Was Donald Trump Really Cheated Out Of Iowa? Under no scenario does Donald Trump win Iowa.

The Federalist ^ | February 3, 2106 | David Harsanyi

[GodGunsGuts]

On Wednesday morning, two days after losing the Iowa Republican caucus to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump accused the Texas senator of stealing the election. According to Trump, Cruz’s campaign committed “fraud” by sending direct mail pieces to lapsed Republican voters and by spreading public reports that pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson might be dropping out of the race.

On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of spreading false rumors about his campaign suspending its bid for the GOP nomination. Cruz’s people had been pushing a report that originated with CNN, which reported that Carson was planning on going home to Florida after the caucus instead of traveling to New Hampshire or South Carolina.

With his poor showing and diminishing numbers, it was not outlandish to deduce from this that Carson was toying with the idea of dropping out. Turns out he wasn't. It turns out Carson only planned to briefly return home so he could grab some "fresh clothes." Part of the incident can be chalked up to the ambiguous comments coming from Carson's amateurish campaign and the other part to Cruz’s campaign doing what campaigns tend to do: push narratives and stories that help them win elections.

But unless new evidence emerges, Trump's accusations of fraud and illegality are as absurd as his calls for a new election. Moreover, even if we believed Trump's charges, under no scenario does he win Iowa.

Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016

Let’s say deception was afoot. Where is the evidence that the CNN story or the Cruz tactic changed the dynamics of the race at all? Carson's RealClearPolitics polling average was 7.7 percent-with some of the better polling putting him at 9 percent. One poll even had him at 10 percent. He finished the night with 9.3 percent of the vote. This seems right, and probably a little better than expected. Carson's numbers had taken a nosedive since peaking on Nov. 1st, and there was no evidence that a Carson surge was underway. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Even if we concede, for the sake of discussion, that Carson lost two or even three thousands voters to the rumor (which is pushing it), nothing changes. Even if Carson finished at 10 percent or 12 percent, the political outcome is the same. To believe Trump was cheated out of the race, you have to accept that Carson lost more than six thousand supporters, and all of them went to Cruz. Well, Carson pulled in a little over 17,300 votes.

In truth, it’s far more likely that any Carson defecting voters would have dispersed somewhat evenly among the other major candidates. Let's go big, though, and say Carson lost 15,000 supporters. According to a not-very-scientific NBC poll in early January, Cruz and Trump were tied as the second choice of Carson supports, at 26 percent each. Trump would have been in the same place. In a more scientific and more recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Trump was tied with Marco Rubio as second choice. Trump's favorability tracked way below that of every other candidate except Chris Christie. Considering the Rubio surge, it's far more plausible that Carson's lost votes would have gone to Rubio and pushed Trump into third place.

Now, I realize nothing is going to change the minds of Trump and his fans. Believing they were cheated out of Iowa is almost a philosophical necessity. The story helps Trump continue to latch onto to polls as unvarnished Truth and dismiss the idea that he has ever really lost at anything. But even if we believe Cruz cheated, none of the outcomes lead to a Trump victory.

[CyberAnt]

No, Cruz did not cheat Carson.

It was actually RUBIO who sent out a tweet saying Carson was leaving the race. Cruz had nothing to do with it .. it was a staffer who saw the report from CNN and surmised Carson had quit the race.

We have yet to hear an apology to Ted Cruz from Dr. Carson though ..??

[TexasFreeper2009]

Show me one retarded voter who claims to have voted for Cruz that intended to vote for Carson until they heard he had dropped out.

[Baynative]

I think some cheating was done to keep me from winning. I always win. If I don't win I don't play. I win at my casinos and I win in court.

I love court. Courts love me, even tennis courts. I build great tennis courts. Have you seen some of these women who play tennis lately? They are great, they are strong and they are fast.

You know that Chris Christie looks like he should go on a fast. Then he wouldn't have to lean on the podium to help him stand up. Or he could get a wider podium to make him look thinner. I could get him one because I make great deals. I'd get him a special podium and make the builder pay for it.

[orinoco]

Cruz cheats with a straight face. Everyone ought to keep a close eye on him going forward. Lets have a clean nomination process. Trump has a right to be angry.

[Techjock]

And is someone who calls women bimbos and menstrual on twitter. Purebred NY sleazeball, through and through.

[JohnBrowdie]

and to think that on caucus night I was wondering what trump would use to blow up the news cycle the next day.

[Vaquero]

Difference between cheating and hardball.

[catfish1957]

(What are they going to sound like when they start losing next week?)

Baloney...I have already said at least 2 or 3 times today that I expect Cruz to finish a respectable 3rd in RINO-Centric NH (Voting population much more aligned to Trump and Rubio). I have even sent pre-congratulations to the effect to Trump supportes.

This thing is a marathon, not a sprint..

[TexasCajun]

Donald Trump

The Affluenza Candidate!!

[catfish1957]

And is someone who calls women bimbos and menstrual on twitter. Purebred NY sleazeball, through and through.

Bears repeating.

[Will88]

The notion that even one voter changed their vote because of this is ridiculous.

And you were present at all 1,681 caucus venues and can attest to what did and did not happen at each?

[DoughtyOne]

Reasoned Conservatives (in their eyes)...

[Techjock]

It doesn’t matter who sent what mailer. Get serious about winning or go home. Someone will always be telling lies and manipulating voters. I would prefer it weren’t Republicans, but the dishonest tactics are unfortunately part of any campaign. A winning candidate builds a large enough lead heading into election day to weather 11th hour shenanigans.

[miss marmelstein]

If there was no chance that a Carson voter would go to Cruz or Rubio, why were their surrogates telling voters that Carson had dropped out? What would have been the point? According to your post, that would have been a total waste of time.

Somebody is wrong here but it isn’t me.

[TexasCajun]

Carson supportes are stupid fools if they changed their vote.

If I told ya Trump was going back to running his empire would you vote for Cruz?

[katiedidit1]

No outrage over the Carson supporter that challenged Cruz being on the ballot in Illinois. Did Carson every make any comment on that?

[Techjock]

You’re right. A do over vote would absolutely result in a statewide Carson victory. You do realize Carson is bitching about coming in FOURTH place? He was 14 points behind Rubio, the third place candidate. FOURTEEN POINTS behind. Carson needs to get his campaign’s act together or go home.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Well since no one with half a brain and or a smart phone would be so stupid to believe such a rumor and change their vote because of it, it’s a moot point.

Heck, anyone stupid enough to believe that, shouldn’t be allowed to vote to begin with.

[upsdriver]

I see you’ve been posting a number of things about the Iowa election. Have you seen this and what are your thoughts?

https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/america-do-you-know-what-time-it-really-is/

First paragraph;

The caucus I attended was so disorganized. The process we used to vote tonight was so different then other years. You used to divide up according to the candidate you supported and went into a separate room and voted. The votes were counted in front of everybody and then handed in.” said a disenchanted Iowa Caucus goer.

[TangoLimaSierra]

Well, if his buddy Jimmah Carter had been there this wouldn’t have happened.