Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
He's only established himself as the race's social conservative.
There is no reason to think he'll fair any better than Huckabee or Santorum did, neither of which won SC.
Let's face it, what really helped you was the 2 valiums you took.
Illegal immigration and defense of the homeland.
Build the wall. Don't let the Muslims in.
He's also been very vocal about another issue that has become increasingly clear to me. The purchase of my political party by those that have the money to buy them off.
I'm reminded of those Republicans we sent to Washington in the last election. The VERY FIRST DAMN THING many of them did was to ignore their own campaign promises by voting for John Boner for Speaker. They were bought off or threatened off by people who derive their power not from us, but from the donor class.
I know, but I can feel your hurt. Your pain! I am here for you. I will hug you when others won't, after you bathe of course.
We've head that for six months....
You need to temper that assumption. Ted Cruz has been doing his homework and the necessary groundwork.
Would you prefer Jebbie?
Actually, that's a good question for all Trump supporters; are you so blinded by your rabid support for Trump against his closest competition: Cruz, that you would prefer Bush?
Cruz won’t be the nominee ... Answer the question
He won't even be considered if he keeps annoying Mr. Trump.
Cruz has a much broader base of support than either Santorum or Huckabee. We will see what happens in SC
The big question ...will Cruz endorse and support Trump or Jeb when the time comes ? Jeb is going scorched earth in SC ...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/new-hampshire-primary-2016-live-updates/2016/02/bush-plans-scorched-earth-attack-on-kasich-rubio-219058
Nonsense.
SC is not tailor made for Cruz
4 years ago the evangelicals were all for Santorum but he finished third in SC after winning Iowa.
Keep in mind that SC has open primaries.
You actually are correct about that. Cruz has hired the best professionals in the business and they have put together the most competent ground team. We will find out soon enough how much this will pay off in South Carolina. I keep hoping the insurgent candidates will call a truce and spend their political capital bashing the establishment candidates. Feuding between Trump and Cruz is extremely counter-productive at this point in the game. I apologize for making a divisive comment on your thread.
I'm supposed to answer the question of whether or not Cruz would endorse someone?
I don't represent Cruz.
I would expect, though, that he'd endorse the most conservative candidate in the race.
There.
Now, you answer the question:
Are you such a rabid Trump supporter that you would endorse Bush over Cruz because Cruz poses a greater political threat to your idol?
You can be truthful. We all know the answer anyway.
That’s true — but still if Trump doesn’t implode, I think the party regulars will find a way to block him.
However, I could easily be wrong (as I conceded in the earlier post), and Trump could turn out to be the nominee. It would be foolish to claim otherwise.
Thanks very much for your considerate and thoughtful reply. I disagree of course. :)
>Build the wall. Don’t let the Muslims in.
I don’t believe Trump is serious on this. He’s been on all sides of the issue and he hit on this one as a good sales point. I don’t think he believes it or will do it. He also emphasizes a wall “with a big door” and advocates a touchback/comeback policy. Basically amnesty.
And I think there are other and better ways that need to be done in addition to border protection. (E.g., Law: No one who entered the US illegally can ever become a citizen.)
>>The purchase of my political party by those that have the money to buy them off.
Trump brags - or at least claims - to be part of buying politicians. I don’t think this is the person who has the integrity to stop it. On the contrary, I think this is integral to his manner and method.
Thank you again for your courtesy in reply.
South Carolina has been hit hard for years by our sellout trade deals.
ADVANTAGE TRUMP!!!!!
Agreed. This is now a two man race.
“Feuding between Trump and Cruz is extremely counter-productive”
No, it isn’t.
Trump and Cruz are dividing the anti establishment vote.
After Rubio, Kasich and Christie drop out, Jeb will be competitive. Cruz will have to drop out or Jeb might get the nomination.
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