Posted on 02/02/2016 2:43:05 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
Going into the Iowa caucuses, there were some questions that no one was able to answer with any confidence. Would Donald Trump's voters show up when it counts? Was Ted Cruz's on-the-ground field operation as good as advertised? Was Marco Rubio closing strong and earning some of his media hype? Would someone please wake Ben Carson?
Everything is quite a bit clearer now.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the hotly contested Iowa Republican caucus on Monday night, fending off a tough challenge from Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
With 99% of precincts in, Cruz led with 28% of the vote versus 24% for Trump, 23% for Rubio, and 9% for fourth-place Dr. Ben Carson.
There's no shortage of chatter this morning about the results, but let’s try to cut through the noise and break things down from a pitch-vs-hype-vs-truth perspective...
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
Everyone said that a large turnout was supposed to favor Trump and that a small turnout would faver Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz made the opposite happen!
Listening to Hannity and Levin this evening, you'd think Cruz won the whole enchilada! Their enthusiasm for Cruz is .... (fill in the blank)
Cruz got 51,649 votes. 21,810 more than Santorum in 2012.
Delegates? Cruz got 31%, Trump and Rubio tied at 27% each. Carson 11%, Paul 1% of delegates.
Cruz #1 in both high income and low income areas
Cruz #1 in both high evangelical and low evangelical areas
Cruz #1 in sparsely populated areas. Rubio #1 in densely populated
Cruz was #1 in 55 of 99 Counties. Tied for #1 in 1 county.
Cruz was #2 in 37 of 99 Counties. Cruz was #3 in 6 of 99 Counties.
Trump was #1 in 38 1/2 counties. Rubio #1 in 5 counties.
Rubio didn’t make the top 3 in 8 counties. Didn’t make the top 4 in 2.
For Cruz to improve, he needs to do better in densely populated areas, probably by emphasizing no corporate welfare and similar populist libertarian positions; and expanding his ground game to cities, especially pentecostal churches.
For Rubio to catch up, he needs to do better in every metric. He cannot afford to come in 4th or 5th anywhere as he did in 6 Iowa counties. He must do better in both high income and low income areas.
Rubio must do better with many, many different demographic groups and factions.
The Carson-Paul-Huckabee-Santorum 18% are most likely to go to Cruz. 2nd most likely to go to Trump.
Very few of them would choose Rubio.
The Bush-Kasich-Cristie 7% would lean Rubio.
The path for Rubio does not look good.
Many in the establishment will see it and seek to cut a deal with Trump. Trump loves to make deals and will become the establishment candidate. The establishment will know it is a gamble as nobody knows what Trump would do if he were to win. Trump is a gamble for everyone.
Tell Teddy to enjoy his only win.
Can we get serious? Cruz was Jesus to the evangelicals. Trump actually did far better than I anticipated. But the What Would Jesus Do evangelicals are a micro of Americans... If Cruz does not take NH does that mean Jesus lost? So what will Cruz do is the reality, how will he sell himself to those northeast heathen?
I thought it was Jesus that gave Cruz the victory.
What, no thanks be to Jesus? Is Jesus going to let the heathen win in the rest of primaries. I guess Cruz is as close to Jesus as we can get!!!
Immoral and ungodly, I can think of presidents far more deserving than the hard-working, nondrinking, nonsmoking, Donald Trump! Let’s start with FDR, fast-forward to LBJ, on to Clinton and then to Barak Obama, and it is toss-up as to which one, LBJ, Clinton, or Obama is the most immoral and ungodly!
26% to be exact are under age 18.
Cuz spent most of the summer organizing and campaigning in the south. Altogether he hasn't even campaigned for a year yet including all states. Plus Rubio spent much more in Iowa than Ted Cruz didn
Has only one more delegate than him.
Iowa is not about delegates. It's about momentum.
Will be behind him and Rubio after New Hampshire
Cruz is polling better than Rubio in New Hampshire, and so far Cruz has done better than than his poll numbers suggest.
NH will turnout SIX TIMES more voters based on state population. Iowa caucuses are notorious for abysmal overall turnout.
That is the reason Iowa results do not portend what is coming in other 49 states.
So why include babies and under age children in your post?
And Texas will turn out VASTLY more voters than New Hampshire, as will California which alone alone which will account for over 10% of all delegates to the convention, with Cruz favoured to win both states as at the moment. So what is your point?
But now that Hillary and Bernie are in a tie, will the Dem voters continue to cross over, or will they stay Dem, so they can vote for their favorite?
If there was a lot of Dem crossover, I would be curious if it came more from Hillary's side or Bernie's side.
You did not comprehend what I said. I must assume you do nor have a degree from STEM.
So I will make it easier for you:
Iowa population aprox 3.11 million.
NH population aprox 1.32 million
357,983 people voted in Iowa caucus.
= 11.5% of population
NH turnout could be be 50-60% of population.
= between 600,000 & 700,000 voters.
I’m not in anyone’s camp right now... but I thought the Carson is quitting announcements may have helped him push through. That said, it was quite a leftist move.
Ted apologized for his o overzealous staff. It did kinda appear like CNN was reporting that Carson was bowing out.
“Cruz is polling better than Rubio in New Hampshire, and so far Cruz has done better than than his poll numbers suggest. “
1-2 points, and that’s tied with Kaitsch (sp?)
“Iowa is not about delegates. It’s about momentum.”
Which if history is any indication, there isnt any.
Guadalcanal was closely fought with lots of US casualties in a pestilent, strategically unimportant theater. But it proved the hitherto relentlessly triumphant Japanese COULD be beaten. That seemed important at the time.
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