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Polls may actually underestimate Trump's support, study finds
dailypress.com ^ | David Lauter

Posted on 12/21/2015 5:29:30 AM PST by RoosterRedux

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some polls may actually be understating his support, according to a new study.

The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally does better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.

Why is that, and which polls are more accurate -- the online surveys that tend to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have generally shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer?

Morning Consult ran an experiment: It polled 2,397 potential Republican voters earlier this month using three different methods -- a traditional telephone survey with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones, an online survey and an interactive dialing technique that calls people by telephone and asks them to respond to recorded questions by hitting buttons on their phone.

By randomly assigning people to the three different approaches and running all at the same time, they hoped to eliminate factors that might cause results to vary from one poll to another.

The experiment confirmed that "voters are about six points more likely to support Trump when they're taking the poll online then when they're talking to a live interviewer," said Morning Consult's polling director, Kyle Dropp.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailypress.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; immigration; polls; trump; trumpwasright
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To: RitaOK
It's gonna be a landslide in the primaries/caucuses and the general.

There are tons of Trump supporters who are in positions and places and societies where it is politically incorrect to show their support openly. That's why they support Trump in the first place.

He says what they would like to say but can't.

61 posted on 12/21/2015 9:35:39 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to light - John Milton, Paradise Lost)
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To: RitaOK

Spot on!!

BTTT!


62 posted on 12/21/2015 9:45:14 AM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: RitaOK
Cuomo in full melt down.

LOL. Not exactly full melt down. He had , I think, Ryan Lizza on, and the subject of Donald Trump asking Cankles for an apology came up. So his face went all serious and sideways as he asked him (paraphrase) Do you think Donald Trump has the credibility himself to ask for an apology from Hillary Clinton. Usually he just looks witless but this was witless with fury.

63 posted on 12/21/2015 10:26:43 AM PST by Stentor
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To: Amntn

It was an interesting study.


64 posted on 12/21/2015 10:41:31 AM PST by DoughtyOne ((It's beginning to look like "Morning in America" again. Comment on YouTube under Trump Free Ride.))
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To: alloysteel

I have questions to whether Ted Cruz is even electable.

Like it or not, the question of his eligibility to be elected president is an argument even we political junkies are still arguing over. How many lofo voters are going to vote for him when the question of his natural born citizenship is brought up during the campaign and legal action to disqualify him if he wins is a possibility? The issue of NBC is hardly a settled matter. The only reason 0b0la’s election wasn’t contested is because the gutless GOPe refused to and no one outside of them had standing to challenge him. Do you think the Dem’s won’t challenge his eligibility if he wins the election? I don’t.

And let’s not forget, there are probably not as many rock-ribbed conservatives that live and breathe the Constitution as some estimate.

Every time we lose an election, we hear the same old excuse blaming it on our candidate not being pure enough for the evangelicals, or conservative enough for the true conservatives or whatever other group stayed home because this candidate wasn’t “enough” for them to vote for him.

Personally, I like Ted Cruz and he was my guy until Donald Trump jumped in and lit the joint on fire.

But I look at the crowds and enthusiasm that Trump brings, and the obvious appeal for crossover or disaffected voters that he has.

Couple that with the questions I’ve illustrated with Cruz, his lack of appeal to voters that are not die hard conservatives and because of that, I’m going with Trump.


65 posted on 12/21/2015 10:46:58 AM PST by Nacho Bidnith (Leftists can see racism everywhere except the mirror)
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To: RitaOK

Trump is a rare bird. The period from the first part of February through the first part of March is going to be very very entertaining.


66 posted on 12/21/2015 10:48:13 AM PST by DoughtyOne ((It's beginning to look like "Morning in America" again. Comment on YouTube under Trump Free Ride.))
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To: Amntn

Thanks!


67 posted on 12/21/2015 11:00:48 AM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS THE CHRIST becuase HE first loved me (1 John 4:19)!)
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To: RoosterRedux

BTTT


68 posted on 12/21/2015 1:01:46 PM PST by Enlightened1
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To: Nacho Bidnith

That is the way it is. What you said. Cruz is a fine conservative, but what’s he ever going to do with it in this climate?

It sells nowhere outside of evangelical circles in the South but gets spotty in the North. He has baggage in relationships and that has always been the problem with a senator running for president.

True, Obama was an exception, but even Obama is no FORCE in the same way as TRUMP. TRUMP is 69 years old. He has been around the stump a time or two and is devoted to the America that was strong, resolute, and committed to excellence in every institution.

Losing all of that has brought forth one man who resents it and with the proper and old fashion convictions to push back, at last.

The rest of the field are in knee britches compared to the resolve of TRUMP.


69 posted on 12/21/2015 1:10:00 PM PST by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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To: RoosterRedux
Being part of a newscast is significantly better than a paid advertisement.

Precisely. And Trump repeatedly points out that he's done more with less money than any other candidate. Something to consider given Washington's chronic addiction to wasteful spending. A man who knows how to get real value for a dollar would be a refreshing change, and something most voters can readily appreciate.

70 posted on 12/21/2015 1:29:02 PM PST by AustinBill (consequence is what makes our choices real)
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To: ExTexasRedhead

:)


71 posted on 12/21/2015 8:14:47 PM PST by ZULU (Mt. McKinley is the tallest mountain in N. America. Denali is Aleut for "scam artist.")
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To: RoosterRedux
Pollsters underestimating Trump's support? The hell you say!

/sarc

72 posted on 12/24/2015 7:13:23 AM PST by simpson96
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