Posted on 03/18/2016 12:44:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The new Emerson College poll for New York provides some good news for Donald Trump — for now, anyway. With more than five weeks to go before the Empire State’s primary, Trump trounces Ted Cruz for the state’s 95 delegates by more than 50 points, 64/12, with John Kasich only getting 1% despite his big win in Ohio. That puts Trump well over the 50% threshold for winner-take-all allocation, while leaving Cruz and Kasich well below the 20% threshold for any allocation in the event of a plurality. Trump, the home-state candidate, also gets the most favorable marks in the GOP field, +48 against Cruz’ +8 and Kasich’s +20. The small sample of 298 likely Republican primary voters leaves the margin of error at 5.6%, but with gaps like these, the MoE is an afterthought.
However, when it comes to the general election, the news looks worse — much worse, in fact, for the argument that Trump will expand the GOP map:
Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
The MoE on the full survey is a much more reasonable 3.5% on a sample of 768 likely general-election voters, so these numbers are a little more solid. The only bright spot for Trump in the general-election numbers is that Cruz does worse at 61/30, but that’s a cold comfort in a general election, where Electoral College votes are winner-take-all.
Furthermore, these numbers are almost exactly the same as two successive Siena polls got in the past two months, surveys with even larger sample sizes and a traditional live-call model. In February, the race was 57/32 Clinton, and two weeks ago Siena had it at 57/34. That’s close to the margin by which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 (62/36). All three polls show no upside for Republicans by having Trump on the ticket, not even with New York being his home state and the base of his business operations. Clinton may be underperforming Obama, but not by much.
Of course, the general election is still seven-plus months away, but that would only matter if New Yorkers hadn’t gotten to know Donald Trump well (or Hillary Clinton, for that matter) before now. Trump’s ubiquitous in New York, though, and voters there know him better than voters in most other states, with the possible exception of Florida — where Trump actually looks more competitive, but where Republicans have been much more competitive in presidential elections anyway. Romney only lost Florida by a percentage point, getting to 49%, while the RCP average of head-to-head polling there has Trump down 2.2 points … and Trump going no higher than 47% in any of them.
Given this lack of change over Romney’s 2012 performance in New York, where’s the evidence that Trump expands the map? If at this point Trump can’t get to 40% in his home state in head-to-head polling, what makes anyone think that Trump could beat Hillary in California or Massachusetts, or even in Pennsylvania or Michigan? The theory that Trump expands the Republican general-election map and provides a new path to 270 has no evidence supporting it. Right now, it looks like pure fantasy.
Even Sanders beats Trump.
LOL
April 19th - things to watch out for are the margins Trump runs up in the blue collar counties around New York City and upstate.
If they don’t exceed what Hillary is going to get in New York City, he has no chance there in November.
Why cant leftists just wait to inherit the eternal hell they so crave instead of bringing it up to the topside of the earth?
“Do you think conservatives saying that Trump is hitler has any effect on his numbers?”
Right. It’s the conservatives fault because they won’t get behind this left wing, 9/11 truther for President.
Trump is just a horrible candidate and man.
No republican was ever going to win NY in the general. That’s why states like Ohio and Florida are considered battleground states. New York is behind enemy lines.
“Trump might be able to do it”
I won’t hold my breath.
Once it is pointed out that Hillary is a carpetbagger and Trump is a true New Yorker he will probably win.
This is really nothing new - national polls have been saying this from the moment the race began. But the Trumpeters are positive they are all rigged ... so since they are always right there is nothing to worry about ... except Bernie who consistently beats DJT.
ZOUNDS! I thought a Republican was going to win New York this time, for sure!
*crude gesture*
Tell me about it, he just started today on her saying I quote:
“Hillary Clinton has been involved in corruption for most of her professional life!”
Let’s hear her answer to that, and if she is stupid enough to deny, Trump will obliterate her cankle supported butt with the facts that the lame stream media has brushed under the carpet for decades. Remind the people of New York how this b*tch cared so much about New York that she had her husband pardon FALN terrorists.How she was absent 90% of the time once she was Senator, preferring instead to go on book tours and give speeches for money
The last time a Republican won NY, he was declared unelectable by the libtards and his name was Reagan.
He’ll win, you know.
It’s time to come together and accept the nominee. Ted Cruz can’t get there. The only one with the numbers to make it is Trump.
Gotta remember that NY is crawling and jam packed with foreign born and 3rd worlders. NY values of today will reject the native son and go for the leftist— sad but true.
Let’s see what happens next month.
Reagan did it in 1984. But you have to carry the counties around NYC and upstate by big margins to offset the vote coming out of NYC.
This is Trump’s chance to demonstrate he is competitive at home.
I should add Cruz has zero chance of winning NY because he can’t connect to the kind of voters he would need to win there.
Trump will fight like hades to win NY in the general. Its a tall order but the Trumpster’s the only possible Repub to even think it could be a possibility.
Additionally, Trump will use tactics that would have made Lee Atwater, the man who used the Willie Horton issue effectively against Dukakis in 1988, proud. There is a lot of negatives against Trump, but the Clintons are the dirtiest politicians in American history. He will not play by the restraints that hamstrung the elder Bush in 1992 after Atwater's death, as well as losers Dole, McCain, and Romney. Trump will use his resources for attorneys, poll watchers, and security men to thwart the usual Election Day dirty tricks the Democrats have used effectively for a very long time. Social media and traditional TV, radio, and Internet advertising have proven very ineffective. Ask Jeb Bush and the Never Trump crowd about this. Protecting the election process from the usual Democrat dirty tricks is money far better expended.
We may be at a point with regard to the old electoral maps as occurred with old European boundary maps when Napoleon began his European conquests.
I guess all of those record breaking primary voters doesn't fit their "theory"
After Trump becomes the nominee will you continue to try to sway people against him?
“It’s time to come together and accept the nominee. Ted Cruz can’t get there. The only one with the numbers to make it is Trump.”
No! Never!
I ain’t gonna do it.
Our country is toast, either way.
I’d say that unlike previous years, the Dems will have to spend national campaign money in NYS. That’s a good trend for our side.
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