Posted on 03/07/2016 5:44:56 AM PST by usafa92
EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Donald Trump continues to lead by 22 percentage points going into the Tuesday Republican Presidential Primary Election in Michigan. Trump (42%) has dropped 5 percentage points since our last poll Thursday night before the FOX News Channel debate in Detroit, but still is ahead of Ohio Governor John Kasich (19.6%) who gained 6%, Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (19.3%) who gained 5%, Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (9%) who lost 6%, and Dr. Ben Carson (4%) while 1% is voting for someone else and 5% are undecided according to the latest Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit - Michigan Poll.
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Trump poll ping.
yes-agreed.
Thanks for the ping.
Wish Trump would skip the debate....he’s the only reason the MAJORITY have even tuned in to these ambushes....and would just hold a town hall/rally, instead.
BEWARE OF the establishment pumping up Trump’s support.
V-O-T-E !
The Donald is going down and down hard.
A few days before, a couple of Louisiana polls had him up 20+ and we all know the actual result - less than 4%!
ARG is already showing movement away (net swing of 10 for Cruz and Kasich). Thankfully Rubio is not competing MI and OH and this helps make it a 3 man race in MI and 2 man in OH.
The Donald has blown his wad (literally, based on other threads this morning). The professionals and adults are taking over. Time for another season of Celebrity Apprentice.
There are ways for a skilled “debater” to turn the ambushes into advantages. I hope he is getting prepped by the likes of Newt & Chris Cristie for war (smart war) in the next debate.
He can’t just call Cruz a liar (even if true) and continue to win.
Go Trump!
Funny, I heard a few days ago that Cruz is running out of money. And he’s going to need lots of it to win any states in the foreseeable future.
Do you think the establishment is not going to go after Rev. Cruz if he poses a threat to them? Better rethink that.
THE GOP GIVETH, AND THE GOP TAKETH AWAY !
Some people think otherwise:
Doesn’t take long for the ever intelligent Cruz supporters to show up with the usual insults about Celebrity Apprentice, and “blowing his wad” etc. If you’d like to add meaningful discussion and analysis to the thread, by all means do so, but your moronic ramblings add nothing to serious analysis. The facts are that Trump is still poised to run the table here and nothing in the polling disputes that.
10% undecided.
In looking at the last Primaries/Caucuses with polling data, the four contests that had 10% or more undecided, Cruz over-performed his final poll results by 36% (Louisiana/10% Undecided), 43% (Alabama/10.3% Undecided), 69% (Oklahoma/12.1% Undecided), and 124% (Kansas/24.5% undecided).
As you can see, the more undecided, the better Cruz scores. If the pattern holds steady in Michigan, Cruz would bring in 26% of the vote. Won’t win Michigan, but if it were 42% Trump (polling has been dead on for his results), 26% for Cruz, 22% for Kasich, and 10% for Rubio, that would give out 28 Trump/17 Cruz/13 Kasich. A good win for Trump, another second place for Cruz, and once again, a fourth place for Rubio.
Trump is being bombarded by anti-Trump ads in every state. He is choosing not to respond in advertising but that may be a mistake. It is not Cruz or Kasich that are rising it is that Trump is being pounded lower by the fear of the GOPe and their lust for power and control of the electorate. If Cruz does not call out the establishment for these tactics then he is not acceptable as a candidate. He is just one of them just coming at us from a different direction but still bought and paid for by the donor class.
Little Marco doesn’t make the 15% floor to get any delegates in this poll. Trump would get a majority of the delegates.
Michigan is Winner Take All if you get 50%+ of the vote, proportional, subject to a 15% floor otherwise.
Uh... I think you meant to say Trump is a liar. lol
Since the primary is tomorrow, expect a relentless attack on Trump throughout today and tomorrow. It will be hard to put “Trump” in google and find ANYTHING positive. Romney will continue to be the establishment foil used to launch negative discussions.
There are a total of about 9 percent who will decide between now and the voting booth, the undecided and the Carson supporters, who they will support. This media onslaught is aimed at them.
That will mean Trump will win by less than 10 if my theory is correct AND if these folks vote at all.
Looks good for Trump, he should win easily! Little Marco in 4th...yikes!
Agree. I’ve noticed that Trump has continued to garner just about what the polls forecast him to. So, I would very much expect Trump to win this with about 40% of the vote, which, in a 4 way race is a definitive victory. The problem is, for now, Trump is not getting much if any of the undecided or late breaking vote. I think what is happening is there is a last ditch effort to defeat Trump and if you are not with Trump now, you are finding places to go with your support. Hence, the collapsing Rubio vote is going to Cruz as are the undecideds. This is the anyone but Trump vote. However, if Trump wins Mississippi and Michigan tomorrow, the narrative changes. Then a win in Florida, which is likely, will all but seal the nomination for him. Remember, a win by 1% in Florida is the same as a win by 20%.
Tomorrow, there are also elections in Idaho and Hawaii. Trump is up by 11 in the most recent Idaho poll, but it is about 2.5 weeks old. It is a closed primary but Independents can register day of election. I would not be surprised if Cruz wins this one. But nobody will care. It will be too late when the returns come in and Trump already will have won the biggest prizes. Likewise, Hawaii is a caucus and they are expecting 20,000 voters, double 2012. Not sure how Trump will do here. But logically speaking, Trump should have this all but wrapped after Florida next week.
I think the GOP establishment machine is now 100% devoted to blocking Trump, where as before it was mostly a wait and see attitude; wait and see what happened Super Tuesday. There are probably thousands of lawyers working around the clock as we speak organizing local, state, and federal officials in a shadow campaign. The also have the full support of the White House and Democrats. Notice what happened to the the election results after Mitt injected himself, how much they deviated from the polls. They will let Trump win where he is highly favored but they will close the margins with “surprise” votes. In other places they will hand the win to somebody else. If they do this in every primary and caucus they have calculated that they will be successful in blocking Trump from clinching the nomination. What happens next I do not know.
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