Posted on 04/07/2016 6:10:31 AM PDT by Rockitz
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
NY: 75 of 95
CT + MD + RI + DE + PA: 95 of 172
IN: 6 of 57
NE + WV: 20 of 70 (Cruz gets WTA 36 in Nebraska) - but WV gives 25 to statewide winner!
OR: 10 of 28
WA: 20 of 44
NJ: 51 of 51
MT: 0 of 27
SD: 29 of 29
CA: 94 of 172
NM: 18
How happy will you be when we lose the Senate?
Beck had the same prediction this morning. Hmnnn.
We are thrilled that our politicians are always for sale otherwise we would never get anything done.
I have been trying to tell my friends and family for 40 years that elections are a sham not unlike the old Russian elections where only one name appears on the ballot.
You are 100% correct. I remember a few months ago that any speculation involving Trump reaching the required amount of delegate concluded with him still getting the nom if he was within 100-150. Now it seems that since that is becoming a reality, everyone wants to count down to the last delegate and only then should he receive the nomination. If Trump falls short of the nomination by 100 delegates there is no doubt in my mind he will run as an independent. That will surely put Hillary in the White House, and as you stated determine the next 5 judges. And all the while, while guns are grabbed, the borders are dissolved etc. we will be sitting here arguing with ourselves about Cruz/Trump voters being responsible for it.
Did his phone come in a crate from ACME?
Might want to RTFM...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_in_the_Minds_of_Men
Seems pretty complicated for Generation XBox, who've thus far managed to produce little more than ratings for American Idolatry and Dancing with the Perverts -- in between commercials for Beer, Erectile Dysfunction, Anti-depressants, Sleeping Pills, and Depends.
Meanwhile, Putin and his Co-Oligarchs smile and wait...
In 1860 most people never learned who was President until their term was nearly over. This is today and the outright theft is now known immediately.
I am amazed that FR is infested with longtime members who purport to be Conservative that have no problem with supporting the very people they have long pretended to be opposed to.
For the Rules are Rules crowd.
When you are innocent argue the facts. When you are guilty argue the law.
Sounds right. If Trump can't win it fair and square, playing by the rules, he'll try to win it by threat.
"Lincoln won the GOP nomination in 1860 at a contested convention."
I see this brought up from time to time as though it was a good thing. Lincoln might have turned out to some to be a good president, but he was HIGHLY unpopular, especially in the northeast (let alone the south). And remember, his election ushered in a terrible war. Do we really want something like that now?
Well, seems to me there are 2 sets of rules...First, the pre-convention shenanigans...
What is being done prior to the convention—where Kasich and Cruz surrogates are revisiting states won by Trump to “wrangle” (to use word of another poster - I prefer “pilfer”) delegates. I see it as theft...I really do.
Second, then there are the ballot votes at the convention where the pilfered delegates can be “released” as early as second vote...or perhaps worse, the GOPe can insert a new candidate for nomination such as Paul Ryan...Again, so much for representative government.
So I don’t like both situations...
I don’t like the pilfering of delegates at the state level—if the state went for Trump the delegates should vote Trump and not be schmoozed before the convention to change their vote on second ballot. I think negotiating should be done at the convention should a situation such as you described occur where there is not a clear majority winner. Frankly, I would like to see these votes and negotiations televised—then perhaps I and other concerned citizens could better understand this mysterious process...
I also don’t like the convention rules whereby the GOPe can insert an new candidate who was not even running in the primary such as Paul Ryan.
Actually, I did look into becoming a delegate this fall, but the deadline had passed. Given the way the GOP party is moving, I am not sure that I would be comfortable there anymore.
Oh, and I want to make clear I agree with your idea!
I personally think the best rule is that delegates pledged to a candidate must continue to vote for that candidate on subsequent ballots as long as that candidate is one of the top two vote getters. There may even be states that have such a rule because those rules are set by each state’s own p
Oh, I didn’t know that Ryan is campaigning for Trump. When did that happen? Maybe he will make robocalls and do fundraisers for him like Romney or Graham. Even better, he could give him his finance team like Jeb did.
Trump is going to DC to meet with Paul Ryan today - guess he is selling out to the GOPe.
Cruz, OTOH, has “embraced” the GOPe support and has absorbed Bush campaign and finance staff...
So who is selling out to the GOPe?
In all honesty, the RNC is not the problem. All those rules are set at the state level, which is why they're patchwork as hell. But just using myself as an example, I've never paid any attention to who I'm electing to the party's committees, etc., even though those offices actually appear on the ballot. So, it's partly my own damn fault if I don't like the state rules.
That was all before Twitter. Most people were entirely ignorant of the sausage making that went on in the smoky back rooms. We had to wait for MovieTone News at the Saturday matinee to learn most of this stuff.
The notion that we the people have ever had any influence over who is selected as the nominee is just naive.
If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it."
Mark Twain -
Nor his army of whiners.
Their big problem may be that many of Trump's delegates hate him.
Or at least they are just terrified what would happen if he got the nomination.(elect Hillary)
That certainly seems to be their fear.
So as soon as they are unbound in the second or third round, we might see a massive movement away from Trump. He is terrified of that.
Of course Trump will blame that on Cruz, that is his strategy. If Trump lost his wallet he would blame it on Cruz.
Trump, like most of us, was not prepared to deal with the absolute corruption of The Peoples Government. But hey corruption is cool if it tends to improve our personal aspirations.
“Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination”
Great news for the GOPe and the ‘fresh new face’ that they will nominate at the Convention.
Ted’s usefulness ends as soon as Rinse Penis and his cronies are sure that Trump is not a threat.
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