system was put in place to decide who should be the nominee.

When someone is mathematically eliminated he drops out, he doesn't plan a convention fight.

That is the dirty tactics of Cruz