Posted on 02/10/2016 2:39:04 PM PST by blam
Bob Bryan
Feburary 10,2016
The "r-word" — recession — has creeped back into the economic conversation in the US.
And though weakness in manufacturing persists and the stock market has been rocky, the argument against a recession in the US is simple: the US consumer is fine.
But what if they aren't?
According to Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James, there is a worry that a faltering stock market and a slower labor market could damage the psyche of consumers.
And without consumer spending rolling — which accounts for around two-thirds of GDP — the economy faces the risk of contraction.
"There is concern that fear of a recession could become self-fulfilling," wrote Brown in a note to clients.
"That is, consumers (fearful of losing their jobs) may save more and spend less, and businesses may be reluctant to commit to capital expenditures — and the economy slows."
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
It is my belief that this is the reason the government has been lying about how bad the economy has been since Obama took office.
They think if they tell the truth, things could get a lot worse.
when the fear is ENTIRELY justified, then it is not self fulfilling.
it is valid and based on external tangible evidence.
what a stupid title.
i know you didn’t write blam :)
i’m sure you agree. no one is spending because they’re broke!!!
Lowest employment rates in decades, factories are abandoning the country for other shores, blue collars are being replaced by illegals and white collars replaced by H1b’s and this guy is worried that someone might notice.
When all else fails....
BLAME THE MESSENGER!
You are so RIGHT!!!! We’ve haven’t had a “Recovery” at all under this administration!!! This “self-fulfilling prophecy” thing is a smoke cover and won’t work!
Things have to improve for it to become a recession.
yep.
the graphics work i did until several years ago gets the same hourly wage as it did in the early 1980s.
that’s a little ways back.
IF it exists at all here. If not, in India where garbage work is ok as long as a buck is saved.
they only get payed for up time and the 4/10 of the hourly wage.
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“According to Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James, there is a worry that a faltering stock market and a slower labor market could damage the psyche of consumers.”
When are they going to stop pretending that we’re all sitting on hordes of cash to simply discredit the Kenyan Pirate? Discretionary dollars for many people are gone...and won’t be back any time soon.
Kinda like the Media said there would a be recession everyday of GHW Bush term until they started one.
Kinda like the Media said there would a be recession everyday of GHW Bush term until they started one.
Amen!
Everything is lies these days. The government unemployment numbers are lies. The "there is no inflation" and therefore no cost of living increase for seniors is a lie. Even the current stock market value is based on lies.
Good GW Bush will be out campaigning for Jeb and see if he has a backbone while democrats blame him.
Sure it can be self fulfilling, just look at the mess we are in now! In 2006 dim-0s begged, just give us the congress so we can “CHANGE” things, and they did.
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