Posted on 03/08/2016 5:24:01 AM PST by tatown
Hawaii · 19 delegates Last poll closes at 11:00 PM CT
Idaho · 32 delegates Last poll closes at 10:00 PM CT
Michigan · 59 delegates Last poll closes at 8:00 PM CT
Mississippi · 40 delegates Last poll closes at 7:00 PM CT
And whether modern lawyers like his legal eligibility or not, I don’t like installing what would be America’s first foreign born president with dual citizenship.
Thought she was going to burst into tears, it was oh wow, is she really this invested in the political insiders, a.k.a. jebrio & ted bush?
That’s pretty important. I read somewhere that as of now Cruz had 14 and Trump had 10, leaving 8 to be allocated.
If Cruz picks up just two...they ALL go to him.
Right?
I wonder where they will end up?
Trump has roughly 450 delegates, Cruz has 350, Boobio has 150 and Kasickness has 20.
Trump has a nice lead going into next week.
He ran as one....people believed it...
He was a lot like trump in that respect. He was a New Yorker, Hoover considered himself a New Yorker as well. You see the commonality.
You must also see that politics is not the problem in the US. The wrong politics is.
Electing someone devoid of politics is not a fix, it’s a huge risk when the idea is to go the opposite direction that Obama has pointed us.
IMO, Trump is just another NYC democrat. it matters not what party label he is wearing at the time as it is just a emblem of political necessity to them.
It’s not that way with Cruz.. he is a Conservative. of that there can be no doubt.
Im going to call this early unless the numbers im looking at wrong.
But i project Ted cruz winning idaho. 8-10 margin
The worse Rubio does the better Cruz does.
And the better Cruz does the more likely a brokered convention.
Either way the GOPe wins.
Yeah, looks like you are right. Too good to be true, I guess. Greepapers really needs to correct that. But I’ll bet I gave some Trump supporters a heart attack...
It still looks like Cruz and Trump will end up pretty close on delegates for the night. Assuming nothing changes in Idaho, right now Trump would have 63 delegates and Cruz 51. I assume Cruz will get more delegates than Trump in Hawaii, so there will probably be a difference of less than 10 delegates for the day by the time the night is over.
I also had calculated that Trump needed to get between 55-60% of the delegates to keep on track to win 1237. That would be between 82-90 delegates. Looks like he will be well short of that. Of course if he wins Florida and/or Ohio next week, he can make up the difference.
I think greenpapers is off here.
This is the actual language from the Idaho Rules for the convention. (changed from 2014 to 2015 after Idaho went from a caucus to a primary)
http://s3.amazonaws.com/cdn.instabuildsites.com/uploads/files/a6d82db0cbd8339a8782b50c111bf30f.pdf
Article VI, Section 3(b) and (c) are relevant here.
(b) In order for a candidate to qualify for an apportionment of delegates, a candidate must receive at least twenty percent (20%), before rounding, of the total vote cast for all candidates in the Republican presidential primary. If a candidate fails to garner twenty percent (20%) of the total vote, the candidate does not qualify for an apportionment of
delegates, and delegates that would be pledged to such a candidate will be apportioned proportionally among candidates who clear the twenty percent (20%) threshold. Provided however, if no candidate clears the twenty percent (20%) threshold, the provisions of this subsection shall not be in effect, and delegates shall be apportioned proportionally.
(c) If any candidate receives more than fifty percent (50%) of the total vote cast for all candidates in the Republican presidential primary, all delegates available to Idaho under the Rules of the Republican National Committee shall be apportioned to that candidate.
Looks like Trump turned his speed bump into a launching ramp.
Yes, I went back to the original rules, and you are right.
Yup. ;-)
If Trump wins FL, OH and IL, you’re looking at the GOP nominee.
With those wins, the race is over. Someone would have to win one or more of those states to deny Trump a majority of the delegates.
I don’t see No 2, 3 or 4 being able to stop his momentum.
They have failed at so far now.
Here's a literal cut-and-paste, together with the link.
15 (c) If any candidate receives more than fifty percent (50%) of the total vote cast for all
16 candidates in the Republican presidential primary, all delegates available to Idaho under the
17 Rules of the Republican National Committee shall be apportioned to that candidate.
18
19 Section 4: (a) If a candidate receives more than fifty percent (50%) of the vote in the
20 Republican presidential primary, the candidate is entitled to have eighty percent (80%) of all
21 the delegates and alternates apportioned to Idaho selected from their lists of delegates and
22 alternates provided to the Chairman. If the candidate’s list of delegates or list of alternates
23 does not include a sufficient number of names to fill each slot allocated to the candidate, the
24 unfilled delegate or alternate slots will be filled at the State Party Convention.
So it's not 50% of the delegates, like you lied. It's 50% of the votes.
Source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/cdn.instabuildsites.com/uploads/files/460daa5777bdba8aa3eea817dc703020.pdf
It’s trending 20 Cruz, 12 Trump right now at the margin of 44-28, however, the fractional is very close. Most likely it will either be 19-13 or 20-12 for Cruz in Idaho unless there’s a large pro-trump dump somewhere or Rubio can make up the 2.5% to get to 20%.
He’s apologized several times and corrected the misinformation.
He’s still been spamming.
Yes
Hawaii polls close now.
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