Posted on 02/20/2016 8:55:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Today, South Carolina Republicans cast votes in the 2016 presidential primary. As expected, two things happened. First, Donald Trump wiped the floor with the competition. Second, pundits have overreacted in declaring that his second win clears him a path to the nomination. The latter is not only premature, but rabidly underestimates how the party primary system works. But in due fairness, let's address both points.
Trump continues to be underestimated
This is not a post to bash Donald Trump. In fact, as a student of elections, Trump wildly impresses me. He entered a crowded race in which Republicans had not just a number of choices, but a diverse set of good choices. The GOP had young and old, white and nonwhite, male and female, domestic policy guys and foreign policy wonks, experienced politicians and newcomers. Ben and Jerry may have endorsed Bernie Sanders, but the GOP race quickly became the Baskin Robbins of politics.
Enter Donald Trump. He surely brought something different and new to the table. But along with his success as a businessman and tremendous wealth, he also had an easily critiqued history and absolutely no political experience. Combine that with the lack of polish and decorum expected of presidential contenders, and his candidacy seemed not only easily undermined, but doomed. Everyone underestimated Trump, assuming his brash, flippant, offensive, brutally honest, and clearly genuine rhetoric would force him out of the race quickly. Nothing was further from the truth.
As time went on, he just grew more popular. Comments that would normally force a candidate from the race--and political relevance generally--seemed to propel Trump further. And that success continues. After losing a controversial race to an even more controversial Ted Cruz in Iowa, Trump went on to win in New Hampshire and again tonight in South Carolina. That success is indisputable. It is a testament to a very different candidate, who does whatever he wants, in a year where predictions and expectations are thrown out the window. Actually, somehow Mr. Trump has built a wall to combat common wisdom and he's making the political intelligentsia pay for it.
Tonight's win in South Carolina is not only impressive in itself, but it is in a state that had clear currents and moments that favored other candidates. Jeb Bush should have won South Carolina because his father and brother were successful in the state and still remain very well liked. Marco Rubio should have won South Carolina because his story is a compelling one; his foreign policy chops connect well with a defense-oriented state, and Nikki Haley, the popular Republican governor, endorsed him. Ted Cruz should have won South Carolina because the Republican electorate is deeply conservative and disproportionately evangelical Christian. Donald Trump most certainly should not have won South Carolina. He's a wealthy New York businessman with New York values, multiple divorces, a slight relationship to religion, and a history of supporting liberal causes--traits that typically don't resonate with South Carolina Republicans. Yet, despite all of the things other candidates had going for them and the myriad reasons Trump shouldn't have won, the Palmetto State picked the Donald. His message focused on fear, anger, disgust, and a desire to "Make America Great Again" touched a nerve. It's quite odd. In some ways, "Make America Great Again" is the 2016 version of "Yes, We Can." People are responding to the message not necessarily because of its substance, but it makes them feel the way they want to feel. It inspires them as the kind of alternative they want to see. Earlier this week, I drew parallels between how Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump connect with very different supporters in very similar ways. But perhaps, instead, Donald Trump is the 2016 and Republican version of Barack Obama. Trump supporters hope he can change Obama's "Hope and Change."
There is no reason on paper, by demographics, or by outward appearance Donald Trump should be successful in South Carolina, but alas, he won the primary there and marches on to Nevada and then Super Tuesday with more wind at his back than any other candidate by far. His momentum is huge.
Why Donald Trump is overestimated
Every other Republican candidate--and probably both Democratic candidates--would love to be in Donald Trump's shoes. Dominant, in control of most news cycles, Teflon to scandal and his own gaffes, connecting with should-be-out-of-reach demographic groups with ease, and trouncing the competition. Despite that, the reports of Donald Trump's coronation as the next Republican nominee are quite premature. He may well end up the GOP nominee. Yet, there are several reasons why he may not.
The GOP race remains a crowded field. There are five other candidates of varying success and even if you discount Carson (you should) and Bush (you probably should), Cruz and Rubio are serious contenders. So long as that many candidates remain in the race, it becomes difficult for Trump to amass a majority of delegates heading into Cleveland. Cruz and Rubio may not be able to beat Trump in many of the states to come, but they can be enough of a nuisance to keep him from the type of "clinch" we have seen in previous years after a handful of primaries and caucuses. That moment usually comes early (or early-ish) when it becomes clear someone will march to the convention and the race effectively ends. This year is not one of those years.
Party rules make it hard for Trump to clinch. While some states are winner-take-all in their allocation of delegates. Many are not. Many allocate strictly proportionally or function as a winner-take-all if and only if a candidate receives a supermajority (between 66 percent and 85 percent depending on the state). Trump is "winning" by pulling 30-40 percent of states' votes, making those winner-take-all-thresholds far out of reach. It also makes securing the nomination formally (winning a majority of delegates) or informally (broad support being so obvious that further competition is seen as fruitless) that much more difficult.
Party leaders don't like Donald Trump and they're scared to death of his candidacy. The GOP brass see themselves--right or not--to be in a very strong position this year. Secretary Clinton's candidacy exists in the shadow of scandals and investigations and her primary competition is a self-described socialist. They think their chances to retake the White House are quite good, but only if they have the right candidate. They believe Donald Trump is not that candidate. The Republican primary contest has "uncommitted delegates" (Democrats call them "superdelegates") who are able to cast convention votes without input from voters. There are fewer of them than Democrats have, but in a close primary contest, they may make a difference. These unpledged delegates tend to be state party leaders.
If Republicans head to Cleveland with no candidate securing a majority of delegates (every political pundit's daydream), and a brokered convention comes to fruition, the uncommitted delegates may play an outsized role. So, too, may the party brass--the baron-like establishment that Trump and his supporters rail against. It would be a risky proposition to strip the man with the most delegates from being the nominee, but the party may see it as their only avenue to beating a Democrat in November and thus make it a reality. For the GOP leadership the calculus is easy: if we nominate Trump we absolutely lose; if we give the nomination to someone else, Trump's supporters will be angry, but we at least have a chance of winning. Economists' expected value calculations make that decision a no-brainier. The politician's calculations make it more difficult.
That said, if Republican leadership have any opportunity to usurp Trump's momentum and keep him from being the 2016 Republican Party nominee, they will do it. The crowded field, the primary rules, and the preferences of many in the party mean it's a real possibility. Trump and, in a similar way, Ted Cruz have built campaigns and candidacies based on running against and explicitly spitting in the face of the party brass. They work well with angry voters, but in a brokered convention it is a death knell. A brokered convention is great news for party leaders afraid of Trump, for more mainstream candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, and for the health of the Republican Party. But at the end of the day, the almost unbelievable state of the Republican primary could be salvaged on the floor of Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena. If it takes that long, the man or woman chosen in a smoke-filled room may bask in the glow of being the Republican nominee. But the real winner in that situation will be the person Democrats select as their nominee a week later in Philadelphia. In that way, the only thing worse for the Republican Party than Donald Trump would be an establishment-led overthrow of Donald Trump.
For those making absolutist predictions based on the South Carolina results, take a deep breath. This race is nowhere near over. We have no idea who the nominee will be. The only thing Trump's unbelievable win in South Carolina tells us is that the Republican primary will continue to be an unbelievable mess...maybe even a YUGE one.
I am a social and constitutional conservative, neither of which Trump has any clue about.
Jarhead, I’m with you. After Dole, McCain and Romney, it will be a very cold day in hell before I vote for the man who praised Obama and supported his stimulus and auto bailout. Trump is a big-government, long-time Democrat.
learn more about Pryor before you spout off.
Maybe you need to learn more about Trump.
Did you support the Obama stimulus? Trump did.
Did you support the auto bailout? Trump did.
Have you been a big-time supporter of partial-birth abortion? Trump has.
I’d suggest you learn a little more about Trump, too.
They can think they rule the world but I’m hoping America will stand.
People are just going to have to deal with it. Trump has outsmarted and out campaigned them all.
Why? Because the man is brutally honest. He has his flaws, but who among us doesn’t? I don’t care about his divorces and most folks in the U.S. don’t either. What matters to me more is his relationship with his family. He has strong, smart and hardworking children. That speaks volumes to me.
Trump may not be the constitutional conservative many on this board want. The fact is, a Ted Cruz type of guy would never win the general. No way, no how.
Trump, whether you like him or not, is brutally honest. I cringe sometimes when he says things. I probably cringe from hearing too much PC crap for so long. LOL It doesn’t phase Trump. He is just saying what a lot of honest, hardworking Americans are thinking.
Illegal immigration MUST be stopped. Borders MUST be secured. Muslims MUST be stopped from entering this country. Jobs MUST be brought back to this country. The race to take business out of the U.S. continues to happen each and every day.
Trump is winning because he is saying what people all across America know and want. We have been quiet too long.
He connects with people. He’s humble enough to know he can’t do it alone. He hires smart people.
It’s ridiculous to whine and moan that he’s not ‘conservative’ enough. He is the only one diverse enough to beat the Hildabeast. That is enough for me. If we can get Trump in this time, perhaps we can go more to the right next time. It will take time to fix this mess......
Agreed, sick of these people constantly trashing our parties front runner.
All I pointed out is, not voting for Trump in the general is choosing Hillary to pack the court. A simple fact. Meanwhile Trump has Jeff Sessions advising him on court picks. That’s why Pryor - a fierce conservative and friend of Sessions - was mentioned by Trump
I have not gotten to the 'entertainment' stage yet... After all the dollars of the packer donors were spent, (talk about burning cash) and the push polls, and that 'mean' Trump debate.. I figured Trump would be lucky to come out with his head still attached... But to take A L L 50 is just S H O C K I N G!!!!!
We don’t need you. Be an idiot.
JoSixChip, that’s a fair observation.
We’ve been through hell around here.
My take on it is that Rubio was just ten points behind Trump tonight, and Bush who just dropped out pulled in 7.9.
If Rubio had Bush’s votes, he’d be just two points from Trump.
We can’t continue to bicker here, or we’re going to give this whole thing to Rubio.
I hope that the Cruz folks will grasp that too.
At any rate, I appreciate the alternate opinion,
I know where you are coming from.
Hopefully this settles down of the next couple of days. If it doesn’t, we in for some serious trouble.
I’ve got issues with Trump too, but love his anti-PC and his patriotism and business sense.
I’ve met Ronald Reagan in person once... Trump is no Ronald Reagan. Anyhow, bragging aside, you should know that if you sit out the election and not vote for Trump because of your pride, you’re unwittingly enabling HITLERY to win because you’re not using your vote AGAINST HITLERY.
Please don’t be a fool like those who stayed home in 2008 and 2012 rather than using their vote AGAINST absolute evil (Obama) because they were too proud to vote for a RINO. No RINO could be worse than the time we’ve spent under President Narcissus Obama. None!
Let me ask you this: Are you convinced that “Trump will destroy the nation” MORE than Hitlery/Bernie??? If you think so, you need a reality check.
Again, I’ve got doubts about Trump too and I feel there’s no perfect candidate, but conservatives need to be realistic and choose either deeply evil (Hitlery/Bernie) or a somewhat flawed mostly conservative candidate.
I’m not sure I buy that. I associate conservatism with a more nuanced approach.
Now, that's a statement I can't argue with.
I think the author may have meant "Conventional wisdom", but the slip is something I find appropriate.
There is no mystery to the phenomenon.
Trump dominated the headlines and news time. For every word the other candidates (combined) got in, he got in two by being a bomb thrower.
Now, it is down to the finesse of the soft smear, allegations above the fold, refutations tomorrow, below it. Cloward Piven approach to news coverage. All masterfully executed.
I'm not sure how long that will continue to play well, but so far it has been working.
America will get the candidates it deserves.
Again, are you the site owner? If not, what’s it to you?
What you advise is supporting the ONLY Republican candidate that CANNOT beat hillary, according to RCP- (and none of them can beat sanders.)
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 47, Trump 42 Clinton +5
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton FOX News Cruz 46, Clinton 45 Cruz +1
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton FOX News Rubio 48, Clinton 44 Rubio +4
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 45, Bush 46 Bush +1
General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton FOX News Kasich 47, Clinton 44 Kasich +3
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 53, Trump 38 Sanders +15
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 44, Trump 43 Clinton +1
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Cruz 46, Clinton 43 Cruz +3
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Rubio 48, Clinton 41 Rubio +7
General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Kasich 47, Clinton 39 Kasich +8
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 43, Bush 44 Bush +1
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 48, Trump 42 Sanders +6
General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 49, Cruz 39 Sanders +10
General Election: Rubio vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 47, Rubio 41 Sanders +6
General Election: Kasich vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 45, Kasich 41 Sanders +4
General Election: Bush vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 49, Bush 39 Sanders +10
It looks like Trump has a ceiling, about 35% to 40%.
Correct....but the GOPe doesn’t really care, as long as they stay in power. Our vote and preference doesn’t mean s$it to them. Look at the laws passed against our desires... obambiecare, un mandates, treaties, etc. The constituents.....f#$k them...Thats their attitude.
It does America no good for Cruz to stand there as President being right for 8 years if nothing else happens other than he's perfectly right for 8 years.
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