"Surprise! You'll Never Guess Who Was The Most Accurate Pollster This Election Season..."
Nov. 7, 2012, 1:56 PM
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies...
http://www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-polls-of-2012-election-obama-romney-ppp-daily-kos-gallup-rasmussen-2012-11
General Election polling is much different from Primary/Caucus polling.
2008- ARG, Reuters, and CNN/ORC had Romney +3 and +6 respectively the week of the caucus. Huckabee won by 9.
2012 - On the day of the Caucus, CNN Exit Poll had Romney 25%, Paul 23% and Santorum 18%. Santorum won by less than 30 votes. There’s too many rural princints not taken into account which puts too much weight on the larger areas that can skew results.
Cruz is going to win IA by at least 10 points (possibly more). If the Caucuses were today:
Cruz: 37%
Trump: 23%
Rubio: 14%
Carson: 7%
Bush: 5%
Paul: 4%
Huckabee: 4%
Christie: 3%
Fiorina: 2%
Santorum/Kasich/Others: 1%
This will reset the polls somewhat. NH will be closer, but if Trump doesn’t have a meltdown Howard Dean moment losing big in IA, he’ll still be the favorite in NH. But Cruz is on a NH tour right now where the goal will be 2nd place and 20% to get delegates. It will look something like this:
Trump: 24%
Cruz: 20%
Rubio: 15%
Christie: 12%
Kasich: 11%
Bush: 11%
Fiorina: 4%
Carson: 3%
Others: <1%
Trump wins but it’s not as dominant, setting up SC. Cruz’s game will be very strong and Cruz will come out on top.
Cruz: 32%
Trump: 25%
Rubio: 15%
Bush: 10%
Carson: 8%
Christie: 7%
Others: 3%
Kasich, Chrisie, Fiorina, Santorum, and Huckabee are gone by then end of SC. Bush and Rubio stay in for the NV Caucuses.
Here, Cruz uses his organization and as a Caucus to once again beat Trump. Rubio’s ground game never materializes and he and Bush are further back, with Bush finally dropping out.
Cruz: 40%
Trump: 35%
Rubio: 15%
Bush: 10%
From there it’s onto Super Tuesday where Cruz wins the SEC primary.