Posted on 03/17/2016 11:02:29 AM PDT by windhover
Here is "the" math "if": 1. Trump takes 53%,60% or 65% of remaining delegates from 21 states from 3/22 - 6/7; broken down by 11 Winner Take all States, with 597 delegates at stake. And: 2. 10 Proportionately Awarded states with 312 delegates.
Trump: 597 Winner Take All 312 Proportional Award
@53 @53% ---- ---- 316 Total Delegates 165 Total Delegates
316 Winner Take All 165 Proportional Award ---- 481 Total Delegates +673 Delegates Won Tru 3/15 OR: ---- 1,154 At 53% Remaining Delegates Total Delegates 597 +312 --- 909 Del. Left Winner Take All and Propor. @ 60% ---- 545 Total All Delegates +673 Won tru 3/15 ---- 1,218 Total Delegates at 60% OR: 909 Del. Left WTA/PA @65% ---- 590 Delegates left +673 Delegates won ---- 1,264 Total delegates @ 65%
I make no further judgments or prognostications except to say;an alliance of political enemies before the GOP convention would be really good insurance, no matter who you support. Even the best scenario will be close.
I have no agenda and will vote for either Trump or Cruz, and, like you, I have a preference; but this time everything is on the line. Please, for God's sake vote for one of them in the general election.
He’s delusional
______________________________
I agree. Levin told this story as if lying and cheating was a positive attribute; it turned me off enough to turn Levin off.
“I have faith that Trump will upset that good ol’ boy system - which will help restructure how the Senate operates hence forth.”
What gives you that faith? When we were working our fingers to the bone to get a Bevin victory over McConnel and upset the “good ol’ boy” system, Trump was donating to McConnell to ensure that didn’t happen.
It’s all I heard as well and I shut it off too.
If that is how he stands within his own party, I fear his appeal in the general will be narrow indeed. Especially so, since as his fight for the nomination becomes more desperate, he has no choice but to double down on his “I am the only true conservative” rhetoric, which will do little for his argument that he can defeat Hillary Clinton in the general.
True there are polls that show Cruz doing better against Clinton than Trump, but these polls are at best unreliable, and quite likely intentionally misleading . Any poll eight months away should be suspected of being a manipulation, a paid for push poll, since the pollster has little worry about being held accountable. Polls based on a hypothetical match up are historically unreliable. The famous example of Reagan and Carter in early 1980 makes the point.
I don't care if Cruz and Kasich stay in the race. In fact I encourage it if it is to push for policy positions they and their supporters feel passionate about. Even if they have no chance of winning, it could influence the eventual nominee to adopt or adjust some key positions.
But please, the time has come for Republicans to stop trashing and smearing their own front runner! He is not like Hitler or Obama or KKK. He is not inciting violence. He does not want to keep the Iran deal, destroy the 2nd amendment. He is not pro choice. He is not big government. He is not for crony capitalism. Stop aiding and abetting the left by digging up quotes or actions from his non political past that seem contrary to his political positions. Let the left do their own dirty work.
Let's not be the stupid party yet again. Go ahead campaign and vote for your own favorite candidate, but it's time for Republicans to stop trashing Donald Trump.
IMHO
Listening to a guy’s college roommate and then deciding the guy is an asshat shows that you don’t think things through very clearly. Why don’t you look at what Cruz has done as an adult, rather than listening to some guy who might have known him in college? There are too many potential reasons that guy might want you to believe that Ted Cruz is a bad guy. Politics, jealousy, anger, and a huge list of others.
bfl
Thank you. The lunacy was about to send me over the edge.
That and his college roommate is a flaming leftist, nearly a marxist. When the attacks are coming from the leftists and repeated as a fact, then I have to wonder if it is just an attack on Conservatism.
“Bush lied, people died!” Cindy Shee....oh wait, Donald Trump.
I saw that chart too. The question I had was whether they considered more than the raw numbers, and had also figured the 10 states with 312 proportionately awarded delegates, which vary greatly on how they are awarded and when. The 11 winner take all states are straight forward,but both ways of awarding delegates are subject to the uncertainty of early voting. I tried to break it out both ways, but the form I used was a disaster. I used column form for the math, but the script form recognized it only in straight line. Sorry, live and learn. Thank you for your reply.
You must have used Drudge poll only to say Trump won every debate. Heck, he even won them before they started. That is not winning the debate, that is winning the “Crash the Poll” contest.
Fair enough. I could definitely vote for him in the general election. I promote a first ballot alliance with trump to try to prevent getting rolled by the Establishment. A first ballot victory by either one, based on a fair agreement between the candidates, would stop that cold.
He can win, unless Trump’s people get mad and stay home or vote for a third party, as many on here have threatened to do.
Wait! LOL - you’re here, on FREE FREAKING REPUBLIC, quoting a FREAKING MOTHER JONES article to make a point? And you’re telling ME that I don’t think things through clearly? OMG - this is the most entertaining conversation I’ve had on this site in years. What a pathetic comeback.
Look at the guy in 111 using a Mother Jones article to make his point about Ted Cruz!
Ditto.
Being that the majority of the remaining states are winner-take-all (WTA), all that has to happen is that Kasich drops out, and every state goes 49% for Trump... and Cruz wins every delegate they have. Looking at percentages, now that the proportional states are mostly done, isn’t good prognostication. And assuming that Trump only gets 49% is not unreasonable either, since he has never topped 49.3% in ANY state (topping out at 49.3% in liberal MASS... has anyone noticed yet that his best states are the liberal states, and that cruz is taking the most conservative states? TX, OK, WY, ID, AK)
He also won the Time Mag debate, and most of the other polls.
Only if Trump people vote for him and against Hillary. Actually Trump is likely to get to the convention with 200-300 delegates more than Cruz, the way it looks now; but he will have to win over half the 11 states 597 winner take all delegates and a little more of the 10 states with 312 proportionally awarded delegates. It will be close to getting 1237 even though trump may be way ahead in delegates. An alliance based on a fair agreement between them for a first ballot victory would stop the Establishment cold. This would be a defeat for the Party hacks and could give us the momentum to put them on the run.
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