Posted on 03/21/2016 10:19:26 PM PDT by Steelfish
Donald Trump Will (Almost Certainly) Never Be Elected President. Here’s Why.
By Greg Sargent March 21
With Donald Trump steamrolling towards the GOP nomination, the political chatter is increasingly focused on whether Trump could win a general election by making surprise inroads into states in the industrial Midwest. Many Democrats and nonpartisan observers see this as probably the only plausible (if that’s even the right word for it) path for Trump, who might do this mainly by running up huge numbers among white voters — particularly blue collar whites.
But a new examination of the demographics and projected voting patterns in some of the key Rust Belt states underscores just how unlikely this really is.
snip)
Given the overall margins that Obama won these states by — which are in some cases quite large — Trump would have to improve enormously on Romney’s performance among blue collar whites:
— In Michigan, where Romney beat Obama by 53-45 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 62-36, an improvement of 18 points.
— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.
— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points. — In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points. (This is lower than the others because Ohio was much closer overall; but even six points is a pretty sizable improvement.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
On the flip side - it may very well be "Cruz and Lose" with some polls saying that large numbers of republicans won't vote for him
Many of us remember the shenanigans in Mississippi so the RNC/GOPe could keep Thad Cochran in the Senate - Cruz's vow to stay in as a spoiler smacks of the same sort of crap and people are noticing that along with some other contradictory statements that belie his "Constitutional Purism" as opportunities to leverage Left-Wing Points of View arise in his desperation - bad enough when his supporters have breakdowns (I merely switched to our best chance after sending Cruz lots of my money) but to have the campaigner start to melt down is ....worrisome.
I see it lie by making up statistics day for the Hate Trump Always clown posse.
Rather then look at dark blue states. Look at the 2 key swing state,.
Ohio Trump alone, in a 4 way race, got MORE votes then Clinton.
In FL Trump, in a 4 way race, got just under 20,000 fewer votes then Clinton, in a 2 way rac.
So rather then attempt to cherry pick numbers out of states Clinton will win no matter what, look at the states that actually matter.
Clinton loses big time.
So other they post lie after lie, do you EVER pause to even read and think about what you are posting?
Rather then races feverishly around the web looking for the next lie to validate your ignorance, try actually READING and THINKING for a change.
Trump will not be President. Never. It ain’t gonna happen. Polls show that He is the only candidate hated more than Hillary and the billion dollar campaign against him hasn’t even started yet.
As long as the Post continues to openly spew BULL$HIT those inside the beltway can keep their heads from exploding.
H.L. Menken once said that for every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. Nowhere is that more evident than when dealing with Trump supporters.
Sigh. Trump is garnering the most delegates for one simple reason, message. His message is putting America first. It's the same ting that Reagan did. Just like now, all kinds of $H!T was thrown at Reagan. History is repeating itself. By the way on a side note, Cruz should have hired a speech coach. He has a lousy timbre. He should of had a face lift to fix his sad face eyes.
The article assumes that Hillary does as well as Obama among blacks and other minorities and that they vote in as large numbers as they did last time. The article also assumes that the number of white working class voters (some who stayed home last time), does not increase as a percentage of overall voters.
lol
More propaganda from the rotting fish at the Washington Post.
At this point in 1980, Ronald Reagan had a 38% approval rating according to the leftist pollsters.
Do you have any idea how many people vote in the general election?
The point was, if you can’t even win your own side, how do you expect to win the general election.
Trump is resoundingly winning his own side.
Good. Go to hell you establishment cow.
Well, this is the reflexive Trumpian response. Attack the messenger not the message. Trump is like a deity. He cannot be portrayed as a scam artist and con man with zero substance but a perpetual slogan of making America great again, again, and again, and winning, winning and winning. Guess, like the worthless Trump University, the collapse of his Taj Mahal casino, Trump Shuttle, and hiring of foreign workers at Mar-a-Lago (and to say nothing of two of his H-2B visa wives) to work for him. Guess, this is work that Americans can’t or won’t do for him. And now wants to scrap NATO: great timing. When is this Trumpoonery-Buffoonery going to end?
— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.
— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points.
— In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points.
Me no unnerstan dis new math. Wut givs?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.