Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
Agree and well said!
I did catch the point (which requires reading the article - generally considered bad form before commenting). Cruz is my top choice, and I agree with the points in the article, but I still don’t consider Cruz the front runner. Trump is the front runner and I’m hoping Cruz can beat him despite that. I also worry a lot about the insider (probably Jeb) staying in to the end despite mediocre results and winning a brokered convention.
Cruz will not win Tennessee bank on it
The analysis makes sense, but I don't see it being a lock for Cruz.
Hopefully the media will start to focus on Trump's history. Beck and Levin have, and Rush has been somewhat critical.
Beck lmao
I am hearing Trump has a better ground game in SC than people think. But in Super Tuesday states, Trump’s presence is “non-existent.” It will come down to Cruz’ legions vs. Trump’s gamble that mass media over so many disparate states will win the day.
I agree with your statement on Trump in the South. The Rebel South will pick the non pc candidate and that is Trump. In SC we are pro business and Trump’s business sense will win as well as his non pic talk on illegal immigration and Islam. We are very pro military,
I don’t think our strong evangelical population will play a huge roll because our relationship with God is one on one and we don’t rely on politicians to save us.
It will be Trump as the winner in SC.
NH is a very different, freakish, outlier electorate. Their definition of “very conservative” isn’t the same as Iowa or other states.
Cruz is far, far more than a social conservative. He is a brilliant, studied conservative on foreign policy, economic policy and the Constitution. He is a much more informed and reliable conservative than Trump on every issue.
Iowa: 40%, 62%
NH: 27%, 25%
SC: 36%, 65%
Cruz CRUSHED Trump amongst the evangelicals and the very conservative in Iowa. SOUTH Carolina is very much like Iowa. New Hampshire is the LEAST religious state in the country and the 5th most liberal. Perfection for Trump. South Carolina and the general SEC states are perfect for Cruz. Trump is toast.
Yes, there are no conservatives in NH, except the ones that voted for Cruz, if that helps you feel any better, Jedi :-)
Says the idiot Smoking Joe in a thread titled: "Trump dominates every demographic."
Oh, nevermind, I confused what thread I was responding in. Nevermind.
“Dirty trick” Cruz was NOT reliable on ObamaTRADE,
except for Goldman Sachs because he
and the wife were bought off SECRETLY.
Read what I said:
Cruz CRUSHED Trump amongst the evangelicals and the very conservative IN IOWA. South Carolina is just like Iowa. And it’s got vastly more conservatives and evangelicals than New Hampshire.
The moronic , illiterate Trumpbot can’t even read.
Sigh. This is getting like the sports media: yeah, Eagles lose 4 of first 6 games but they are the “ favorites.”
Up is down, right is left, dark is light and someone has a very misconstrued logic to think the winner is the loser....and that is you.
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