Posted on 03/19/2016 3:40:13 PM PDT by Lorianne
There is mystery at the heart of the oversupplied global oil market: missing barrels of crude. Last year, there were 800,000 barrels of oil a day unaccounted for by the International Energy Agency, the energy monitor that puts together data on crude supply and demand. Where these barrels ended up, or if they even existed, is key to an oil market that remains under pressure from the glut in crude. Some analysts say the barrels may be in China. Others believe the barrels were created by flawed accounting and they don’t actually exist.
If they don’t exist, then the oversupply that has driven crude prices to decade lows could be much smaller than estimated and prices could rebound faster. Whatever the answer, the discrepancy underscores how oil prices flip around based on data that investors are often unsure of.
Barrels have gone missing before, but last year the tally of unaccounted-for oil grew to its highest level in 17 years. At a time when the issue of oversupply dominates the oil industry, this matters. “If the market is tighter than assumed due to the missing barrels, prices could spike quicker,” said David Pursell at energy-focused investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Here’s how a barrel of crude goes “missing” in the data.
Last year, the IEA estimated that on average the world produced around 1.9 million barrels a day more crude than there was demand for. Of that crude, 770,000 barrels went into onshore storage while roughly 300,000 barrels were in transit on the seas or through pipelines. That left roughly 800,000 barrels a day unaccounted for in the data. Global oil supply is about 96 million barrels a day.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Maybe its Chinese accountants - that would explain everything.
Oh that was me. I rented an SUV and drove around the Artic a couple of times.
Wasn’t it just put into storage by anything that floated?
"And what are you going to do about it, huh?"
Smuggled by ISIS or blown up by the Russians.
Common Core math?
North Korea
When I compared 800,000 to 96 million the estimate accounted for 99.17%. That seemed pretty good to me.
Good observation...
None the less, that 800,000 barrels “could be” a goldmine to someone.
Yours is a logical quick draft opinion.
I often eliminate concerns using that line of reasoning.
Just how vital is this? Is this one of my top issues? How will it actually affect the nation? Is this something I want to hinge my decision on?
Actually measuring fluids is pretty tricky and is based on a calculated flow rate over time. If any of the parameters are wrong the total is wrong. It’s easy to calibrate error into these devices. It could be a conspiracy...
Thank you. I wonder just how good we should expect the International Energy Agency to be?
In my own little corner of the financial world I consistently estimated budget to actual for our private college with about 98% accuracy. I was always amazed my dozen or so models and department estimates of expenses could combine for such a result.
simple, one tanker load was embezzled
Venezuelan? Russian?
check Hillary’s emails......
Lybia ...
hint hint
And no jokes about gas from the BBQ.
So all these oil numbers are very suspicious.
I suspect failing oil producing countries have an incentive to inflate how much oil they pumped.
Venezuela....
If our guberment is involved in the counting we can be assured of at least 3% accuracy.
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