Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination

Breitbart.com ^ | 6 Apr 2016 | Mike Flynn & Michael Patrick Leahy

[Rockitz]

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.

Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.

A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.

As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.

In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.

[Mozilla]

Good idea. If the debate is not a clown show all of it. My only problem is Cruz’s child like presidential behavior in the last few debates. It probably makes Trump’s blood boil. Trump has to be coached to withstand Cruz’s childish behavior.

[Mozilla]

Good idea. If the debate is not a clown show all for it. My only problem is Cruz’s child like presidential behavior in the last few debates. It probably makes Trump’s blood boil. Trump has to be coached to withstand Cruz’s childish behavior.

[GOPJ]

The Establishment will never give this to Cruz. Cruz is being played for a fool by people in the party who hate him. They want him to knock out Trump so they can elect whoever the hell they want on the second or third round.

I know this much - I will NOT vote for their choice. And they can play that ‘Supreme Court’ card as long as they want - I’m not buying it. Bush put in liberal judges and I’m sure Jeb or Linda or Romney would do the same.

If the GOP Establishment thinks we’re all gonna ‘come round’ they’re wrong. I will never vote for a GOPe person again the rest of my life...

[fatez]

Unless someone has the goods on Cruz on this, its just more speculation to produce FUD. I have a problem when so called conservatives run with rumors (I am not saying you are running with it). Conservatives should be about facts and worldview.

If Cruz really was behind this, I would drop him like a hot-potato.

[Starstruck]

If Trump and Cruz joined together today as president/vp they would have 1260 combined delegates.

You seem to think the candidates own these delegates. They only get their votes on however many ballots their respective states require. After that they are free agents. There are probably at lot of Cruz delegates that wouldn't vote for Trump come hell or high water and vice versa.

[mlo]

"RNC already said Trump won’t get the nomination regardless of whether he hits 1237. Why continue?"

The RNC has said no such thing.

[Freedom56v2]

What ground game..you mean the weaseling he does after losing a primary election?

---

This is what really disturbs me about the process. I voted for Trump. Trump won my state. Why is it fair or reasonable in any world that a delegate can turn around and vote against the people’s choice for the state? Why should their votes be more important than those of the state they represent?

The Cruz supporters would be outraged if this happened with the General Election and the Electoral college just voted for whoever they wanted (whoever schmoozed them the best).

[kabar]

but not all of the opposition is paid

LOL. They are just leftist agitators trying to silence Trump.

I don’t think what I said is BS and I am definitely not peddling it.

I do think it is BS pushed by the Left and some Reps like Cruz and Kasich who blame Trump for the violence and the protestors.

Chicago: The protests were organized for weeks and included anti-police groups, Communists and violent open borders groups. The event was called over security concerns.

On Chicago, Cruz sided with the radical leftists saying: "When the candidate urges supporters to engage in physical violence, to punch people in the face, the predictable consequence of that is that is escalates. Today is unlikely to be the last such incidence."

Do you think that Cruz is correct? Is Trump inviting and partially responsible for the violence? Why do you think Trump has become the target? What did Cruz do to incite the violent reaction to his presence in the Bronx?

[Kandy Atz]

Destroying the party has been his goal along. That is what he is being paid to do by his friends the Clintons. Why do you think him and Bill had that two hour phone call just before he announced? He’s been running as the perfect example of what Hollywood/NPR/NYT Liberals think all conservatives are. Bigoted, misogynistic, xenophobic, loud, boorish and vulgar. If they could just find a trailer park living, tube top wearing relative somewhere it would be the perfect parody.

I have been saying variations of this as well. I am so glad so many others recognize this truth. Along these same lines, I believe Cruz made a rather astute observation at the Wisconsin town hall regarding Trump's answers to various questions on issues like abortion. He answers the way he THINKS Conservatives would answer. At times, his responses seem reasonable, but more often than not, they sound like they are written for an SNL skit mocking Conservatives. There is no deep thinking on the ethical, moral, Constitutional, or even Spiritual reasons why murdering babies is wrong. No. Trump's knee-jerk response is that society should punish women who have abortions. Is this a well thought out, reasonable, or even conservative approach? Or is it because that is what HE THINKS Conservatives want to hear? Same thing with the wall, immigration, trade, any issue. His answers are rarely founded on Constitutional principles, Christian morality, or even Conservative values.

[semantic]

It will just be millions of Republican voters feeling betrayed and staying home or writing in Trump.

So what? Do you think the GOPe cares if they lose the presidency and practically every race downstream? Oh noes, democratic policies would be implemented without opposition!

LOL. That meme is what keeps suckers in line. Politicians - in either wing of the uni-party - could hardly give a sh!t about partisan politics.

They key is to maintain control over the party organization itself. It's the golden ticket, because it's the vehicle by which untold amounts of lucre are funneled to insiders.

[Just mythoughts]

Do you think that Cruz is correct? Is Trump inviting and partially responsible for the violence? Why do you think Trump has become the target? What did Cruz do to incite the violent reaction to his presence in the Bronx?

I think Cruz said the candidate is responsible... for the T O N E!!!! That guy seems very unhappy with the Cruz .... T O N E!!!!. Better TONE it down Ted.

[fatez]

Kabar, there is no doubt in my mind that Trump uses inflammatory language such as "punch them in the face". I really don't believe such rhetoric belongs in politics. However, I do think the left is dangerous and practices violence. And I think Cruz should have condemned the protestors without equivocation, but that does not excuse Trump. I get part of the appeal of Trump is that he fights back. I support Cruz, but I am luke warm at best.

But you should see the flack I have caught right here on FR by some Trumpsters. The language between Cruzers and Trumpsters on this site has gotten out of control. I don't mind tweaking you and I don't mind you tweaking me, but I do believe we need to respect each other in order to have honest discourse about our politic disagreements.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

I know this much - I will NOT vote for their choice.

Neither Trump nor Cruz was my guy, but if they railroad in someone else, even if I like them more, I'm with you.

The only exception would be if the other two guys clearly self-destructed between now and then, and everyone knew we had to go in another direction. Like, if pictures come out of Cruz banging those women, or if Trump does something so bizarre that even his core support cracks.

But other than something bizarre, it just has to be one of those two guys. Wouldn't be fair if it wasn't.

[kabar]

If Cruz really was behind this, I would drop him like a hot-potato.

Behind what? The reaction he got in the Bronx? Of course he is in no way responsible any more than Trump is. The Left has been disrupting GOP campaign events for many years. I have seen them firsthand.

In 2012 I attended a Romney campaign event in VA outside DC. People were lining the street with pro-Romney signs outside the entrance to the event, which was held outside. Suddenly. several buses arrived filled with black demonstrators (about 150 of them) who came with megaphones shouting No Justice, No Peace. They deliberately stepped in front of the people holding the pro-Romney signs to block them from view. It was a tense situation and the police did nothing about it.

Did Romney bear responsibility for these demonstrators? Why don't we see similar disruptions by the "far right" at Dem campaign events?

Again, stop peddling this crap that Trump or any Rep is responsible for these agitators who are bent on inciting violence and shutting down free speech.

[ZULU]

There are over 800 delegates still out there. Trump needs only a few over 500 to win the magic number. He will pick up New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California. He just needs a few more and he did manage to get 6 delegates out of Wisconsin despite the best efforts of Walker and Paul Ryan to beat him by backing Cruz

[Aria]

Thank you for being civil. :-) It’s become a bit rare around here at times.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

This is what really disturbs me about the process. I voted for Trump. Trump won my state. Why is it fair or reasonable in any world that a delegate can turn around and vote against the people’s choice for the state? Why should their votes be more important than those of the state they represent?

Here's the issue -- I think most of us agree that a rule requiring the nominee to gain a majority of votes is reasonable - that's sort of the basis of any democratic system. And given the very real possibility that a convention could begin with no candidate having a majority, the rules must permit delegates, at some point, to vote for someone other than the person to whom they were pledged. Otherwise, every ballot would have the exact same candidates getting the exact same votes, and nobody would ever get a majority.

I personally think the best rule is that delegates pledged to a candidate must continue to vote for that candidate on subsequent ballots as long as that candidate is one of the top two vote getters. There may even be states that have such a rule because those rules are set by each state's own party.

Best thing I could say is that if you want to have more of a voice in the delegate rules for your state, be more active in the party, and pay more attention to who gets appointed to the party's central committee. I'm not sure any other solution is really possible.

[fatez]

You may be right and then Trump is the nominee...But that is not what the original question / story is about is it.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

Problem is that the Pennsylvania delegates are unbound. So it is really going to depend upon the ground game of electing the right people to be delegates.

[kabar]

But you should see the flack I have caught right here on FR by some Trumpsters. The language between Cruzers and Trumpsters on this site has gotten out of control. I don't mind tweaking you and I don't mind you tweaking me, but I do believe we need to respect each other in order to have honest discourse about our politic disagreements.

I am disagreeing with your affixing the blame for the violent demonstrators at Trump campaign events on Trump. These are not spontaneous incidents prompted by Trump's language, which is more often than not taken out of context. I have attended a Trump rally. It was peaceful without any protestors. The "punch them in the face" remark came due a woman being choked by a demonstrator. They are physically attacking Trump supporters who have a choice of turning the other cheek or defending themselves.

You can bet that the Left will target the Rep convention in Cleveland. It will be large and violent and it has nothing to do with Trump or Cruz. It is part of the orchestrated political theater of the Alinski-ites. It is disappointing to hear Cruz and Kasich jump on the Left's bandwagon blaming Trump. I will guarantee you that no matter if the nominee is Trump or Cruz, the demonstrations by the Left will be many and large during the general election. It is a way to energize the Dem base against the racists and bigots called GOP. Your comments about Trump are just Leftist rhetoric.