Interesting analysis. I don’t think this is going to sway the outcome this time around. There is a larger player in the game and He always gets His way in the END.
Overtime Politics releases IA next week. I wonder if CBS or CNN will have something. What happens other than a bunch of suicide watches on Fox if Trump wins IA by 10? Will, Rove, Kraauthammer, York, Meegyn, Goldberg, etc etc will have to be watched carefully.
I don’t think margin of error is figured that way.
I believe that actual sampling can be weighted to compensate for the proportionality problem he mentions.
I think the MOE error is more related to how small the sampling of the poll is versus how large the expected voting population would be.
I agree the author is being sloppy, but he has a MAJOR point: the MOE of the subsets are hinky. I looked at them - some as high as 9.5%
The Iowa poll is worthless.
Fox News is dead to me.
Wow...good thing I longer have access or pay for FAUX news.
One America News...via subscription on Roku and other devices.