Trump poll ping.
yes-agreed.
Thanks for the ping.
Wish Trump would skip the debate....he’s the only reason the MAJORITY have even tuned in to these ambushes....and would just hold a town hall/rally, instead.
BEWARE OF the establishment pumping up Trump’s support.
V-O-T-E !
The Donald is going down and down hard.
A few days before, a couple of Louisiana polls had him up 20+ and we all know the actual result - less than 4%!
ARG is already showing movement away (net swing of 10 for Cruz and Kasich). Thankfully Rubio is not competing MI and OH and this helps make it a 3 man race in MI and 2 man in OH.
The Donald has blown his wad (literally, based on other threads this morning). The professionals and adults are taking over. Time for another season of Celebrity Apprentice.
10% undecided.
In looking at the last Primaries/Caucuses with polling data, the four contests that had 10% or more undecided, Cruz over-performed his final poll results by 36% (Louisiana/10% Undecided), 43% (Alabama/10.3% Undecided), 69% (Oklahoma/12.1% Undecided), and 124% (Kansas/24.5% undecided).
As you can see, the more undecided, the better Cruz scores. If the pattern holds steady in Michigan, Cruz would bring in 26% of the vote. Won’t win Michigan, but if it were 42% Trump (polling has been dead on for his results), 26% for Cruz, 22% for Kasich, and 10% for Rubio, that would give out 28 Trump/17 Cruz/13 Kasich. A good win for Trump, another second place for Cruz, and once again, a fourth place for Rubio.
Little Marco doesn’t make the 15% floor to get any delegates in this poll. Trump would get a majority of the delegates.
Michigan is Winner Take All if you get 50%+ of the vote, proportional, subject to a 15% floor otherwise.
Looks good for Trump, he should win easily! Little Marco in 4th...yikes!
I think the GOP establishment machine is now 100% devoted to blocking Trump, where as before it was mostly a wait and see attitude; wait and see what happened Super Tuesday. There are probably thousands of lawyers working around the clock as we speak organizing local, state, and federal officials in a shadow campaign. The also have the full support of the White House and Democrats. Notice what happened to the the election results after Mitt injected himself, how much they deviated from the polls. They will let Trump win where he is highly favored but they will close the margins with “surprise” votes. In other places they will hand the win to somebody else. If they do this in every primary and caucus they have calculated that they will be successful in blocking Trump from clinching the nomination. What happens next I do not know.
bumping
bumping
Trump needs to get poll watchers in to watch the GOP in every polling place. They are pulling dirty tricks because now all of a sudden the pre-polling and exit polling are NOT matching up as close as they should be with the actual vote. They’ve figured out they can’t beat him fairly in the vote so they’re rigging the game.
Kasich is surging.
But Marco won Puerto Rico! He's "surging," according to Fox News!
Who knows, Rubio may still get to be President one day after all, of Puerto Rico, if it ever gains independence.
Can anybody in Michigan report in on whether Trump is running ads in that state? Other than an Instagram, I have never seen a Trump ad on TV nor heard of one anywhere. I know that there is a barrage of anti-Trump ads being run and Trump needs to counter this in some way in my opinion or he'll keep losing ground.
Ted Cruz went out to Idaho on Saturday and is banking on something big there. If he breaks 50 percent, he takes all 32 delegates.
Michigan and Mississippi perhaps the best he can hope for is a split. Trump will not get a majority of delegates unless he’s in a split with just one other candidate above the 15 percent threshold.
What Hawaii will reveal late at night is a ?.
If Trump takes Ohio and all of it’s delegates, Kasich has nobody but himself to blame. He is the one who moved the primary up and made it winner take all for his own ambition.
Poll conducted March 6, 2016, and a larger than usual sample size of N = 663 compared to other polls.
This flies in the face of the Monmouth Poll that showed a narrower Trump lead. This was conducted yesterday so I’m pretty confident that Trump wins - and hopefully, handsomely.