[fooman]

Pubs 135K , donk 125K

Hope that these are real voters and not crossovers.

NH could winnable for the GOP in the general.

[af_vet_1981]

I don't think they are crossover voters, not with a real Socialist and Clinton in the Democrat race. Latest is GOP 156k to Dem 134K; I would think much of that increase belongs to Trump.

The RCP average is especially telling.

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	
                                                Trump   Rubio   Kasich  Cruz    Bush   Christie Fiorina Carson Spread
RCP Average	2/4 - 2/8	--	--	31.2	14.0	13.5	11.8	11.5	5.8	4.8	2.8	Trump +17.2

1. Trump obviously outperformed his average polls.
2. Kasich significantly outperformed and Rubio significantly underperformed but combine their numbers and it is close to their joint average. Perhaps Kasich picked up Rubio's soft supporters after Christie hammered him in the debate.
3. Cruz was close to his average.
4. Bush was close to his average.
5. Christie outperformed.
6. Fiorina and Carson slightly underperformed.

[entropy12]

Trump is going to put so many blue states in play, it is going to shock republicans. No other republican running can do that. I expect Trump to receive as many crossover votes as Reagan did, if not more.

[Radix]

Despite all the Florida hype back in 2000, it was New Hampshire which carried ‘W.’

Check out the EC vote and see that if Gore took N.H. then Florida was immaterial.

N.H. has not been so good in more recent EC votes, but that year it was everything.