The Long Game: A Guide to Counting Delegates

The Weekly Standard ^ | 02-01-2016 | Jay Cost

[brothers4thID]

The conventional wisdom about Republican presidential nominations goes something like this: Either (1) a single candidate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then sweeps the rest of the field; or (2) the winner in Iowa fails to take New Hampshire, and we wait a few weeks for South Carolina and Nevada to figure out who the nominee will be. Either way, the whole thing wraps up early, and the later contests do not matter.

These scenarios have played out, though, when the top candidates have been generally acceptable to the majority of Republicans. Under those circumstances, letting Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada sort out the candidates makes sense: The rest of the party will endorse that selection.

But the two candidates at the top of the heap right now -- Donald Trump and Ted Cruz --leave a significant swath of the Republican party (if not the voters, then at least the politicians, donors, and consultants who dominate American politics) feeling quite cold. This could mean a lengthy nomination battle that stretches all the way to the California primary in June.

[Menthops]

Do not believe these anti-Trump MSM polls.

The MSM hates Trump and conservatives almost as much as the GOPe does.

[Mr Apple]

Trump will sweep the field.

Absolutely.
And total doofus Jeb should head on out to the swamps now and resume catching frogs.

[Jim Noble]

if not the voters, then at least the politicians, donors, and consultants who dominate American politics

So perhaps we will need the Ceausescu solution after all.

[arthurus]

I do not think they want Cruz either. Rubio would be a good sub for the pitiful Bush.The nominee, if chosen by the Rovian Establishment can get the nomination without winning it.He only has to be a respectable second or third place so long as the first place candidate does not get the requisite 50+% in 8 states. Then it goes to wheeling and dealing and the greatest dealer of them all can be cut out of the process altogether.

[Mr Apple]

Hillary 43% Trump 38%

I'll bet that total scumbag clown Al Franken wishes this were true.

[ripnbang]

How’s that internship at National Review working out?

[brothers4thID]

I have never been employed by the Weekly Standard or the National review.

I have been employed by a very conservative US Senator, since retired.

[Fai Mao]

Minnesota, the land of leftist. That Trump is that close is actually good news.

[ctdonath2]

If you understand how the primary really works, you’ll figure out how someone lost in single digit polling can take the nomination.

[ripnbang]

Hence...internship...implying not employed.

[heights]

Your average Democrat has no idea who Cruz is.

[Flick Lives]

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz —leave a significant swath of the Republican party (if not the voters, then at least the politicians, donors, and consultants who dominate American politics) feeling quite cold.

---

I can’t believe the writer wrote this sentence. He’s as much as admitting that the donor class has been left out. Well boo frikin hoo.

[glorgau]

> Cruz Washington Establishment?

Those people _hate_ him.

[DoughtyOne]

Please VOTE in the Free Republic Caucus 01/24/2016.

Thank you.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Or, Trump could just run the table and its a real short game. :-)

[brothers4thID]

Again, please read the article. And/or explain your version of “running the table”.

[caveat emptor]

When the 2%'ers start dropping out, all of the "anybody but Trump" vote has a clearer choice and all of a sudden Trump's 60% unfavorable ratings come home to roost. Because if he can't win 51% of the vote in the later voting states, he can't win.

I agree, and have since I realized he had and will continue to have a low favorability rating. But I'm not sure he won't be able somehow to hornswoggle his way in.

[Nita Nupress]

Ironically enough, the rules were written to make that happen, just not with Trump in mind.

LOL. Thanks for that ray of warm sunshine through my soul.

Hey, RNC! It sucks that you changed all those primary rules, doesn't it? Bless yer hearts...

[brothers4thID]

Keep in mind, that the same applies to the “anybody but Bush” vote.

[octex]

It doesn’t surprise me the liberal Minnesota gives Rubio a positive favorable rating. Rubio is more liberal than Conservative. ...Think about their elections of Ventura and Franken.