Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
It is true that the Real Clear Politics numbers showing Trump leading Cruz by 16 points were all taken before IA, but that also means that they were taken well before Trump’s HUGE win in NH where he got more than three times as many votes as Cruz.
Perhaps Smokin Joe doesn’t mind, but after reading the article and the entire thread down to your post, I’d like to comment.
Trump supporters have every right to be celebrate the major victory he won in NH yesterday and I suspect we all expected him to win in a big way there.
No matter which candidate FReepers favor and no matter how passionately, most of them are civil and respectful to each other and their arguments about other candidates are generally based on their logical analysis of events and actions.
However, there are a few (and so far on this thread today they’ve all been Mr. Trump’s supporters) who resort to ad hominem attacks on both candidates and FReepers, bully, disparage, and mock others for their view points, and sometimes border on the obscene.
Free Republic used to be the place I sent my high school students to learn about conservatives’ views on issues. I wouldn’t dream of doing that these days because of the tone that has become so pervasive. I recognize that only a small minority are responsible but, despite requests from other posters and Jim himself, things are getting worse, not better. That’s a sad situation for all of us.
True enough.
Define a VERY CONSERVATIVE for me? As I consider myself one. and I wouldn’t vote for Trump if you offered me money.
He is another Hillary. Or Obama. Both wanna be dictators.
Basically people like Freepers, who are going for Trump 60 percent to Cruz's 37 percent in Freeper caucuses every day.
Right that looks sick and perverted.
Sea Cruise Passengers April 14th, 1912
Circumnavigation of the Planet, March 1932
George McGovern - November 7th, 1972
Oakland Athletics - Game One - World Series 1988
right LOL he’s on tv right now lying about Trump’s healthcare stance. blatant lies that trump wants socialized medicine. Why can’t this “conservative” just state facts, truth?
I am waiting to see Ted’s nose grow longer!
Where’s his conservative record?
I think he will do better with minorities than most think. He definitely needs to do better with women and Cruz supporters. If we have a Trump candidate and Cruz supporters sit out who knows how it ends.
That’s a two way street. Trump needs to tone it down as much or more. And before the fangs, I’m a Trump supporter.
Doubt it, if Cruz plays his cards right, he can win. Having lived in both NC and SC, they are MUCH more favorable to a Cruz candidacy than New Hampshire.. sorry.
lol, great visual there!
Not sure what filter this article is using, but Trump is polling at nearly double Cruz’s numbers... And those are polls prior to the NH vote. I am sure Cruz will do better in SC than NH, but unless something dramatically shifts his way in the next 10 days, he’s going to lose SC by a roughly 2 to 1 margin.
Cruz will outperform NH, but he’s not going to double his poll numbers in 10 days, and Trump isn’t Mark Rubio, he’s not going to shoot himself in the head and lose 17 or 18 points in 10 days.
If anything Trump is likely to gain a few points in his polling numbers in SC from his victory in NH, he sure isn’t likely to lose 18 or 19 points in 10 days.
Cruz will do better in SC than he did in NH, but doubling his numbers in 10 days, while at the same time halfing Trumps? Not with ads with kids playing with dolls.. that’s for sure.
Hey, he’s my #2. I just don’t think he can get real traction. :)
Lying about Trump is just going to turn more people toward him...Trump is NOT for single payer healthcare...He is however for everyone having the ability to get the healthcare they need to stay alive...Apparently your position is different...What do you propose happens to people who can not afford the hospital when they need it???
I think you are way out of touch with reality...The moderate and liberal Republicans are chasing after Bush and Rubio and Kasich...
The Democrats Trump is pulling in are the conservative and pro-America Democrats...And yah, there's a lot of them...
Cruz could not possibly win without those Democrats...So you know what that means??? Cruz can not possibly win...
Cruz is a Republican...He wants to fix the Republican Party...Trump is a conservative citizen...He doesn't care much about either Party...He wants to fix America...That's the difference between every candidate running and Trump...
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