Posted on 01/17/2016 7:12:04 PM PST by kik5150
While the media has been largely consumed by examining the GOP front-runner, asking about second choices is the key to understanding how the race will likely develop once candidates drop in viability or drop out altogether. In other words, who stands to topple Donald Trump once the field narrows?
The conventional thinking is that there is a schism between âestablishmentâ and ânon-establishmentâ voters in the Republican Party. If this holds true, then we should see ânon-establishmentâ voters supporting other ânon-establishmentâ candidates once their first choice is out of the race. The NBC|Survey Monkey online poll for the week of December 28, 2015 to January 3, 2016 provides a look at whether the pattern holds true. For most candidates, the second choice preference follows this pattern â but not always. The second choice for all candidates is a non-establishment candidate. Around 14% of registered Republicans who are not certain they will vote for their first choice support Trump, while around 22% support Ted Cruz. In fact, nearly every candidate except for Trump does better on second choices, suggesting that Trumpâs numbers will soften in the coming months as candidates drop out, no matter who those candidates are.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
They'll lean toward another Christian candidate or plan to stay home.
Carson supporters, for the most part, are non-political, so they don't understand politics but they are true believers, not understanding those on "our side" being subjected to unbelieveable demeaning attacks!
Poll: Trump leads, but when it comes to second choice, Cruz is on top
Those Carson supporters will NOT support Trump, who feels comfortable to tossing out humiliating comments toward their choice!I'm betting they'll go with they guy they know for sure is at least a qualified citizen.
I will tell the Seattle Seahawks how their runner up status last year really meant they “won.”
My fear is that after the March 1 primary,
only 3 remain in the race....Trump Cruz & Rubio or Bush.
That gives advantage to the establishment candidate. Rinse and repeat of 2012.
"Surprise! You'll Never Guess Who Was The Most Accurate Pollster This Election Season..."
Nov. 7, 2012, 1:56 PM
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies...
http://www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-polls-of-2012-election-obama-romney-ppp-daily-kos-gallup-rasmussen-2012-11
I think that’s part of the Cruz strategy — he’s everybody’s second choice. As the field winnows, that will boost his numbers. (At least, that’s the strategy.)
He’s also the one Republican candidate in a recent poll who can beat Trump head to head (precisely because he’s everybody’s second choice. Take their candidate out and they go to Cruz.)
You must have misunderstood me....I said a winner. You know, some one that can win the election.
Give that man a set of steak knives!
ABC - Always Be Closing
General Election polling is much different from Primary/Caucus polling.
2008- ARG, Reuters, and CNN/ORC had Romney +3 and +6 respectively the week of the caucus. Huckabee won by 9.
2012 - On the day of the Caucus, CNN Exit Poll had Romney 25%, Paul 23% and Santorum 18%. Santorum won by less than 30 votes. There’s too many rural princints not taken into account which puts too much weight on the larger areas that can skew results.
Cruz is going to win IA by at least 10 points (possibly more). If the Caucuses were today:
Cruz: 37%
Trump: 23%
Rubio: 14%
Carson: 7%
Bush: 5%
Paul: 4%
Huckabee: 4%
Christie: 3%
Fiorina: 2%
Santorum/Kasich/Others: 1%
This will reset the polls somewhat. NH will be closer, but if Trump doesn’t have a meltdown Howard Dean moment losing big in IA, he’ll still be the favorite in NH. But Cruz is on a NH tour right now where the goal will be 2nd place and 20% to get delegates. It will look something like this:
Trump: 24%
Cruz: 20%
Rubio: 15%
Christie: 12%
Kasich: 11%
Bush: 11%
Fiorina: 4%
Carson: 3%
Others: <1%
Trump wins but it’s not as dominant, setting up SC. Cruz’s game will be very strong and Cruz will come out on top.
Cruz: 32%
Trump: 25%
Rubio: 15%
Bush: 10%
Carson: 8%
Christie: 7%
Others: 3%
Kasich, Chrisie, Fiorina, Santorum, and Huckabee are gone by then end of SC. Bush and Rubio stay in for the NV Caucuses.
Here, Cruz uses his organization and as a Caucus to once again beat Trump. Rubio’s ground game never materializes and he and Bush are further back, with Bush finally dropping out.
Cruz: 40%
Trump: 35%
Rubio: 15%
Bush: 10%
From there it’s onto Super Tuesday where Cruz wins the SEC primary.
Lol!
Second isn’t much consolation when you can’t even see the lead horse. LOL!
I think you’re exactly right. There will be a great winnowing of candidates after Iowa. If Cruz wins and picks up the lion’s share of second choice voters he will have the momentum.
Well if Reuters says that you can take it to the Bank of Rwanda.
If PMSLSDNBC says so, it must come from tingle legs Chrissy Matthews.
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