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Donald Trump Will (Almost Certainly) Never Be Elected President. Here’s Why.
Washington Post ^ | March 21, 2016 | Greg Sargent

Posted on 03/21/2016 10:19:26 PM PDT by Steelfish

Donald Trump Will (Almost Certainly) Never Be Elected President. Here’s Why.

By Greg Sargent March 21

With Donald Trump steamrolling towards the GOP nomination, the political chatter is increasingly focused on whether Trump could win a general election by making surprise inroads into states in the industrial Midwest. Many Democrats and nonpartisan observers see this as probably the only plausible (if that’s even the right word for it) path for Trump, who might do this mainly by running up huge numbers among white voters — particularly blue collar whites.

But a new examination of the demographics and projected voting patterns in some of the key Rust Belt states underscores just how unlikely this really is.

snip)

Given the overall margins that Obama won these states by — which are in some cases quite large — Trump would have to improve enormously on Romney’s performance among blue collar whites:

— In Michigan, where Romney beat Obama by 53-45 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 62-36, an improvement of 18 points.

— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.

— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points. — In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points. (This is lower than the others because Ohio was much closer overall; but even six points is a pretty sizable improvement.)

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: New York
KEYWORDS: angertrolling; consensuscracking; demagogicparty; districtofcolumbia; fishrot; forumsliding; gregsargent; memebuilding; michigan; ohio; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; pennsylvania; rustbelt; tdsnightshift; topicdilution; trump; washingtoncompost; washingtonpost; wisconsin
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To: Steelfish
Cruze or Lose. Thanks Trumpkins (sarc) if the Donald becomes the republican standard bearer

On the flip side - it may very well be "Cruz and Lose" with some polls saying that large numbers of republicans won't vote for him

Many of us remember the shenanigans in Mississippi so the RNC/GOPe could keep Thad Cochran in the Senate - Cruz's vow to stay in as a spoiler smacks of the same sort of crap and people are noticing that along with some other contradictory statements that belie his "Constitutional Purism" as opportunities to leverage Left-Wing Points of View arise in his desperation - bad enough when his supporters have breakdowns (I merely switched to our best chance after sending Cruz lots of my money) but to have the campaigner start to melt down is ....worrisome.

101 posted on 03/22/2016 4:55:56 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: Steelfish

I see it lie by making up statistics day for the Hate Trump Always clown posse.

Rather then look at dark blue states. Look at the 2 key swing state,.

Ohio Trump alone, in a 4 way race, got MORE votes then Clinton.

In FL Trump, in a 4 way race, got just under 20,000 fewer votes then Clinton, in a 2 way rac.

So rather then attempt to cherry pick numbers out of states Clinton will win no matter what, look at the states that actually matter.

Clinton loses big time.


102 posted on 03/22/2016 4:56:06 AM PDT by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: Steelfish

So other they post lie after lie, do you EVER pause to even read and think about what you are posting?

Rather then races feverishly around the web looking for the next lie to validate your ignorance, try actually READING and THINKING for a change.


103 posted on 03/22/2016 4:57:50 AM PDT by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: LoneRangerMassachusetts

Trump will not be President. Never. It ain’t gonna happen. Polls show that He is the only candidate hated more than Hillary and the billion dollar campaign against him hasn’t even started yet.


104 posted on 03/22/2016 5:09:27 AM PDT by Buck-I-Guy
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To: Steelfish
The Washington Post is "KOOL-AID" for those living inside the beltway.

As long as the Post continues to openly spew BULL$HIT those inside the beltway can keep their heads from exploding.

105 posted on 03/22/2016 5:17:29 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: Byron_the_Aussie
Making it simple and coherent for even you, doggie...

H.L. Menken once said that for every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. Nowhere is that more evident than when dealing with Trump supporters.

106 posted on 03/22/2016 5:17:49 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Steelfish
Trump wins only because of a fractured vote. One on one, Cruz cleans Trump clock

Sigh. Trump is garnering the most delegates for one simple reason, message. His message is putting America first. It's the same ting that Reagan did. Just like now, all kinds of $H!T was thrown at Reagan. History is repeating itself. By the way on a side note, Cruz should have hired a speech coach. He has a lousy timbre. He should of had a face lift to fix his sad face eyes.

107 posted on 03/22/2016 5:27:34 AM PDT by LoneRangerMassachusetts (behind enemy lines)
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To: Steelfish

The article assumes that Hillary does as well as Obama among blacks and other minorities and that they vote in as large numbers as they did last time. The article also assumes that the number of white working class voters (some who stayed home last time), does not increase as a percentage of overall voters.


108 posted on 03/22/2016 6:21:20 AM PDT by HapaxLegamenon
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To: onyx

lol


109 posted on 03/22/2016 7:06:36 AM PDT by Not gonna take it anymore (If Obama were twice as smart as he is, he would be a wit)
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To: Steelfish

More propaganda from the rotting fish at the Washington Post.

At this point in 1980, Ronald Reagan had a 38% approval rating according to the leftist pollsters.


110 posted on 03/22/2016 8:00:42 AM PDT by sergeantdave ( If not you, who? If not now, when?)
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To: DoughtyOne
Trump with between one and two million more votes than his competitors, is unelectable.

Do you have any idea how many people vote in the general election?

111 posted on 03/22/2016 8:26:21 AM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: SoothingDave

The point was, if you can’t even win your own side, how do you expect to win the general election.

Trump is resoundingly winning his own side.


112 posted on 03/22/2016 8:37:54 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: libbylu
if the Donald becomes the republican standard bearer I am out if he is the nominee. I won’t claim him. The gop can all go rot together.

Good. Go to hell you establishment cow.

113 posted on 03/22/2016 11:08:51 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Islam is rabies. Anyone infected needs to be put down like a dog.)
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To: MNJohnnie

Well, this is the reflexive Trumpian response. Attack the messenger not the message. Trump is like a deity. He cannot be portrayed as a scam artist and con man with zero substance but a perpetual slogan of making America great again, again, and again, and winning, winning and winning. Guess, like the worthless Trump University, the collapse of his Taj Mahal casino, Trump Shuttle, and hiring of foreign workers at Mar-a-Lago (and to say nothing of two of his H-2B visa wives) to work for him. Guess, this is work that Americans can’t or won’t do for him. And now wants to scrap NATO: great timing. When is this Trumpoonery-Buffoonery going to end?


114 posted on 03/22/2016 2:08:21 PM PDT by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish
— In Michigan, where Romney beat Obama by 53-45 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 62-36, an improvement of 18 points.

— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.

— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points.

— In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points.

Me no unnerstan dis new math. Wut givs?

115 posted on 03/22/2016 2:21:39 PM PDT by x
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