Posted on 03/09/2016 1:56:08 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Earlier today Ed Morrissey wrote about a new NBC/WSJ poll showing Donald Trump could lose to Hillary Clinton by double digits in a general election. An ABC/Washington Post poll also published today has similar findings:
Should this matchup come about, the current advantage is Clinton’s. She leads Trump by 50-41 percent in vote preference among registered voters, her widest advantage in three ABC/Post polls since September. Among all adults, including those currently not registered, Clinton’s lead swells to 54-36 percent. And the public by 59-36 percent predicts that Clinton would win — up from a 12-point gap on this question in January to 23 points today. (Some political scientists suggest that, early on, expectations outdo preferences, predictively.)
If you’re keeping track, 50-41 is actually a better result for Trump than the NBC poll which has the matchup at 51-38. Still, looking at the details it’s not hard to see why Trump is in trouble. He trails Clinton in almost every personal metric including honesty:
The big one though might be empathy. You may recall that Obama’s re-election race in 2012 became a contest between Mitt Romney the competent manager and Barack Obama the likable, empathetic President. On the question of who really cares about people “like you” Obama always had the advantage. And as it happened a major storm hitting the east coast days before the election gave Obama a chance to demonstrate that empathy for voters.
There’s a reason Hillary is touring the country saying things like, “I believe what we need in America today is more love and kindness.” That’s not a policy it’s a pose. But the important point is she’s doing it because it has frequently worked in the past and will probably work again in 2016.
Trump does a little better when it comes to policy areas, though here again he is trailing on every issue including immigration:
Now it’s certainly possible that some of the 1,000 respondents to this poll have a detailed knowledge of both Trump’s and Clinton’s positions on each one of these issues. However, I suspect it’s more likely that the majority of respondents are giving a gut response answer based on a few things they’ve heard, i.e. Trump wants to ban Muslims and deport immigrants while Hillary was Secretary of State. Those factoids become the basis of answers to questions about terrorism, immigration and international crisis. And as ABC points out, a majority of Americans don’t like some of Trump’s most discussed ideas:
Trump’s challenged, as well, by the fact that Americans by 63-33 percent oppose his suggestion to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country, and by 61-36 percent disagree with the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Those views are closer among registered voters, but still with majorities opposed, 60 and 58 percent, respectively.
The strength and boldness of these positions obviously appeals to a plurality of GOP voters, but a majority of Americans probably just see them as unkind. And in a general election, unkindness loses to the person talking however ham-handedly about “love and kindness.”
To further the point, where Trump does appear to do well is where he expresses his own version of love and kindness. Maybe you’re thinking he’s not doing that at all but you’d be wrong. When it comes to veterans, who he promises to take care of, when it comes to people who have lost jobs to outsourcing who he promises to help find jobs for again–Trump does express empathy for people and it does draw people to him. In fact, Trump’s frequent focus on trade issues and the need to do better for people struggling in a stagnant economy is probably why he is so competitive with Clinton on the economy in this poll.
This election isn’t a battle of detailed policy positions. Hillary Clinton knows that. At base, what is working (and also not working) for Trump is the same thing working for Clinton. The person elected in 2016 is probably going to be the person who is strong, competent but who really seems to care about the issues (lack of jobs, poor treatments of vets, etc.) that matter to the largest share of the electorate.
Seems to me that the number of people who voted for Hillary vs the number who voted for Trump will tell who is better positioned to win.
I seem to recall that the same pollsters told us Reagan had no chance against Carter. it was a historic election - the unions and Dems crossed over and voted for Reagan in droves.
Did you know the unions have endorsed Trump?
The “poll” assume a 52R/48D turnout, and that there is NO crossover. And they in most cases don’t control for likely voters.....so, they are worthless.
A push poll BULL$HIT poll no doubt
I laugh at that ‘Hitler’ thing, I would suppose they are meaning he’s somewhat German...
Well I’m Italian, French and English, so good luck with that...(and I’m not telling if I’m in the Mafia....lol)
For the nth time the WSJ/NBC poll has not credibility. This is a push/pull poll to get the desired outcome and for outlets like Fox News to jump all over. Their track record has been horrible.
And Trump fans really believe he will carry NY, MA, MI, WI, PA, etc. He will be luck to do as well as McCain did. Hillary will wipe the floor clean with Trump.
If I were a bettin man, and I’m not, I would bet my next years pay that theres no way Hitlary beats Trump. No effin way! It win’t even be close.
How about among likely voters? It doesn’t say.
gut response answer based on a few things they’ve heard, i.e. Trump wants to ban Muslims and deport immigrants while Hillary was Secretary of State. “
Have any of these people heard about Bhengazi?
“Trump’s challenged, as well, by the fact that Americans by 63-33 percent oppose his suggestion to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country, and by 61-36 percent disagree with the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Those views are closer among registered voters, but still with majorities opposed, 60 and 58 percent, respectively.
The strength and boldness of these positions obviously appeals to a plurality of GOP voters, but a majority of Americans probably just see them as unkind. And in a general election, unkindness loses to the person talking however ham-handedly about “love and kindness.”
I don’t believe that most citizens oppose not letting inMuslims and illegal aliens.
Clinton is a very flawed candidate. Conditions were far more favorable for her in 2008, and she lost to a first term Senator.
Now we’re in the year of the “outsider”. With all the “stuff” Clinton has been involved with, Benghazi, conflicts of interest, emails, etc, just what will she run on? Experience? Well, she will be easy for Trump to define as a crooked insider, which I’m fairly certain he will.
The truth? Any one of three of the current candidates would beat Clinton easily, outside of Rubio.
Back to polls....I find it hypocritical that Cruz and his supporters, knowing full well that a majority of polls done are not for information, but propaganda, are now citing these polls as empirical fact.
Aye, SHilllary is about to be beatin like a rented mule.
Trump is not going to lose to Clinton. He will beat her like a drum. The general election polls at this point are meaningless.
“Trump is not going to lose to Clinton. He will beat her like a drum. The general election polls at this point are meaningless.”
I agree. The media is attacking Trump 24/7, while avoiding details of Hillary’s crimes.
Good point, he sure did.
The results iPod this survey are bogus in my opinion. Even if the results are even close, I am confident in casting a vote for someone who I know will go down fighting.
MFO
iPod = this poll... Damn auto correct :(
The establishment is cementing behind Teddy because he’s their boy.
It’s a pimp and whore relationship.
Milhous came in third in Virginia. Amongst gop voters. Amd he is somehow going to beat the skank in the general?
His path to the White House is like his record of accomplishments in the senate: nonexistent.
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