Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
RCP has Trump up big in South Carolina
Oh hmmm.
I didn’t know that. I was just going off of what I saw on the news earlier this evening.
TYVM for the heads up.
Check the graphic in Post #89.
At the moment, the NH vote count is frozen at 92%,
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/new-hampshire
If the RNC can block Trump, they will surely block Cruz.
I agree Carolina is Cruz country, the people in both NC and SC (though less in NC because of NE migration) have the kind of mindset and beliefs that match up well with the Cruz campaign. Played smartly, I expect Cruz to do very well in both.
You are confusing me. I was reading that Cruz had a secret ground plan to finish first. The Ron Paul faction would put him over the top... I must have been distracted and didn't fully understand the comments.
No, actually Cruz has been pretty handily winning those who are actively involved in the Tea Party.
Well, you’re consistent.
Just like Ted Cruz.
: )
A commonsense, consistent conservative.
Who writes this stuff, Cruz’s wife???
I'll use smaller words next time.
Your priggish nature is an insult to Cincinatus. He was unselfish, you on the other hand are complete shellfish.
Every nasty pun intended.
Suggested word list: doh, duh, umm, huh, and uhh. Lets keep it to their level of intellect.
Make sure a house plant can understand.
Trump got delegates in both Iowa and NH
If a third place win in NH and a narrow win in Iowa makes Cruz the front runner someone’s logic is off. Trump narrowly lost in Iowa and skunked all in NH
The real enemy is the DC political class. We need to remember that
And Trump still leads the delegate cout
That’s what I was gonna say ... if I knew it!
But now I know it, so thanks.
They do democrat math
Bernie beat Hillary by two to one and has been allocated two fewer delegates.
TRUMP 34% KASICH 16% CRUZ 11%
What is that writer smoking and drinking?
Iowa delegate count for Trump. 7
NH delegate count for Trump. 10
Hmmm which is larger. 10or17
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