Posted on 02/21/2016 12:18:59 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
LAS VEGAS - It's going to be a long ride.
Rather than anointing a presumptive nominee, the early voting states have narrowed the Republican primary to a three-man race heading into Tuesday's Nevada Caucuses and the 12-state delegate bonanza on March 1.
Donald Trump leads nationally and in most state polls, but both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are armed with the rationales and the resources to stay in the race through at least March, if not right up to the Republican National Convention in July.
Despite Trump's polling lead, there are significant obstacles to his running away with the nomination in the coming weeks. With Rubio buoyed by momentum, Nevada's organizing-heavy caucuses set for Tuesday, and the first half of March weighted toward states where Cruz is poised to finish strongly, there is little space for Trump to translate that lead into a certain nomination in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Rubio's strength makes him the likely standard-bearer of center-right Republicans and their deep-pocketed backers and can only increase the pressure for Jeb Bush to bow out of the race - freeing resources for the Florida senator and cleaning up a cluttered field before the real action begins.
"Until it clears out, it's an advantage for Trump," said one person close to the New York billionaire.
The results so far have only been a prelude. Including South Carolina, only 4 percent of delegates have been awarded up to this point, and Trump has won only a plurality. Heading into Saturday, Trump had won 17 of the 53 delegates awarded in Iowa and New Hampshire, less than a third. Cruz had won 11 and Rubio 10.
On paper, the next three weeks of contests favor Cruz, a feature of the schedule that will prevent Rubio from totally capitalizing on any momentum he gains coming out of South Carolina.
Tuesday's caucuses in Nevada will be only a blip - bringing the delegates awarded to 5 percent of the total - but one that could deprive Trump of momentum if he is out-organized here as he was in the first caucus state, Iowa.
"Nevada is basically a wash. Nobody will care about it unless Trump doesn't win," said a Trump campaign insider.
On March 1, 12 states with a combined total of 588 delegates - nearly a third of the total - will get their turn. Delegate totals on that day are titled heavily towards the six Southern states, where Cruz and the outside groups supporting him are better organized than their rivals. That includes March 1's biggest prize, Cruz's home state of Texas, which awards 152 delegates. Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana, three Cruz-friendly states with a combined 132 delegates to award, will vote four days later on March 5.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15.
Despite favorable conditions in South Carolina - his campaign's director there is a former majority leader of the state's House of Representatives and for much of the race he enjoyed 20-point polling leads there - Trump did not achieve the blowout victory that he did in New Hampshire.
Trump also under-performed in Iowa, the only caucus state to have voted so far.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15, by which point more than 40 percent of delegates will have already been awarded. Both Ohio, with its 63 delegates and Florida with its 99 will vote that day - and the prospect of John Kasich hanging in long enough to capture his home state will only further muddle the delegate math.
Deeper into the map, major prizes like 95-delegate New York, which votes on April 19, and 172-delegate California, which votes on the last day of primary contests on June 7, will award delegates by congressional district.
“I can see Rubio getting the nomination.”.....
Along with the numerous “Best Salesman Of The Month” awards for selling all those used cars and the Florida swamplands?
We DO NOT want more “politics as usual” with Rubio.
Then I guess open borders and millions of new illegals becoming citizens is OK with you? I’m a Cruz supporter also, but I’ll take Trump over Rubio because of immigration. Trump also has a better tax plan.
Just as much proof as there is for Cruz or anyone else (who hasn't been pushed through the grater at the bottom).
Biased to those Cruz called the little Cruzer losers.
“If a real conservative runs he will win. “
He won last night. No need to wait.
P.S. For Politico, math is hard.
Yes, the South is Cruz-friendly, just as SC was supposed to be tailor made for Cruz with its 75 percent Evangelical voters. Cruz didn’t win a single county, and gained 0 delegates. Rubio only won 2 counties, and got 0 delegates. Trump has big leads in all the polls in 10 of the 12 Super Tuesday states, plus a big lead in NV as well. Cruz has small leads in TX and AR, but those polls were taken before NH and SC, so we’ll have to see what newer polls say. I predict that the bandwagon effect will kick in after Trump wins another double digit victory in Nevada, and that he’ll easily win at least 10 of the Super Tuesday states, maybe even all 12.
And you know all after 37 days on the site. You are headed to the Moon like Ralph Cramden used to say.
Well it sounds like anyone with an once of sense would not want Cruz as the candidate as his appeal is to narrow.
You'll have to forgive him. He's playing at being God's Prosecutor and all that.
Not to mention he was born in Canada, but let that go, his appeal is too narrow.
Also Politico EU is no fan of Trump especially England. This is where the article hails from. Not worth my time.
Well, if he asks three times... :)
A conservative is running. He just won NH and SC.
So sad your guys are getting their butts whipped. It’s like the Chicago Cubs with you. “Wait til next year!”
lol...talk about a blatant attempt to minimize Trump. The author managed to write the entire article without mentioning that Trump picked up 50 delegates in SC to 0 for anyone else. In a state that was NOT winner take all.
Just changing my tag line.
In TN no one has stated they are for CRUZ.
“and the border would have been sealed.’
Oh please. La Raza Rick? Facts not in evidence.
Back when I went to school Cruz damn sure was not Natural born.
Can you give a real world, concrete example of what would serve as proof that a man wants to be president? That's a serious question and not a sarcastic retort.
What a weird article. Trumps victory in SC was much more massive than NH in terms of delegates won.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.