Considering Trump has 65% to Cruz’s 12%, how can anyone say Cruz can beat Hillary???
It's just another lie...
Posted on 03/18/2016 12:44:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The new Emerson College poll for New York provides some good news for Donald Trump — for now, anyway. With more than five weeks to go before the Empire State’s primary, Trump trounces Ted Cruz for the state’s 95 delegates by more than 50 points, 64/12, with John Kasich only getting 1% despite his big win in Ohio. That puts Trump well over the 50% threshold for winner-take-all allocation, while leaving Cruz and Kasich well below the 20% threshold for any allocation in the event of a plurality. Trump, the home-state candidate, also gets the most favorable marks in the GOP field, +48 against Cruz’ +8 and Kasich’s +20. The small sample of 298 likely Republican primary voters leaves the margin of error at 5.6%, but with gaps like these, the MoE is an afterthought.
However, when it comes to the general election, the news looks worse — much worse, in fact, for the argument that Trump will expand the GOP map:
Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
The MoE on the full survey is a much more reasonable 3.5% on a sample of 768 likely general-election voters, so these numbers are a little more solid. The only bright spot for Trump in the general-election numbers is that Cruz does worse at 61/30, but that’s a cold comfort in a general election, where Electoral College votes are winner-take-all.
Furthermore, these numbers are almost exactly the same as two successive Siena polls got in the past two months, surveys with even larger sample sizes and a traditional live-call model. In February, the race was 57/32 Clinton, and two weeks ago Siena had it at 57/34. That’s close to the margin by which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 (62/36). All three polls show no upside for Republicans by having Trump on the ticket, not even with New York being his home state and the base of his business operations. Clinton may be underperforming Obama, but not by much.
Of course, the general election is still seven-plus months away, but that would only matter if New Yorkers hadn’t gotten to know Donald Trump well (or Hillary Clinton, for that matter) before now. Trump’s ubiquitous in New York, though, and voters there know him better than voters in most other states, with the possible exception of Florida — where Trump actually looks more competitive, but where Republicans have been much more competitive in presidential elections anyway. Romney only lost Florida by a percentage point, getting to 49%, while the RCP average of head-to-head polling there has Trump down 2.2 points … and Trump going no higher than 47% in any of them.
Given this lack of change over Romney’s 2012 performance in New York, where’s the evidence that Trump expands the map? If at this point Trump can’t get to 40% in his home state in head-to-head polling, what makes anyone think that Trump could beat Hillary in California or Massachusetts, or even in Pennsylvania or Michigan? The theory that Trump expands the Republican general-election map and provides a new path to 270 has no evidence supporting it. Right now, it looks like pure fantasy.
What wonders ...
Considering Trump has 65% to Cruz’s 12%, how can anyone say Cruz can beat Hillary???
Trump will close the deal in New York and beat Hillary.
In 1980, the polls at this point were all calling for an easy Carter win over that reckless warmonger Ronald Reagan too.
We are going to be SOOOO screwed, IMHO. I pray I’m wrong.
Thanks Trumpkins!
No more 2nd amendment and the entire SCOTUS is now going to be liberal.
I have to admit the Clintons were brilliant getting Donald to run.
Trump has not begun to really hit Hellry and expose her corruption and criminal activity.
The witch will be bloodied...from every orifice.
So Trump has the best chance of any Republican to win NY.
Considering Trump has 65% to Cruz’s 12%, how can anyone say Cruz can beat Hillary???
It's just another lie...
I have no great expectations whatsoever for California or Massachusetts as they would (and have) voted for a donkey's posterior so long as it had a D behind its name.
Pennsylvania or Michigan? Can't believe that Trump could do worse than Romney or McCain.
Can't say that -- it's sexist and misogynistic, dontchaknow.....
Do you think conservatives saying that Trump is hitler has any effect on his numbers?
And don’t forget!
Trump will never be tne GOP nominee.
“Considering Trump has 65% to Cruz’s 12%, how can anyone say Cruz can beat Hillary???”
No Republican is going to beat a Democrat in New York in a general election.
Got any evidence ANY OTHER Republican would poll any better?
Or do you just work for Hillary / Sanders?
LOL...yes, I know.
I spit on the fascism of Political Correctness.
Got any evidence ANY OTHER Republican would poll any better?
Or do you just work for Hillary / Sanders?
hitlery will win...thx freepers..
Trump might be able to do it but you’re right, any other Republican, it would be a lock for Hillary.
He has a couple of months to get the job done.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.