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Why Ted Cruz Could Win the GOP Nomination. In 2020.
Slate ^ | March 18, 2016 | William Saletan

Posted on 03/19/2016 1:14:20 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

[SNIP]

The argument against Cruz is that he’s obnoxious.His colleagues don’t like him,and exit polls show he doesn’t do nearly as well among moderate and somewhat conservative voters as he does among hardcore conservatives....That’s why,when my colleague Jamelle Bouie was betting on Cruz,I put my money on Rubio...I stand refuted.Cruz hasn’t overcome the Trump wave,but he has proved that in an angry party,his organization,discipline,and message can beat a broadly appealing rival.

Republicans who vote for Trump in 2016,only to see him abandoned by elements of their party and defeated in the general election,would be at least as angry in 2020.The notion that his loss would teach them not to support Cruz has two glaring flaws.One flaw is that the desertion of Trump by the GOP establishment,or at least part of it,would confound the equation.A Trump rout wouldn’t prove that Republicans are better off nominating a candidate like George W. Bush,because the right would be able to point to a difference between 2000 and 2016:the establishment’s betrayal of Trump.

The other problem is that Cruz isn’t Trump.Trump’s conservatism is visceral and stylistic....Cruz’s conservatism is ideological.He cares about tax cuts,deregulation,and social-issue litmus tests...If Trump loses the general election,they won’t conclude that their brand of conservatism has been refuted.They’ll conclude,with some justice,that their brand of conservatism hasn’t been tried.

Cruz has been making this argument for months. In speeches, debates,interviews,and ads,he has painted Trump as a donor to liberals,a socialist on health care,and a squish on Planned Parenthood. Presumably,Cruz will hammer these differences all the way to the convention.And then,if Trump loses the election,Cruz will take up where he left off.He’ll raise more money,build out his field organization,and lock up support in the Tea Party and on the religious right.He’ll tell hardline Republican audiences what they want to hear:that Trump lost because he wasn’t a “consistent conservative.”..

[SNIP]

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2020; 2020elections; conservatives; cruz; economy; elections; gope; gopedirtytricks; keephopealive; lol; nationalsecurity; teaparty; trump
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To: 9YearLurker
Bringing in another state is usually overemphasized and not as important as contributing to a compelling and complementary ticket overall.

You've made some, in my mind, compelling arguments in favor of a Trump/Cruz ticket ... the only real question is whether that is possible now. Lots of bad blood between them ...

61 posted on 03/19/2016 5:43:10 AM PDT by dartuser
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To: stockpirate

The latest Real Clear Politics NATIONAL poll for Republican Presidential Nomination shows...

A poll conducted (3/3-3/6), before Rubio dropped out had Trump 30%, Cruz 27%, and Kasich 22%.

The latest poll, conducted 3/16-3/17 — AFTER Rubio dropped out has Trump 43%, Cruz 28%, and Kasich 21%.

Trump went up 13 points, whereas Cruz went up only 1 point and Kasich went down 1 point after Rubio dropped out.

Link to data and chart:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html


62 posted on 03/19/2016 5:58:29 AM PDT by COUNTrecount (Race Baiting...... "It's What's For Breakfast")
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To: dartuser

Yeah, I agree.

Too bad.


63 posted on 03/19/2016 6:00:08 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: irishjuggler

“And thus begins the campaign for 2020... with Ted in a very good position to take on an elderly, failed President Hillary.”

Except there will nothing left of America by then!

We either win this election or America as we know it is finished!

That *itch will pack the courts with leftists that will rewrite the constitution. You will have no rights at all, except the right to pay double taxes.

30+ million illegal illiterates with no ability read/write or speak the language will automatically be registered to vote Demonrat.

Civil war #2!


64 posted on 03/19/2016 6:02:57 AM PDT by Beagle8U
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Trump is.
He was my last resort hold my nose and vote candidate, and my posting history bears this out.

But all issues in this campaign are not of equal weight.
Just as all budget issues on a family farm are not.of equal weight.

This cycle sealing the border and confronting Islam outweigh all other considerations. Just as on a family farm meeting the mortgage payment outweighs family vacations and remodeling the kitchen and a car for the sixteen year old.

Even if you add everything else together, the primary priority in both situations outweighs everything else.


65 posted on 03/19/2016 6:07:45 AM PDT by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: 9YearLurker

“Trump draws in more moderates, independents, Reagan Democrats, those who have never voted before, blacks, Hispanics and Indians. Trump puts big Northeastern and Midwestern states in play,...”

What will Trump give all those liberals in exchange for their vote?


66 posted on 03/19/2016 6:11:00 AM PDT by Beagle8U
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To: Beagle8U

Have you not been paying attention? He hasn’t “given” them anything and they are already behind him.

Though yeah, I expect him to give him some tidbits in the general campaign—and probably disappoint me and other conservatives in a couple of issues along the way. (E.g., he’s for touchback amnesty, which I’m totally against.)


67 posted on 03/19/2016 6:16:14 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: mabelkitty
Ted is mad that everyone chose Trump over him, so he is going to continue to move middle and stay there.

Ding, Ding, Ding....we have a winner. Exactly right. He is PO'd Trump came out of nowhere and spoiled his plan.

68 posted on 03/19/2016 6:27:55 AM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject)
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To: MrEdd

“This cycle sealing the border and confronting Islam outweigh all other considerations.”

Except Trump has already walked that back, and told the NYT that he was just kidding about sealing the border.


69 posted on 03/19/2016 6:30:31 AM PDT by Beagle8U
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To: Beagle8U

What is Ted willing to concede to the likes of the Glenn Beck mentality, or the forces that pushed the GOPe into now grudgingly supporting Ted (if they must) and brought on Neil S&L Bush to run the whole doggone campaign finances?


70 posted on 03/19/2016 6:30:56 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: proudpapa

Yes, because Romney’s word carried so much weight in his attacks prior to Super Tuesday 2.0...how did that work out?


71 posted on 03/19/2016 6:32:41 AM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject)
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To: ripnbang

Cruz is a spoiler. Accept that. Romney’s support is solely to make it ok for his liberal colleagues to cast a ballot for Cruz as opposed to Kasich. Nothing more. Romney’s endorsement is their permission slip to help spoil the Trump candidacy. He knows Kasich cannot siphon votes. So it is Cruz. It is so transparent I can’t believe anyone would actually not see this. Especially Cruz who should drop out immediately to thwart the bosses conspiracy.


72 posted on 03/19/2016 6:38:18 AM PDT by anton
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To: Gaffer

The GOP is backing Cruz now because they have no choice.

The choice is either back Cruz or Hillary wins. There is no other option.


73 posted on 03/19/2016 6:39:13 AM PDT by Beagle8U
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To: COUNTrecount
A poll conducted (3/3-3/6), before Rubio dropped out had Trump 30%, Cruz 27%, and Kasich 22%.

I know what you're trying to say here, that Trump actually went up after Rubio dropped, but that 3/3 poll was a WSJ/NBC poll that consistently has been, and continues to be, low for Trump and high for eveyone including the Tasty Cake man. It was also coupled with a couple of other polls that had Trump up +9 and +15 during that same date range. somewhere in between was more accurate. We have to be careful how we use polls to support Trump especially since we're so critical how they're used to ding him.

74 posted on 03/19/2016 6:39:16 AM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject)
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To: anton

If Cruz was truly the principled conservative, he would put principle over pride and gracefully bow out and live to fight another day. Maybe not now especially since he may do well in Utah, but if he doesn’t, and gets beat soundly in AZ he should. The math just doesn’t work for him going forward to the northeast.


75 posted on 03/19/2016 6:43:42 AM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject)
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To: Beagle8U

Just like the OP of this thread. You answer a question with another question and when that gets returned with a question to you, you revert to the “universal axiom” that “Ted is the only one that can beat Hillary.” You can’t set up your fantasy football league by taking out the one you don’t like ‘just because’ and then say “my candidate is the only one that can win.”

Anybody can pull a wish out of their but and call it a rose, but that does not a rose make.


76 posted on 03/19/2016 6:44:08 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Gaffer

Can you post ANY poll that Trump beats Hillary?


77 posted on 03/19/2016 6:56:36 AM PDT by Beagle8U
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To: Beagle8U

See what I mean? No answer to my original question to you. Unequivocally evasive and unresponsive with some media infused and contrived push polls meant to destroy Trump and elevate Cruz, who could only win Texas out of the “Solid South” he so depended on.

As a reminder, the original question to you was, “What is Ted willing to concede to the likes of the Glenn Beck mentality, or the forces that pushed the GOPe into now grudgingly supporting Ted (if they must) and brought on Neil S&L Bush to run the whole doggone campaign finances?”


78 posted on 03/19/2016 7:00:44 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: piasa

We’d still be using horse and buggy with your attitude.


79 posted on 03/19/2016 7:04:50 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: ripnbang
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted - via landline and cell phone interviews - among 397 Republican primary voters from March 3-6, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9 percentage points. The rest of the NBC/WSJ poll will be released Wednesday morning

The WSJ and Fox news is owned by Murdoch, who has an agenda against Trump big time.This poll has always been an outlier.

Three Strikes – Third Time This Campaign Season NBC/WSJ Caught Promoting “Agenda Polls”

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/17/three-strikes-third-time-this-campaign-season-nbcwsj-caught-promoting-agenda-polls/

80 posted on 03/19/2016 7:06:04 AM PDT by COUNTrecount (Race Baiting...... "It's What's For Breakfast")
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