So I have averaged five of the major polls in Texas over the last two days. I have found that such a analysis gives a better picture of things.
Here is what that says:
Cruz up over nine points in Texas.
Posted on 02/24/2016 10:02:58 PM PST by drewh
Kasich 9% Carson 4%. Hillary over Bernie 56-40% in the Feb 24 poll
Polls are crazy shiite— some have Cruz trouncing Trump and others have them neck and neck. We shall see what we shall see.
Texas will be interesting considering this is a state which brought us 1-LBJ and not one, but 2-Bush’s and I believe they just elected yet another Bush down there for some token insider government position. It’s almost as if the establishment insiders have a lock on the state.
We’ll see what happens.
I've been feeling that it's already over but Limbaugh just pointed out that Reagan lost his first 6 primaries before he went on to win.
Of course it was planned. Trump is a political prodigy. He is running for elective office for the first time and he has outsmarted them all. He is getting better as he goes along.
So I have averaged five of the major polls in Texas over the last two days. I have found that such a analysis gives a better picture of things.
Here is what that says:
Cruz up over nine points in Texas.
Thanks, great info.
Cruz = Wicked Witch of the West. “I’m melting” in that squeakly little twerp voice.
Nice graphs - I think you’ll end up being close.. I’ll have to remember to come back and look.
I just heard that, too (two-hour delay).
Then, only a few seconds later, he said Cruz and Rubio must win their home states.
And just now, he mentioned this was in 1976, not 1980. He battled Ford all the way to the convention. But, as we all know, Ford got the nomination.
So, never mind.
Regardless, if Cruz loses TX, he's done. (Same goes for Rubio and FL.)
I'm thinking they are already gone and it's just a formality.
Not so fast. When Cruz wins TX, as most polls say he will, it's far from over.
Okay, this is a bit of a mea culpa.
If today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida is even close to true, which has Rubio getting annihilated in his own home state of Florida in two weeks, than the Team Cruz strategy of believing they can get it down to a race between them and Trump absolutely has merit. There is simply no way Rubio could survive not winning his own home state, which is a pure winner-take-all, especially if it's a rout. If Rubio cannot show Jeb getting out of the way can help him win even his own state, then I'm not sure what his path to the nomination is.
Of course, the exact same thing applies to Cruz in Texas on March 1st. He has to win that state.
However, if Cruz does win his own home state, the delegate math absolutely does lend itself to a strategy of him them waiting it out to see if Trump can take out Rubio in Florida. If you run the delegate numbers, which I did this morning, Cruz is far better off sweeping as many of the congressional districts in Texas as he can than winning Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee on Super Tuesday. Especially because those states are all proportional, too. So the likelihood Cruz could win enough in those states to avoid basically a three-way split in the delegates compared to winning more out of Texas is far-fethced. For example, despite Trump's rout in Nevada he only ended up with about 6 more delegates than second place.
In fact, after March 15th I have Trump winning 22 of the 31 contests on the calendar, and he's barely halfway to the 1237 necessary to win the nomination. And even if I'm wrong and Trump wins 30 of the 31 contests, sans Texas, the way the deleages could be proportionally allocated really wouldn't alter that math all that much.
If Rubio were to collapse after not winning his home state, that would effectively put Cruz opposite Trump one-on-one the rest of the way. And all the polls taken so far of Cruz vs. Trump head-to-head have Cruz winning.
So that begs an obvious question -- what is the Rubio strategy? Why are his people calling evangelical leaders and trying to get them to drop Cruz to stop Trump, when they can't even beat Trump in their own state? Why is he spending more money in Texas, a state Rubio can't win, then he's spending in Virginia, which is a state that he could?
When you're attacking rivals with the object of winning that's one thing. But when you do it with no reasonable expectation of winning that's another.
Well...those are only the average of the lasts five polls.
I will do it again on Monday to see if it changes.
El Pared - I like that.
You need to go to the RCP state primary page. You left out the Emerson poll (wonder why?). It has CRuz 29 and Trump 29.
Ugh... Trump 28
Jefe!
“Nice graphs - I think you’ll end up being close.. I’ll have to remember to come back and look.”
It will be interesting to see which one was the most accurate.
Kellyanne Conway is whistling past the graveyard. What a ditz.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.