Posted on 02/03/2016 2:29:45 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
On Wednesday morning, two days after losing the Iowa Republican caucus to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump accused the Texas senator of stealing the election. According to Trump, Cruz’s campaign committed “fraud” by sending direct mail pieces to lapsed Republican voters and by spreading public reports that pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson might be dropping out of the race.
On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of spreading false rumors about his campaign suspending its bid for the GOP nomination. Cruz’s people had been pushing a report that originated with CNN, which reported that Carson was planning on going home to Florida after the caucus instead of traveling to New Hampshire or South Carolina.
With his poor showing and diminishing numbers, it was not outlandish to deduce from this that Carson was toying with the idea of dropping out. Turns out he wasn't. It turns out Carson only planned to briefly return home so he could grab some "fresh clothes." Part of the incident can be chalked up to the ambiguous comments coming from Carson's amateurish campaign and the other part to Cruz’s campaign doing what campaigns tend to do: push narratives and stories that help them win elections.
But unless new evidence emerges, Trump's accusations of fraud and illegality are as absurd as his calls for a new election. Moreover, even if we believed Trump's charges, under no scenario does he win Iowa.
Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
Let’s say deception was afoot. Where is the evidence that the CNN story or the Cruz tactic changed the dynamics of the race at all? Carson's RealClearPolitics polling average was 7.7 percent-with some of the better polling putting him at 9 percent. One poll even had him at 10 percent. He finished the night with 9.3 percent of the vote. This seems right, and probably a little better than expected. Carson's numbers had taken a nosedive since peaking on Nov. 1st, and there was no evidence that a Carson surge was underway. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Even if we concede, for the sake of discussion, that Carson lost two or even three thousands voters to the rumor (which is pushing it), nothing changes. Even if Carson finished at 10 percent or 12 percent, the political outcome is the same. To believe Trump was cheated out of the race, you have to accept that Carson lost more than six thousand supporters, and all of them went to Cruz. Well, Carson pulled in a little over 17,300 votes.
In truth, it’s far more likely that any Carson defecting voters would have dispersed somewhat evenly among the other major candidates. Let's go big, though, and say Carson lost 15,000 supporters. According to a not-very-scientific NBC poll in early January, Cruz and Trump were tied as the second choice of Carson supports, at 26 percent each. Trump would have been in the same place. In a more scientific and more recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Trump was tied with Marco Rubio as second choice. Trump's favorability tracked way below that of every other candidate except Chris Christie. Considering the Rubio surge, it's far more plausible that Carson's lost votes would have gone to Rubio and pushed Trump into third place.
Now, I realize nothing is going to change the minds of Trump and his fans. Believing they were cheated out of Iowa is almost a philosophical necessity. The story helps Trump continue to latch onto to polls as unvarnished Truth and dismiss the idea that he has ever really lost at anything. But even if we believe Cruz cheated, none of the outcomes lead to a Trump victory.
A serious comment:
Steve King is the reason Cruz won Iowa.
He’s an old friend of mine from way back, and I can tell you, he is the master of caucus/convention politics.
That’s how he won his congressional seat in the first place.
In Iowa, you have to exceed 35% in a primary, or else it goes to a special session of the district GOP caucus.
Steve’s original four way primary for Congress went to convention, and he won it with the most brilliant tactics I’ve ever seen in my life. And that was with the party poohbahs fighting him every step of the way. He cleaned their clock and picked their pockets.
What you saw Monday night was nothing more than another example of his brilliance. Give him any advantage and he’s going to slaughter you.
So, in your mind, if Hillary might do it, it’s okay for Cruz to do it first?
You whine well!
Write my name down?????
Wow, you are becoming as unhinged as your candidate Trump.
Take a few deep breaths, and picture a Cruz presidency where a conservative is finally POTUS again.
Best wishes!!!!.
Did Trump say that he (Trump) should have won Iowa? I don’t see that anywhere. He’s saying Cruz cheated. Which he did. Used to be Freepers got upset when a candidate cheated.
Bingo. Try and tell this to Cruz supporters who are suddenly all for cheating and lying their way to victory. And anyone who objects is a cry baby!
Cruz cheated and apologized for it. That gives Trump every right to go after Cruz to make sure it does not happen again. H e did congratulate Cruz. Then he found out about the cheating and it infuriated him as it should have. It seems some people only want just a little bit of political incorrectness. When you get lots of it then it starts to wear on them.
So cheating is ok, if there is no measurable net gain to the cheating party?
Who do you think brought the lie to the attention of the public?
After the NH primary it will be a non issue.
Sorelosetrump
This whole thing is just chaff, tossed out by the noise machine. Its a big part of why its such a waste to focus on whatever the media noise machine is pumping out today. Its rather like watching the weather channel. They are hyperventilating about the storm of the century and you look outside and its a fine day. Just tune them out.
By this time we pretty well know the character of the men running for office. The noise-makers want you to make you doubt what you know, but they really are really telling you who they themselves are.
I don’t picture a Cruz presidency at all. He’s being pushed by some media types because he’ll be crushed by the Clinton machine. Plus, no one wants a regional candidate who only appeals to evangelicals but knows how to lie, cheat and evade his FEC forms.
If current trend holds, the number of Cubans seeking entry through Laredo will be about 24,700
this fiscal year. That’s about 60 percent more than 2014’s 15,600 and nearly twice as many
as 2013’s 12,445.
**************
What I don’t understand is why they are going to South America and them coming up thru
the Isthmus of Panama. If this is a gov’t deal why not come in thru Florida?
If you don’t want the candidate you hate to win,,sure. Why else would the Cruz team even try to persuade Carson voters to join them by using this ruse?
Wasn’t quite like that and also, you’re not a very good liar. That’s a good thing. At least it used to be.
BS
Carson actually outperformed his polls by 2 points.
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