Deace updates the electoral math

If today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida is even close to true, which has Rubio getting annihilated in his own home state of Florida in two weeks, than the Team Cruz strategy of believing they can get it down to a race between them and Trump absolutely has merit. There is simply no way Rubio could survive not winning his own home state, which is a pure winner-take-all, especially if it's a rout. If Rubio cannot show Jeb getting out of the way... can help him win even his own state, then I'm not sure what his path to the nomination is.

Of course, the exact same thing applies to Cruz in Texas on March 1st. He has to win that state.

However, if Cruz does win his own home state, the delegate math absolutely does lend itself to a strategy of him them waiting it out to see if Trump can take out Rubio in Florida. If you run the delegate numbers, which I did this morning, Cruz is far better off sweeping as many of the congressional districts in Texas as he can than winning Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee on Super Tuesday. Especially because those states are all proportional, too. So the likelihood Cruz could win enough in those states to avoid basically a three-way split in the delegates compared to winning more out of Texas is far-fethced. For example, despite Trump's rout in Nevada he only ended up with about 6 more delegates than second place.

In fact, after March 15th I have Trump winning 22 of the 31 contests on the calendar, and he's barely halfway to the 1237 necessary to win the nomination. And even if I'm wrong and Trump wins 30 of the 31 contest, sans Texas, the way the deleages could be proportionally allocated really wouldn't alter that math all that much.

If Rubio were to collapse after not winning his home state, that would effectively put Cruz opposite Trump one-on-one the rest of the way. And all the polls taken so far of Cruz vs. Trump head-to-head have Cruz winning.

So that begs an obvious question -- what is the Rubio strategy? Why are his people calling evangelical leaders and trying to get them to drop Cruz to stop Trump, when they can't even beat Trump in their own state? Why is he spending more money in Texas, a state Rubio can't win, then he's spending in Virginia, which is a state that he could?

When you're attacking rivals with the object of winning that's one thing. But when you do it with no reasonable expectation of winning that's another.

I’m a Cruz guy, but the glimmer of hope is getting weaker. Here’s how I see it:

1) Cruz Must Win Texas. Without it, he’s done.
2) Rubio Must Lose Florida, and drop out.
3) Trump has to continue to alienate huge sections of the electorate so that his margins are capped.
4) Cruz has to up his game and win some more states, as he takes all non-Trump votes.
5) Cruz goes into the convention with a medium sized minority of delegates. Trump goes in with a plurality of delegates.
6) All non-Trump delegates pledge support to Cruz.

That’s extremely unlikely, and as good a picture as I can come up with for my guy.

The fat lady is loudly warming up in the wings. If Cruz can’t take Texas, she’ll be bellowing from mid-stage on Wednesday that Trump is The Man.

I honestly wish people would stop saying ‘condition unmet’ “cruz is done”

I get the point and the condition is usually important— like winning Texas.

But here is the awkward reality.

Everyone giving up and letting Trump have the nomination would be a disaster:

1. He may well be unable to beat Hillary. He seems the least likely presently able to do so.

2. Trump may not be conservative at all. That is me being nice on this question as noted in my tagline.

3. Its absurd to pretend that the Enemedia is going to continue cake walking Trump to the Presidency. The war is coming once the elite sense they have boxed the Republicans into the Trump corner. For now, they pretend that this is fathomable.

For all these reasons, there must be a standing alternative to Trump at the convention regardless of delegate count or polling position.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think Cruz can beat Trump on delegates, but there is NO circumstance where I say “its over for Cruz” He is the best alternative to Trump— period.

That alternative must be available in Cleveland. It is imperative for any seriously conservative individual.

I would not hold my breath on any major comeback for Cruz or Rubio. Is it statistically possible still? Yes, is it likely? Not really.

TX is the only state in which someone other than Trump has polled a lead where the polls aren’t ancient, and there the lead ranges from close to a blowout for Cruz... reality is its probably somewhere in between. So lets just play Cruz wins TX, and wins enough Congressional Districts to trigger a Winner Take All there, (he won’t get 50% of the vote), so winning more than 50% of the districts is his only way to get the WTA trigger. This would give him 155 delegates for Texas.... Trump on the otherhand has 99 delegates coming from FL a true winner take all with no trigger a week later... and will win the majority of proportionally distributed votes from the other states voting on 3/1.

Trump is currently at 82 Delegates, and Cruz has 17 and Rubio has 16.

Cruz winning TX 100% puts him at 172, not bad, slightly double Trumps current total, but there are about 375 other delegates that will be proportionally allocated and a few of those states have WTA triggers in them as well... but lets just play devils advocate and stick completely proportional for all of them.. If they breakdown is roubly 40 to 20 to 20 on average elsewhere, with about 10 each for Kasich and Carson, That’s 155 delegates for Trump and 77 delegates each for Cruz and Rubio.

So, with those assumptions in place, Cruz is within a few delegates of Trump, but, what then? DO you think Rubio is going to leave? I doubt it... I can’t see anyone leaving before the 15 other than perhaps Carson.... So What states after 3/1 suddenly find themselves drastically changing their outcomes due to Cruz winning his home state? I don’t see any.

Say Cruz does gain a few points now that he wins, where are they coming from? Trump? Cruz? both? Lets assume he goes up a few points and they all come from Trump, Trump still pretty much runs the table between 3/1 and 3/15, and FL he’s going to be the WTA of 99 delegates, along with a growing proportion.... So his lead grows again, probably to more than double of Cruz and Rubio if not triple by 3/15.

So when does Rubio or Cruz make it up? Trump is the perceived front runner, and success breeds success, so what triggering event changes the race? Rubio or Cruz drops out... okay, so now you are down to 2 players... assuming at that point that the remaining Non Trump player is guaranteed the wins going forward is a very very bad assumption to make.

Yes it is still statistically possible someone else could win the nomination, and yes in a 2 player race one player getting over 50% to trigger the WTA allocation is simpler and certainly allows someone to make up ground... Rubio and Cruz combined are really not consistently 40% of the divided field, and represent separate wings of the party, so its certainly no guarantee that if one pulls out the other is going to find themselves defacto in the drivers seat.

It ain’t over, but if Trump is sitting pretty on 3/15, which right now it looks pretty strongly that he will be, and honestly I don’t see it dropping to a 2 man race before then, at the earliest, the path for another person to beat him is very very very narrow.

Time will tell... I just don’t see how Cruz pivots an expected win in TX into “Now vote for me” when his pitch hasn’t worked before. Rubio has yet to win any state, as long as he’s got money am hard pressed to believe he’ll drop out... Frankly I think Kasich is just in the race at this point to give the GOPE a backup should Rubio’s glass jaw get punched again.

We will know soon enough how this will all play out... politics is always crazy, so who knows exactly what will happen, but right now, the idea Cruz can pivot to a win, after a home state win, and losses everywhere else except IA comes across as a very very long shot indeed.

False.

Any Trump supporter is the champion of delusion. Trump is allowed to lie and change his opinions week to week or paragraph to paragraph and his followers simply ad hominem anyone who notices and challenges them.

I don’t trust that pathology for the long hall.

Cruz beat Trump in Iowa and I think he is the most likely to pull off future wins against Trump. That is why all your ad hominems are directed at Cruz and not Carson and Rubio.

Weeks ago when Carson was #2, your crew and leader did the same thing— depicting Carson as a deranged lunatic.

Donald Trump hates conservatives more than any other group of politicians. Trump likes Hillary Clinton much more than Ted Cruz. You and many other Trump supporters prove that everyday here at FR.

The idea of being a gracious winner is completely at odds with the psychology of Trump and the vocal supporters.

I am not fooled.

As I said before, if trump some how won every single delegate, i would still want an alternative to Trump at the convention. Being conservative has not been completely outlawed or crushed under eminent domain here so i will speak my peace on the matter.

You could defend the merits of your candidate but like your candidate, you make personal attacks rather than substantive analysis.

That is your loss and potentially our nation’s loss.

Thanks for your comments. I agree with your take on things.

You alerted me to the 82 instead of 81 delegates for Trump too. Thanks.

It is an extreme long shot now. Trump has been hit with just about every scandal known to man. It hasn’t hurt him.

Folks can lay that off to an “adoring fan” factor if they like, but folks are this angry about the usual fools in Washington. They see a trashing of Trump to be little more than an establishment last ditch effort to destroy change.

Nobody is falling for that again.

It takes a strong man to do it. Trump voices enough of our values to get our support, and everyone will simply have to deal with it.

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